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Timaru District Council – Population and Household Projections 2013-2063
REPORT COMMISSIONED BY TIMARU DISTRICT COUNCIL –
AUGUST 2014 NATALIE JACKSON
1 August 22, 2014
Timaru District Council – Population and Household
Projections 2013-2063
Referencing information:
Jackson, N.O. (2014). Timaru District Council – Population and Household projections
2013-2063. Report Commissioned by Timaru District Council. August 2014. . Natalie
Jackson Demographics Ltd as a sub-contract to the National Institute of Demographic
and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), University of Waikato.
Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd1
39 Coronation Rd | Morrinsville 3300 | New Zealand
Email: demographics@nataliejackson.net | visit us at: www.nataliejackson.net
Te Rūnanga Tātari Tatauranga | National Institute of Demographic and Economic
Analysis | Te Whare Wānanga o Waikato | The University of Waikato
Private Bag 3105 | Hamilton 3240 | Waikato, New Zealand
Email: nojackso@waikato.ac.nz | visit us at: www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea/
Disclaimer
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this
document is true and accurate at the time of publication/release, changed
circumstances after publication may impact on the accuracy of that information.
1 Natalie Jackson is Director of Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd, Professor of Demography
at the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA), University of
Waikato, and was Foundation Director of the Institute between 2010 and 2014.
2 August 22, 2014
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 4
Preamble ........................................................................................................................................ 6
1. Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 7
2. Results – Population Projections ......................................................................................... 13
3. Results – Household/Dwelling Projections ......................................................................... 23
Appendices .................................................................................................................................. 30
References .................................................................................................................................... 40
3 August 22, 2014
List of Tables
Table 1-1: Timaru District, Base Population by Age and Sex (2013-Census Based ERP). ...... 9
Table 1-2: Timaru District, Life Expectancy Assumptions by Age, Sex and Projection
Variant 2013-2063 ........................................................................................................................ 10
Table 1-3: Timaru District, Total Fertility Rate Assumptions by Projection Variant 2013-2063
........................................................................................................................................................ 12
Table 2-1: Projected Population of the Timaru District 2013-2063 and Comparison with
Statistics New Zealand Projections (2006-2031), by Projection Variant ................................ 14
Table 2-2: Projected Population of the Timaru District 2013-2063 by Projection Variant and
Broad Age Group ........................................................................................................................ 15
Table 2-3: Projected Contribution to Change 2013-2033 and 2033-2063 by Broad Age
Group and Projection Variant, Timaru District ......................................................................... 18
Table 2-4: Projected Numbers 0-14 and 65+ Years 2013-2063 by Projection Variant, Timaru
District ............................................................................................................................................ 20
Table 3-1: Projected Number of Households by Family and Household Type and
Projection Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District ........................................................................... 24
List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Timaru District, Estimated Net Migration by Age (Number) 1997-01, 2002-06,
2008-13 .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 1-2: Timaru District, Estimated Net Migration Rates by Sex, Projection Variant and
Age ................................................................................................................................................ 11
Figure 1-3: Percentage of Women Giving Birth by Five-Year Age Group, Canterbury
Region, 1996, 2001, 2006 ............................................................................................................. 12
Figure 2-1: Projected Population of the Timaru District 2013-2063 and Comparison with
Statistics New Zealand Projections (2006-2031), by Projection Variant ................................ 13
Figure 2-2: Projected Percentage Aged 65+ Years 2013-2063 by Projection Variant,
Timaru District ............................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 2-3: Projected Age-Sex Structure in 2033 by Projection Variant, Timaru District ...... 17
Figure 2-4: Projected Numbers by Broad Age Group and Projection Variant, 2013-2063,
Timaru District ............................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 2-5: Projected Components of Change 2013-2063 by Projection Variant, Timaru
District ............................................................................................................................................ 21
Figure 3-1: Projected Number of Households by Projection Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru
District ............................................................................................................................................ 23
Figure 3-2: Projected Number of Households by Household Type and Projection Variant,
2013-2063, Timaru District ............................................................................................................ 25
Figure 3-3: Projected Number of Family Households by Family Household Type and
Projection Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District ........................................................................... 27
4 August 22, 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents population and household projections for the Timaru District
Council Territorial Local Authority Area, for the period 2013-2063. The projections are
based on the 2013-Census based ERP, released on August 14th 2014. A detailed
methodology outlines the cohort component projection method and the
development of the underlying assumptions.
High, Medium and Low projections are provided. While the medium variant indicates
the most likely scenario, trends over time are likely to fluctuate between the upper
and lower bounds.
Under the medium variant the population of the Timaru District is projected to
increase to around 48,853 (+7.6 per cent) by 2033, peaking around 2038 at 49,041
persons and declining very slightly over the remaining period to 48,660 in 2063.
Projected numbers under the high variant reach 52,168 in 2033 (+14.9 per cent) and
continue to increase steadily to 59,829 in 2063 (+31.8 per cent over 2013). Under the
low variant, numbers peak around 2028 at 46,182 persons (+1.7 per cent) and
decline steadily, to 39,513 in 2063 (-13.0 per cent over 2013).
Projected numbers under the medium variant are slightly higher in 2031 than
projected by Statistics New Zealand in 2006, in part because of the higher 2013 base
population, and in part because of more positive migration assumptions ensuing
from the 2008-2013 census, which showed a significant slowing of earlier loss at 20-24
years. Projected numbers under the low variant in 2031 are somewhat higher again,
for the same reasons, while numbers under the high variant are fractionally lower, in
part because greater numbers at 65+ years generate their own slowing momentum.
In keeping with trends elsewhere the projections indicate significant structural ageing
of the population under all projection variants, with the proportion aged 65+ years
increasing from 20.1 per cent in 2013 to 30.3, 31.0 and 31.9 per cent in 2033 under the
high, medium and low variants respectively. Structural ageing continues across the
remaining period but at a slower pace, with those proportions reaching 32.3, 34.3
and 36.5 per cent in 2063.
As elsewhere these trends mean that virtually all future growth in the Timaru District
will be at older ages. Between 2013 and 2033, all Timaru District’s growth under the
medium variant (+3,453) will be accounted for at 65+ years, offsetting decline at all
younger ages. This is similarly the case under the low variant, where overall growth of
422 persons is indicated. Only under the high variant is there likely to be growth at 0-
24 years, with that at 65+ years still contributing the somewhat greater proportion. In
5 August 22, 2014
each case these trends continue between 2033 and 2063, but growth at older ages
generally levels off after the baby boomer cohorts pass through each age group.
The projected trends to slower growth, and, under the medium and low variants, to
negative growth within the projection period are explained by the Timaru population
shifting from natural increase (more births than deaths) to natural decline
respectively from 2033, 2023, and 2018 under the high, medium and low variants. This
follows a shift to more elderly (65+ years) than children (0-14 years) already extant in
the Timaru District, and also evidenced in around one-fifth of New Zealand’s TA’s.
Reflecting these demographic changes, projected household/dwelling numbers
follow a similar trajectory to the population projections. Family households (couple
without family, one-parent and two-parent) increase under both the high and
medium variants, but under the medium variant numbers peak in 2033 at 13,642 then
decline to just above their starting point in 2063. With more older people living alone,
a reflection of structural ageing, one-person households increase under all variants,
although peak in 2048 under the low variant.
The majority of the overall increase in family households is in couple-without children
families (albeit these decline overall under the low variant). These households
contain three different sets of couples: those who do not yet have children, those
who will not or did not have children, and those whose children have left home. The
types of dwellings that such people seek—and their location—is likely to differ from
those sought by one- and two-parent families with children, whose numbers continue
to grow across the projection period only under the high variant assumptions. Under
both the medium and variant assumptions, both of these family types decline. The
future dwelling demand of the Timaru District will thus be increasingly driven by non-
family households, predominantly comprised of one-person and couples without
children, characteristics of population ageing.
Also reflecting population ageing, the gap between projected household and
population numbers increases under the high variant, while it decreases under the
low variant. This is because in the former case there are proportionately more family
households, average household size is higher and declines at a slower rate, while in
the latter case there are proportionately more one-person households, average
household size is lower and declines more rapidly.
A brief discussion on the possible impact on the projections of internal migration
following the Christchurch earthquakes is included at Appendix B. It is plausible that
Timaru District made a small, direct earthquake-related gain, but overall migration
trends indicate that other factors are involved, among which could be an indirect
earthquake effect which reduced previous migration loss, particularly at 20-24 years.
6 August 22, 2014
Preamble
This report presents population and household/dwelling projections for the Timaru District
Council Territorial Local Authority Area, for the period 2013-2063. The projection results
are prefaced by a detailed methodology, with supporting material in Appendices.
The population projections are based on the 2013-Census based ERP, drawn from
Statistics New Zealand ‘Estimated Resident Population (ERP) subnational population by
ethnic group, age, and sex, at 30th June 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2013’, released on August
14th 2014. These are the first ERP data based on the 2013 Census to be made available
by Statistics New Zealand. The ERP is the final revision of census night counts and includes
adjustments for births, deaths and migration occurring between census night (March 5th)
and June 30th 2013, along with further adjustments for people temporarily overseas on
census night, and census night undercount. Further information on the methods used to
derive the June 2013 population estimates is available at: Statistics New Zealand:
Estimated resident population 2013: Data sources and methods
The household/dwelling projections are based on the population projections by age
and sex, to which age-specific rates of the propensity to live in different family and
household types have been applied, according to Statistics New Zealand’s definition of
a private household equating to a private dwelling.
Three sets of projections are provided: ‘high’, ‘medium’ and ‘low’. It is conventional to
see the medium variant as indicating the most likely scenario; however the high and low
variants should be kept in mind at all times. Changing economic, political and social
circumstances can have an impact on the underlying assumptions regarding births,
deaths, and especially migration, and cause trends to fluctuate between the upper and
lower bounds.
When interpreting the results it is also important to remember that population projections
are not forecasts in the sense that they incorporate interventions or circumstances that
may change the demographic future. Rather, they simply indicate what future
population size and structure will be if the underlying assumptions regarding births,
deaths, migration prevail. The household projections based on the population
projections are additionally dependent on current age-specific propensities of living in
different family and household types remaining constant—for example, family
households concentrated at younger and middle adult ages, and single person
households at older ages.
7 August 22, 2014
1. Methodology
The population projections have been developed via the cohort component method,
using a software programme developed by Rowland (2003) and modified to meet our
requirements. This step-wise method first survives, then migrates, reproduces, and finally
‘ages’ the base population, repeating the process for each year of the projection
period using assumptions regarding future mortality, migration and fertility.
The base population for the projections was drawn from the recently released 2013-
census based ERP for June 2013, by age and sex. Numbers are given at Table 1.1 below.
Surviving the population involves determining a base population by age and sex and
surviving it to the next year (or five year period, as we have done here) by applying the
probability of surviving to the next age/age group (px). The probability of surviving to
each age is drawn initially from the ‘Life Table’, a tool via which underlying life
expectancy is calculated for each sex by age. Sub-routines in the modified Rowland
projection software calculate and raise life expectancy over the projection period in
accordance with pre-determined life expectancies applied at the beginning, mid- and
end points of the projection. The precise assumptions, which are based on Statistics New
Zealand’s assumptions to 2031 and the application of regional multipliers to 2063, are
given in Table 1.2.
Migrating the population involves the estimation and application of age- and sex-
specific migration rates to the surviving population separately by age and sex. These
rates are typically both positive and negative for different age-sex groups, irrespective of
whether overall (total) migration is positive or negative. The approach of using age-
specific migration rates differs in one important way from the methodology employed
by Statistics New Zealand, which instead applies a pre-determined and constant
number of migrants to the migration age distribution. Where populations increase or
decrease over time, that approach results in the number of migrants becoming
respectively smaller or larger as a proportion of the changing population, and can be
particularly problematic where population size is small. By instead applying age-specific
migration rates to each successively survived population number by age and sex, the
number of migrants is automatically generated and keeps pace with the unfolding
increase or decrease in the population.
8 August 22, 2014
The estimation of the age-specific migration profile and respective rates is, however, less
straightforward. The process employs a ‘residual migration methodology’ which draws
on past migration data by age and sex and a similar cohort component process. Using
survivorship rates as indicated above, numbers by age and sex at each of the 1996,
2001 and 2006 censuses are survived to the subsequent census (thus 1996-2001, 2001-
2006, 2006-2013), the process simultaneously calculating and removing deaths; recorded
births are drawn from Statistics New Zealand Births and added separately. The resulting
‘expected’ population by age and sex is then compared with the ‘observed’
population at the subsequent census, and the difference taken to approximate net
migration numbers (Figure 1.1). Similar data generated by Statistics New Zealand for the
periods 1997-2001 and 2002-2006 (also shown on Figure 1.1) results in almost identical
numbers and indicates that the method is highly robust.
The resulting migration profiles were distributed to the client and discussed in terms of
which profiles might most closely approximate future ‘high’, ‘medium’ and ‘low’
migration scenarios. Numbers were converted to age-specific rates for each variant as
indicated in Figure 1.2. As a general guide, rates for the 2002-2006 and 2008-2013 periods
were used to develop the ‘high’ variant assumptions, while the ‘low’ assumptions were
based on the average of the three periods, paying attention to the low migration
situation of 1997-2001 but also taking account of successively reducing net loss at 20-24
years. The medium assumptions were set midway between high and low.
Reproducing the population is relatively straightforward, involving the application of
age-specific fertility rates for women aged 15-49 years to the relevant numbers or
women at each age, weighted by each future assumed total fertility rate (TFR2). The
resulting number of births is summed and apportioned into males and females
according to the sex ratio at birth: 105.5 males per 100 females.
The underlying age-specific fertility rates for the Timaru District are based on those for the
Canterbury Region, since these are not available at TA level, and are shown in Figure
1.3—the profile for 2006 was considered the most appropriate assumption for the
2 The TFR is the average number of births a woman would have across her lifetime if she was
to experience each of the age specific rates occurring in that particular year—it is thus a
‘synthetic period rate’ used as a proxy for average family size, because completed family
size can only be calculated for women who have reached age 50.
9 August 22, 2014
projections as this reflects the shift to older age at childbearing. The assumptions
regarding future fertility levels (TFR) for the Timaru District are given in Table 1.4.
The resulting population is then ‘aged’ by inserting births at age 0 (separately for males
and females) and ageing each age group by one year, those aged 1 year becoming
the new cohort at 2 years of age etc. (Where a 5 year age group methodology is used,
births are calculated for a five year period and inserted at age 0-4; each five-year age
group is then aged by five years). Numbers for the upper age groups (here 80-84 and
85+ years) are summed to give the new population at 85+ years.
All major projection assumptions and resulting birth, death and migration numbers are
given at Appendix A.
Table 1-1: Timaru District, Base Population by Age and Sex (2013-Census Based ERP).
Males Females Total
0-4 1,430 1,250 2,690
5-9 1,400 1,290 2,690
10-14 1,470 1,450 2,920
15-19 1,540 1,370 2,920
20-24 1,170 1,120 2,290
25-29 1,030 1,090 2,120
30-34 1,020 1,080 2,100
35-39 1,150 1,280 2,420
40-44 1,410 1,590 3,000
45-49 1,540 1,730 3,280
50-54 1,720 1,820 3,550
55-59 1,580 1,590 3,170
60-64 1,550 1,600 3,140
65-69 1,300 1,360 2,670
70-74 1,060 1,150 2,210
75-79 740 930 1,680
80-84 610 740 1,360
85+ 410 830 1,240
Total 22,100 23,300 45,400
Source: Statistics New Zealand (2014) ERP subnational
population by ethnic group, age, and sex, at 30th June
1996, 2001, 2006, and 2013
10 August 22, 2014
Table 1-2: Timaru District, Life Expectancy Assumptions by Age, Sex and Projection Variant
2013-2063
Figure 1-1: Timaru District, Estimated Net Migration by Age (Number) 1997-01, 2002-06, 2008-
13
Period Males Females Males Females Males Females
2013- 80.2 83.5 79.9 83.2 79.4 83.1
2018- 81.3 84.5 80.8 84.0 80.1 83.7
2023- 82.3 85.4 81.7 84.8 80.8 84.3
2028- 83.3 86.4 82.5 85.6 81.4 84.9
2033- 84.3 87.3 83.3 86.3 82.1 85.4
2038- 85.3 88.3 84.1 87.0 82.6 85.9
2043- 86.3 89.1 84.9 87.7 83.2 86.4
2048- 87.3 90.0 85.7 88.4 83.7 86.9
2053- 88.2 90.7 86.4 89.1 84.2 87.4
2058- 89.1 91.5 87.2 89.7 84.6 87.9
2063 90.0 92.1 87.9 90.3 85.1 88.3
Life expectancy for 2013-2033 is based on Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population
Projection Assumptions 2006 (base)-2031 (2012 Update) for the Timaru District, approximated to
the 2013 base. Assumptions for 2033-2063 apply pro-rata regional multipliers to Statistics New
Zealand's National Population Projection Assumptions 2011 (base)-2061.
High Medium Low
Source: SNZ = Statistics New Zealand Local Population Trends (2007) Table 8
NJD = Jackson and Pawar 2014
-1,200
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
0–4
5–9
10–1
4
15–1
9
20–2
4
25–2
9
30–3
4
35–3
9
40–4
4
45–4
9
50–5
4
55–5
9
60–6
4
65–6
9
70–7
4
75–7
9
80–8
4
85+
Nu
mb
er
SNZ (1997-2001) NJD (1997-2001) SNZ (2002-2006)
NJD (2002-2006) NJD 2008-2013
11 August 22, 2014
Figure 1-2: Timaru District, Estimated Net Migration Rates by Sex, Projection Variant and Age
Note Different scales on Y-Axis
-35.0
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85+
pe
rce
nta
ge
Males
HIGH (M)
MED (M)
LOW (M)
-50.0
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
0-4
5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85+
pe
rce
nta
ge
Females
HIGH (F)
MED (F)
LOW (F)
12 August 22, 2014
Figure 1-3: Percentage of Women Giving Birth by Five-Year Age Group, Canterbury Region,
1996, 2001, 2006
Table 1-3: Timaru District, Total Fertility Rate Assumptions by Projection Variant 2013-2063
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Age-Specific Fertility Rates for Regional Council Areas
1996, 2001, 2006
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
per
cen
tage
1996 2001 2006
High Medium Low
2013- 2.22 2.20 2.18
2018- 2.20 2.08 1.97
2023- 2.19 2.05 1.91
2028- 2.19 2.02 1.84
2033- 2.19 1.99 1.79
2038- 2.19 1.99 1.79
2043- 2.19 1.99 1.79
2048- 2.19 1.99 1.79
2053- 2.19 1.99 1.79
2058- 2.19 1.99 1.79
2063
The TFR for 2013-2033 is based on Statistics New Zealand
Subnational Population Projection Assumptions 2006 (base)-2031
(2012 Update) for the Timaru District. For 2033-2063 the
assumed rates for 2031 are held constant.
13 August 22, 2014
2. Results – Population Projections
Figure 2.1 provides an overview of the projection results (see also Table 2.1). Under the
medium variant the population of the Timaru District is projected to increase to around
48,853 (+7.6 per cent) in 2033, peaking around 2038 at 49,041 persons and declining very
slightly over the remaining projection period to 48,660 in 2063.
Projected numbers under the high variant reach 52,168 in 2033 (+14.9 per cent) and
continue to increase steadily to 59,829 in 2063 (+31.8 per cent over 2013). Under the low
variant, numbers peak around 2028 at 46,182 persons (+1.7 per cent) and decline
steadily, to 39,513 in 2063 (-13.0 per cent over 2013).
Projected numbers under the medium variant are a little higher around 2031-2033 than
those developed in 2006 by Statistics New Zealand, but follow a similar trajectory in
indicating a slowing of growth from that point. Numbers under the high variant (52,168)
in 2031 fall just inside their Statistics New Zealand counterpart (52,600), while those under
the low variant are considerably higher than the Statistics New Zealand projection. In
each case these differences will partly reflect the higher 2013 base population, and for
the medium and low variants, more positive migration assumptions ensuing from the
2008-2013 census data, which showed a significant slowing of earlier loss at 20-24 years.
Figure 2-1: Projected Population of the Timaru District 2013-2063 and Comparison with
Statistics New Zealand Projections (2006-2031), by Projection Variant
39,513
45,400
48,853
48,660
59,829
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2006 2013* 2018* 2023* 2028* 2033* 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
SNZ Low SNZ medium SNZ High
14 August 22, 2014
Table 2-1: Projected Population of the Timaru District 2013-2063 and Comparison with
Statistics New Zealand Projections (2006-2031), by Projection Variant
It should be noted that the improving migration scenario indicated above may or may
not be permanent. As Figure 1.1 earlier showed, improvements were primarily in the
nature of a reduced loss at 20-24 years, as opposed to an actual net gain, while gains at
30-64 years were down on the previous period. The approach here has been to
develop high and medium migration assumptions which approximate the upper and
lower bounds of the average of the two periods. A brief discussion of the migration-
related impact of the Christchurch earthquakes is at Appendix B; in general it would
appear that Timaru made a small direct net migration gain from the Christchurch
earthquakes, but larger gains from elsewhere in New Zealand indicate a broader range
of explanatory factors.
Table 2.2 provides a summary breakdown of projected numbers by age (see Appendix
C1-3 for full tables by age and sex). In keeping with trends elsewhere the data indicate
significant structural ageing of the population under all projection variants, with the
proportion aged 65+ years increasing from 20.1 per cent in 2013 to 30.3, 31.0 and 31.9
per cent in 2033 under the high, medium and low variants respectively (Figure 2.2, see
also Figure 2.3). Structural ageing continues across the remaining period but at a slower
pace, with those proportions reaching 32.3, 34.3 and 36.5 per cent in 2063. The lower
proportions aged 65+ years under the high variant and vice versa under the low variant
primarily reflects the migration assumptions, higher migration resulting in more people at
younger ages. The life expectancy assumptions do of course play a significant role, as
can be seen with somewhat greater numbers at older ages under the high variant
(19,332 and 14,418 aged 65+ years under the high and low variants respectively). At
younger ages, numbers decline under both the medium and low variants—as they do at
some ages even under the high variant (25-64 years across the period 2013-2033, and
65-74 years between 2033 and 2063)—reflecting the passage of the Baby Boomers.
2006 2013* 2018* 2023* 2028* 2033* 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
LOW … 45,400 45,882 46,166 46,182 45,822 45,031 44,049 42,927 41,751 40,596 39,513
MEDIUM … 45,400 46,480 47,459 48,293 48,853 49,041 49,034 48,901 48,746 48,645 48,660
HIGH … 45,400 47,084 48,822 50,557 52,168 53,511 54,701 55,826 57,010 58,322 59,829
SNZ Low 43,800 44,200 43,500 42,800 41,900 40,800 … … … … … …
SNZ medium 43,800 44,700 45,300 45,900 46,400 46,600 … … … … … …
SNZ High 43,800 45,300 47,100 49,100 50,800 52,600 … … … … … …
SNZ = Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)
*SNZ data are for 2011, 2016, 2021, 2016 and 2031
15 August 22, 2014
Table 2-2: Projected Population of the Timaru District 2013-2063 by Projection Variant and Broad Age Group
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
High Variant
0-14 8,290 8,553 8,966 9,276 9,400 9,434 9,475 9,641 9,937 10,261 10,514 13.4 11.9 26.8
15-24 5,200 5,113 4,838 4,982 5,343 5,560 5,645 5,675 5,649 5,703 5,880 2.7 10.1 13.1
25-54 16,460 15,890 15,607 15,322 15,468 16,014 16,548 16,877 17,079 17,457 17,924 -6.0 15.9 8.9
55-64 6,320 6,824 7,097 6,774 6,143 5,491 5,405 5,832 6,334 6,396 6,179 -2.8 0.6 -2.2
65-74 4,870 5,768 6,423 7,024 7,392 7,180 6,600 5,952 5,832 6,259 6,816 51.8 -7.8 40.0
75+ 4,260 4,936 5,892 7,180 8,422 9,832 11,028 11,849 12,179 12,246 12,516 97.7 48.6 193.8
Total 45,400 47,084 48,822 50,557 52,168 53,511 54,701 55,826 57,010 58,322 59,829 14.9 14.7 31.8
65+ (N) 9,130 10,704 12,315 14,204 15,814 17,012 17,628 17,801 18,012 18,505 19,332 73.2 22.2 111.7
65+ (%) 20.1 22.7 25.2 28.1 30.3 31.8 32.2 31.9 31.6 31.7 32.3 50.7 6.6 60.7
Medium Variant
0-14 8,290 8,403 8,541 8,484 8,256 8,019 7,839 7,787 7,808 7,799 7,712 -0.4 -6.6 -7.0
15-24 5,200 4,925 4,648 4,778 5,005 4,946 4,810 4,670 4,509 4,468 4,505 -3.8 -10.0 -13.4
25-54 16,460 15,721 15,139 14,586 14,482 14,758 14,900 14,756 14,570 14,506 14,456 -12.0 -0.2 -12.2
55-64 6,320 6,801 7,031 6,651 5,969 5,283 5,171 5,530 5,799 5,628 5,364 -5.6 -10.1 -15.1
65-74 4,870 5,724 6,329 6,887 7,199 6,922 6,290 5,615 5,476 5,834 6,151 47.8 -14.6 26.3
75+ 4,260 4,906 5,771 6,906 7,943 9,112 10,023 10,543 10,584 10,409 10,472 86.4 31.8 145.8
Total 45,400 46,480 47,459 48,293 48,853 49,041 49,034 48,901 48,746 48,645 48,660 7.6 -0.4 7.2
65+ (N) 9,130 10,630 12,100 13,793 15,142 16,034 16,313 16,158 16,060 16,244 16,623 65.8 9.8 82.1
65+ (%) 20.1 22.9 25.5 28.6 31.0 32.7 33.3 33.0 32.9 33.4 34.2 54.1 10.2 69.9
Low Variant
0-14 8,290 8,263 8,142 7,741 7,198 6,743 6,406 6,208 6,045 5,823 5,539 -13.2 -23.0 -33.2
15-24 5,200 4,738 4,480 4,587 4,691 4,380 4,058 3,789 3,547 3,458 3,398 -9.8 -27.6 -34.7
25-54 16,460 15,551 14,671 13,877 13,544 13,580 13,374 12,838 12,369 11,963 11,541 -17.7 -14.8 -29.9
55-64 6,320 6,776 6,961 6,520 5,781 5,061 4,920 5,205 5,242 4,884 4,618 -8.5 -20.1 -26.9
65-74 4,870 5,677 6,231 6,743 6,990 6,640 5,950 5,245 5,080 5,358 5,431 43.5 -22.3 11.5
75+ 4,260 4,877 5,680 6,714 7,617 8,628 9,339 9,642 9,469 9,109 8,987 78.8 18.0 111.0
Total 45,400 45,882 46,166 46,182 45,822 45,031 44,049 42,927 41,751 40,596 39,513 0.9 -13.8 -13.0
65+ (N) 9,130 10,554 11,911 13,457 14,607 15,268 15,289 14,887 14,548 14,467 14,418 60.0 -1.3 57.9
65+ (%) 20.1 23.0 25.8 29.1 31.9 33.9 34.7 34.7 34.8 35.6 36.5 58.5 14.5 81.4
(% Change)
16 August 22, 2014
Figure 2-2: Projected Percentage Aged 65+ Years 2013-2063 by Projection Variant, Timaru
District
20.1
31.9
36.5
34.2
30.3 32.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
perc
enta
ge
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
17 August 22, 2014
Figure 2-3: Projected Age-Sex Structure in 2033 by Projection Variant, Timaru District
5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
0- 4 5- 910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
percentage at each age
age
High (2033)Males Females
5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
0- 4 5- 910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
percentage at each age
age
Medium (2033)Males Females
5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0
0- 4 5- 910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485+
percentage at each age
age
Low (2033)Males Females
18 August 22, 2014
The projected structural ageing for Timaru District is in keeping with that for total New
Zealand, where the proportion aged 65+ years is projected to increase under the
medium variant from its current 14.3 per cent to 21.3 per cent in 2031 and 25.8 per cent
in 2061 (an overall increase of 80.2 per cent). By comparison the increase for Timaru
District under the medium variant to 2063 is just 69.9 per cent, and 60.7 and 81.4 per cent
respectively under the high and low variants.
These trends mean that virtually all future growth in the Timaru District will be at older
ages—as elsewhere. Between 2011 and 2031 all growth in 84 per cent (56) of New
Zealand’s 67 TAs is projected to be at 65+ years, offsetting decline at most other ages
(Jackson passim). Table 2.3 shows that between 2013 and 2033, all Timaru’s growth
under the medium variant (+3,453) will be similarly accounted for at 65+ years, offsetting
decline at all younger ages (shaded cells). This is similarly the case under the low variant,
where overall growth of 422 is indicated. Only under the high variant is there likely to be
growth at 0-24 years, with that at 65+ years still contributing the somewhat greater
proportion. In each case these trends continue between 2033 and 2063, but growth at
older ages generally levels off after the baby boomer cohorts pass through each age
group (Figure 2.4).
Table 2-3: Projected Contribution to Change 2013-2033 and 2033-2063 by Broad Age Group
and Projection Variant, Timaru District
2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
0-14 1,110 1,114 2,224 -34 -543 -578 -1,092 -1,659 -2,751
15-24 143 537 680 -195 -500 -695 -509 -1,293 -1,802
25-54 -992 2,456 1,464 -1,978 -26 -2,004 -2,916 -2,004 -4,919
55-64 -177 36 -141 -351 -605 -956 -539 -1,163 -1,702
65-74 2,522 -576 1,946 2,329 -1,048 1,281 2,120 -1,559 561
75+ 4,162 4,094 8,256 3,683 2,529 6,212 3,357 1,370 4,727
Total 6,768 7,661 14,429 3,453 -192 3,260 422 -6,309 -5,887
65+ 6,684 3,518 10,202 6,012 1,481 7,493 5,477 -190 5,288
0-14 16.4 14.5 15.4 -1.0 -282.5 -17.7 -258.8 -26.3 -46.7
15-24 2.1 7.0 4.7 -5.7 -260.1 -21.3 -120.7 -20.5 -30.6
25-54 -14.7 32.1 10.1 -57.3 -13.3 -61.5 -690.9 -31.8 -83.6
55-64 -2.6 0.5 -1.0 -10.2 -314.5 -29.3 -127.6 -18.4 -28.9
65-74 37.3 -7.5 13.5 67.5 -545.1 39.3 502.4 -24.7 9.5
75+ 61.5 53.4 57.2 106.7 1315.6 190.5 795.6 21.7 80.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -100.0 100.0 100.0 -100.0 -100.0
65+ 98.8 45.9 70.7 174.1 770.5 229.8 1297.9 -3.0 89.8
Notes: negative and positive values sum to 100
Numerical Contribution to Change
Percentage Contribution to Change
High Medium Low
19 August 22, 2014
Figure 2-4: Projected Numbers by Broad Age Group and Projection Variant, 2013-2063,
Timaru District
Note different scales on Y-axis
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er a
t ea
ch a
geHigh
0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 65-74 75+
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er a
t ea
ch a
ge
Medium
0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 65-74 75+
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er a
t ea
ch a
ge
Low
0-14 15-24 25-54 55-64 65-74 75+
20 August 22, 2014
The projected trend to slower growth, and, under the medium and low variants, to
negative growth within the projection period are explained by Figure 2.5, which shows
the Timaru population shifting from natural increase (more births than deaths) to natural
decline respectively from 2033, 2023, and 2018 under the high, medium and low variants
(Table 2.5 and Appendix A); of note, the shift to natural decline was also projected by
Statistics New Zealand (2012) to occur under the medium variant around 2021. This
follows a shift to more elderly than children (65+ and 0-14 years respectively) which is
already the case in the Timaru District (Table 2.4) and in one-fifth of New Zealand’s TA’s.
Under the medium variant, the Timaru District is projected to have 1.83 ‘elderly per
children’ by 2033 (up from 1.10 in 2013), 1.68 under the high variant and 2.03 under the
low variant.
Table 2-4: Projected Numbers 0-14 and 65+ Years 2013-2063 by Projection Variant, Timaru
District
Together these trends illustrate the force of structural ageing which leads to slowing and
declining growth, even under high migration, fertility and life expectancy scenarios. As
indicated throughout the text these trends are not being experienced by Timaru alone.
The shift to zero natural increase and/or natural decline is projected for 32 (47.8 per
cent) of New Zealand’s TA’s by 2031.
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
High
0-14 8,290 8,553 8,966 9,276 9,400 9,434 9,475 9,641 9,937 10,261 10,514
65+ 9,130 10,704 12,315 14,204 15,814 17,012 17,628 17,801 18,012 18,505 19,332
Ratio* 1.10 1.25 1.37 1.53 1.68 1.80 1.86 1.85 1.81 1.80 1.84
Medium
0-14 8,290 8,403 8,541 8,484 8,256 8,019 7,839 7,787 7,808 7,799 7,712
65+ 9,130 10,630 12,100 13,793 15,142 16,034 16,313 16,158 16,060 16,244 16,623
Ratio* 1.10 1.27 1.42 1.63 1.83 2.00 2.08 2.08 2.06 2.08 2.16
Low
0-14 8,290 8,263 8,142 7,741 7,198 6,743 6,406 6,208 6,045 5,823 5,539
65+ 9,130 10,554 11,911 13,457 14,607 15,268 15,289 14,887 14,548 14,467 14,418
Ratio* 1.10 1.28 1.46 1.74 2.03 2.26 2.39 2.40 2.41 2.48 2.60
Notes: * Numbers aged 65+ years to numbers aged 0-14 years
21 August 22, 2014
Figure 2-5: Projected Components of Change 2013-2063 by Projection Variant, Timaru District
Note different scales on Y-axis
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- 2043- 2048- 2053- 2058-
Nu
mb
er (
5 Y
ears
)
High Variant (5-Year Total)
Natural Increase Net Migration net change
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- 2043- 2048- 2053- 2058-
Nu
mb
er (
5 Y
ears
)
Medium Variant (5-Year Total)
Natural Increase Net Migration net change
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
2013- 2018- 2023- 2028- 2033- 2038- 2043- 2048- 2053- 2058-
Nu
mb
er (
5 Y
ears
)
Low Variant (5-Year Total)
Natural Increase Net Migration net change
22 August 22, 2014
Table 2-5: Projected Components of Change 2013-2063 by Projection Variant, Timaru District
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Net
Change
High Variant
2013-18 523 1,161 1,684
2018-23 476 1,262 1,738
2023-28 322 1,413 1,735
2028-33 76 1,535 1,611
2033-38 -205 1,548 1,343
2038-43 -369 1,560 1,191
2043-48 -490 1,615 1,124
2048-53 -513 1,697 1,184
2053-58 -493 1,805 1,311
2058-63 -406 1,913 1,507
Medium Variant
2013-18 364 716 1,080
2018-23 142 837 979
2023-28 -135 968 833
2028-33 -485 1045 560
2033-38 -820 1009 189
2038-43 -1021 1015 -7
2043-48 -1200 1066 -133
2048-53 -1280 1125 -155
2053-58 -1302 1200 -102
2058-63 -1234 1250 16
Low Variant
2013-18 212 270 482
2018-23 -157 441 284
2023-28 -543 559 16
2028-33 -967 607 -360
2033-38 -1330 539 -791
2038-43 -1554 571 -983
2043-48 -1769 648 -1,121
2048-53 -1885 709 -1,176
2053-58 -1926 771 -1,155
2058-63 -1865 783 -1,082
23 August 22, 2014
3. Results – Household/Dwelling Projections
Household/dwelling projections are developed by applying the propensity of living in
each household type by age (and sex for single person and single parent households),
to the above population projections. Baseline data (average household size) and the
related methodology is given at Appendix D1.
The results follow a similar trajectory to the population projections (Figure 3.1, see also
Table 3.1 and Appendix D2). Under the medium variant, total household/dwelling
numbers increase from 18,660 in 2013 to 21,105 in 2033 (+13.1 per cent), peaking in 2043
at 21,451 households, then declining slightly to 21,355 by 2063 (+14.4 per cent over 2013).
Under the high variant, numbers increase to 22,363 in 2033 and 25,805 in 2963 (+19.8 and
38.3 per cent over 2013 respectively), while under the low variant numbers peak in 2033
at 19,969 (+7.0 per cent) and decline to 17,684 in 2063 (-5.2 per cent over 2013).
Figure 3-1: Projected Number of Households by Projection Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District
The trends are marked by important compositional changes, outlined below. Most
notably, while family- and one-person households account for both the majority of
household types (69 and 28 per cent respectively in 2013) and the majority of change,
the increase in family households pertains primarily to couples-without children, a
complex category that will drive demand for certain types of dwellings.
25,805
21,105
21,355 18,660
17,684
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
High Medium Low
24 August 22, 2014
Table 3-1: Projected Number of Households by Family and Household Type and Projection
Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District
Figure 3.2 provides a comparison of projected households by household type under
each projection variant. Family households (couple without family, one-parent and two-
parent) increase under both the high and medium variants, but under the medium
variant numbers peak in 2033 at 13,642 then decline to just above their starting point by
2063. Reflecting structural ageing, more older people living alone sees one-person
households increase under all variants, although peaking in 2048 under the low variant.
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Couple without
children families6,599 7,151 7,590 7,861 8,015 8,104 8,161 8,210 8,287 8,417 8,629
Two parent families 4,665 4,638 4,676 4,766 4,856 4,931 5,001 5,088 5,206 5,343 5,475
One parent families 1,797 1,802 1,825 1,870 1,920 1,960 1,994 2,029 2,071 2,122 2,178
Total Families 13,062 13,592 14,090 14,496 14,791 14,995 15,155 15,327 15,563 15,882 16,282
Family Households 12,826 13,346 13,836 14,235 14,524 14,724 14,882 15,050 15,282 15,595 15,988
One Person
Households5,239 5,687 6,184 6,692 7,211 7,683 8,112 8,441 8,683 8,875 9,115
Other multi-person
household595 613 613 613 628 645 660 672 681 689 703
Total Households 18,660 19,647 20,632 21,539 22,363 23,051 23,653 24,163 24,646 25,160 25,805
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Couple without
children families6,599 7,085 7,442 7,626 7,686 7,660 7,576 7,466 7,376 7,336 7,372
Two parent families 4,665 4,568 4,511 4,484 4,443 4,390 4,342 4,309 4,293 4,277 4,245
One parent families 1,797 1,773 1,762 1,765 1,763 1,748 1,731 1,717 1,707 1,703 1,697
Total Families 13,062 13,426 13,715 13,875 13,892 13,798 13,648 13,492 13,376 13,317 13,313
Family Households 12,826 13,184 13,467 13,625 13,642 13,549 13,402 13,248 13,134 13,076 13,073
One Person
Households5,239 5,639 6,060 6,473 6,873 7,201 7,463 7,610 7,663 7,667 7,721
Other multi-person
household595 599 589 583 590 590 586 580 570 564 562
Total Households 18,660 19,422 20,117 20,680 21,105 21,339 21,451 21,438 21,367 21,307 21,355
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Couple without
children families6,599 7,014 7,295 7,400 7,379 7,252 7,045 6,801 6,573 6,397 6,287
Two parent families 4,665 4,500 4,353 4,217 4,056 3,893 3,750 3,626 3,513 3,392 3,250
One parent families 1,797 1,745 1,703 1,667 1,617 1,555 1,497 1,446 1,401 1,357 1,310
Total Families 13,062 13,259 13,351 13,283 13,053 12,700 12,292 11,873 11,487 11,146 10,847
Family Households 12,826 13,019 13,110 13,044 12,817 12,470 12,070 11,659 11,279 10,945 10,651
One Person
Households5,239 5,595 5,954 6,291 6,598 6,812 6,942 6,943 6,843 6,693 6,587
Other multi-person
household595 584 567 555 554 540 519 498 475 458 445
Total Households 18,660 19,199 19,631 19,890 19,969 19,822 19,531 19,100 18,597 18,096 17,684
Timaru District - Medium Series Projections
Timaru District - Low Series Projections
Timaru District - High Series Projections
25 August 22, 2014
Figure 3-2: Projected Number of Households by Household Type and Projection Variant, 2013-
2063, Timaru District
Note different scales on Y-Axis
5,239
6,873 7,721
12,826 13,642
13,073
595 562 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
Medium Variant
Family HouseholdsOne Person HouseholdsOther multi-person household
12,826 14,524 15,988
5,239 7,211
9,115
595 703 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
High Variant
Family HouseholdsOne Person HouseholdsOther multi-person household
12,826 12,817
10,651
5,239
6,598 6,587
595 445 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
Low Variant
Family HouseholdsOne Person HouseholdsOther multi-person household
26 August 22, 2014
Figure 3.3 provides a further breakdown of changes within the broader family household
category. As noted above this information is of critical importance as it shows that the
majority of the overall increase in family households is in fact in ‘couple-without children’
families (except under the low variant where they decline overall). These households
contain three different sets of couples: those who do not yet have children, those who
did not or will not have children, and those whose children have left home. The types of
dwellings that such people seek—and their location—is likely to differ from those sought
by one- and two-parent families with children, whose numbers continue to grow across
the projection period only under the high variant assumptions. Under both the medium
and variant assumptions, both of these family types decline. The future dwelling demand
for the Timaru District will thus (as elsewhere) be increasingly driven by non-family
households, predominantly comprised of one-person and couples without children.
Tables 3.2 and 3.3 summarise these points. Table 3.2 shows family households declining
from 69 per cent of all household types in 2013 to 62, 61 and 60 per cent respectively
under the high, medium and low variant assumptions, and one-person households
increasing from 28 per cent in 2013 to 35, 36 and 37 per cent respectively under the high,
medium and low variants.
Within the family household category, Table 3.3 shows couple-without-children families
increasing from 51 per cent of all family households in 2013 to 53, 55 and 58 per cent
respectively under the high, medium and low variants; two-parent families declining
from 36 per cent in 3013 to 34, 32 and 30 per cent respectively under the high, medium
and low variants; and one-parent families declining from 14 per cent in 2013 to 13, 13
and 12 per cent respectively under the high, medium and low variants.
Finally, Figure 3.4 compares projected households and projected population. Under the
high variant, the gap between household and population numbers increases, while
under the low variant it decreases. This is because in the former case there are more
family households, average household size is slightly higher and declines at a slower rate
over the period, while in the latter case there are more one-person households, average
household size is lower, and it declines at a greater rate.
27 August 22, 2014
Figure 3-3: Projected Number of Family Households by Family Household Type and Projection
Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District
Note different scales on Y-Axis
6,599
8,015 8,629
4,665 4,856 5,475
1,797 1,920 2,178
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
201
3
201
8
202
3
202
8
203
3
203
8
204
3
204
8
205
3
205
8
206
3
Nu
mb
er
High Variant
Couple without children familiesTwo parent familiesOne parent families
6,599 7,686 7,372
4,665 4,443 4,245
1,797 1,763 1,697
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
Medium Variant
Couple without children familiesTwo parent familiesOne parent families
6,599 7,379
6,287
4,665 4,056
3,250
1,797 1,617 1,310
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
Nu
mb
er
Low Variant
Couple without children familiesTwo parent familiesOne parent families
28 August 22, 2014
Table 3-2: Projected Distribution (%) of Households by Family/Household Type and Projection
Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District
Table 3-3: Projected Distribution (%) of Family Households by Family Type and Projection
Variant, 2013-2063, Timaru District
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
High Variant
Family Households 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 62 62 62
One Person
Households28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35
Other multi-person
household3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total Households 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Medium Variant
Family Households 69 68 67 66 65 63 62 62 61 61 61
One Person
Households28 29 30 31 33 34 35 35 36 36 36
Other multi-person
household3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total Households 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Low Variant
Family Households 69 68 67 66 64 63 62 61 61 60 60
One Person
Households28 29 30 32 33 34 36 36 37 37 37
Other multi-person
household3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total Households 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
High VariantCouple without
children families51 53 54 54 54 54 54 54 53 53 53
Two parent families 36 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 34
One parent families 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Total Families 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Medium VariantCouple without
children families51 53 54 55 55 56 56 55 55 55 55
Two parent families 36 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32
One parent families 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Total Families 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Low VariantCouple without
children families51 53 55 56 57 57 57 57 57 57 58
Two parent families 36 34 33 32 31 31 31 31 31 30 30
One parent families 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Total Families 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
29 August 22, 2014
Figure 3-4: Projected Population and Projected Households by Projection Variant, 2013-2063,
Timaru District
Note different scales on Y-Axis
45,400 45,822
39,513
18,660 19,969 17,684
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
201
3
201
8
202
3
202
8
203
3
203
8
204
3
204
8
205
3
205
8
206
3
Nu
mb
er
Low Variant
Population (Low)
Households (Low)
45,400
48,853 48,660
18,660 21,105 21,355
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
201
3
201
8
202
3
202
8
203
3
203
8
204
3
204
8
205
3
205
8
206
3
Nu
mb
er
Medium Variant
Population (Medium)
Households (Medium)
45,400
52,168
59,829
18,660
22,363
25,805
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
201
3
201
8
202
3
202
8
203
3
203
8
204
3
204
8
205
3
205
8
206
3
Nu
mb
er
High Variant
Population (High)
Households (High)
30 August 22, 2014
Appendices
Appendix A: Projected Population and Major Projection Assumptions by Projection Variant,
Timaru District
Timaru District Annual Average TFR Male Female Annual Annual Annual Annual
Growth Annual e0 e0 Net Births Deaths Natural
Year Population Rate % Increase Migration Increase
(includes deaths)
High 2013- 45,400 0.73 337 2.22 80.2 83.5 232 572 468 105 12.4 10.1
High 2018- 47,084 0.73 348 2.20 81.3 84.5 252 586 491 95 12.2 10.2
High 2023- 48,822 0.70 347 2.19 82.3 85.4 283 594 530 64 12.0 10.7
High 2028- 50,557 0.63 322 2.19 83.3 86.4 307 591 576 15 11.5 11.2
High 2033- 52,168 0.51 269 2.19 84.3 87.3 310 590 631 -41 11.2 11.9
High 2038- 53,511 0.44 238 2.19 85.3 88.3 312 601 675 -74 11.1 12.5
High 2043- 54,701 0.41 225 2.19 86.3 89.1 323 625 723 -98 11.3 13.1
High 2048- 55,826 0.42 237 2.19 87.3 90.0 339 648 751 -103 11.5 13.3
High 2053- 57,010 0.46 262 2.19 88.2 90.7 361 662 761 -99 11.5 13.2
High 2058- 58,322 0.51 301 2.19 89.1 91.5 383 670 751 -81 11.3 12.7
High 2063 59,829 90.0 92.1
Medium 2013- 45,400 0.47 216 2.20 79.9 83.2 143 549 476 73 11.9 10.4
Medium 2018- 46,480 0.42 196 2.08 80.8 84.0 167 534 506 28 11.4 10.8
Medium 2023- 47,459 0.35 167 2.05 81.7 84.8 194 522 549 -27 10.9 11.5
Medium 2028- 48,293 0.23 112 2.02 82.5 85.6 209 501 598 -97 10.3 12.3
Medium 2033- 48,853 0.08 38 1.99 83.3 86.3 202 488 652 -164 10.0 13.3
Medium 2038- 49,041 0.00 -1 1.99 84.1 87.0 203 488 693 -204 10.0 14.1
Medium 2043- 49,034 -0.05 -27 1.99 84.9 87.7 213 494 733 -240 10.1 15.0
Medium 2048- 48,901 -0.06 -31 1.99 85.7 88.4 225 494 750 -256 10.1 15.4
Medium 2053- 48,746 -0.04 -20 1.99 86.4 89.1 240 486 746 -260 10.0 15.3
Medium 2058- 48,645 0.01 3 1.99 87.2 89.7 250 475 722 -247 9.8 14.8
Medium 2063 48,660 87.9 90.3
Low 2013- 45,400 0.21 96 2.18 79.4 83.1 54 527 485 42 11.5 10.6
Low 2018- 45,882 0.12 57 1.97 80.1 83.7 88 487 518 -31 10.6 11.3
Low 2023- 46,166 0.01 3 1.91 80.8 84.3 112 455 564 -109 9.9 12.2
Low 2028- 46,182 -0.16 -72 1.84 81.4 84.9 121 420 614 -193 9.1 13.3
Low 2033- 45,822 -0.35 -158 1.79 82.1 85.4 108 400 666 -266 8.8 14.7
Low 2038- 45,031 -0.44 -197 1.79 82.6 85.9 114 393 704 -311 8.8 15.8
Low 2043- 44,049 -0.51 -224 1.79 83.2 86.4 130 385 739 -354 8.9 17.0
Low 2048- 42,927 -0.55 -235 1.79 83.7 86.9 142 370 747 -377 8.7 17.6
Low 2053- 41,751 -0.56 -231 1.79 84.2 87.4 154 349 734 -385 8.5 17.8
Low 2058- 40,596 -0.54 -216 1.79 84.6 87.9 157 330 703 -373 8.2 17.5
Low 2063 39,513 85.1 88.3
TFR = total fertility rate
e0 = life expectancy at birth (Values are slightly higher than Stats NZ as based on 2013 not 2011 rates)
Crude
Birth
Rate
Crude
Death
Rate
31 August 22, 2014
Appendix B1: Arrivals From and Leavers To Christchurch 2001-2006 and 2006-2013
Figure 1.1 in Section 1 showed an improving migration scenario for Timaru, primarily
involving a reducing net loss at 20-24 years and gains at 30-79 years, albeit the latter
reducing at 30-64 years over the previous (2001-2006) period. The gains at 30-49 years
were also accompanied by gains at 0-14 years.
The extent to which the trends may reflect recent gains related to the Christchurch
earthquakes is indicated in Figure B1 and Table B1. Between 2008 and 2013 Timaru made
a net gain of 87 persons from Christchurch, which contrasted with a net loss to
Christchurch of 795 people between 2001 and 2006. Between 2008 and 2013 the net
gain from Christchurch accounted for 4.7 per cent of Timaru District’s overall net internal
migration gain of 1,851 persons. By contrast, between 2001 and 2006 the net loss to
Christchurch reduced an overall net internal migration gain for Timaru of 843 persons by
94.3 per cent. Between 2008 and 2013, Arrivals from Christchurch also accounted for a
larger proportion of all internal Arrivals than in the period 2001-2006, while Leavers to
Christchurch accounted for a smaller proportion of all Leavers. In sum, these data imply
that the Christchurch earthquakes resulted in a small direct net gain for Timaru, but that
factors other than the earthquakes caused the District’s generally improving migration.
However the Christchurch earthquakes may also have had a generalised indirect effect
in reducing the desire to leave Timaru for Christchurch.
Appendix Figure B1: Percentage of All Internal Arrivals From/Leavers To Christchurch and Net
Impact on Internal Migration, 2001-2006 and 2008-2013
Source: Jackson and Pawar 2014
14.8
30.7
-94.3
19.425.1
4.7
-120.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
Arrivals Leavers Net
per
cen
tage
2001-2006
2008-2013
32 August 22, 2014
Appendix Table B1: Arrivals From/Leavers to Christchurch 2001-2006 and 2008-2013
Arrivals Leavers Net
0-4* … … …
5-9 105 42 63
10-14 78 42 36
15-19 54 186 -132
20-24 99 402 -303
25-29 156 81 75
30-34 108 57 51
35-39 111 66 45
40-44 93 66 27
45-49 81 48 33
50-54 90 54 36
55-59 63 36 27
60-64 69 39 30
65+ 180 69 111
Total 1,284 1,197 87
From/To Christchurch (%) 19.4 25.1 4.7
Timaru District (Summary 2008-2013)
Arrivals Leavers Net
Total Internal Migrants 6,615 4,764 1,851
Not Born 5 Years Ago 2,538 … …
Overseas 1,467 … …
NEI/Not Stated 1,743 … …
STAYERS … … 31,446
Timaru- five next largest groups of movers (2008-2013)
Arrivals Leavers Net
Ashburton 396 372 24
Waimate 357 318 39
Auckland 309 225 84
Dunedin 300 531 -231
Mackenzie 207 183 24
ARRIVALS = lived elsewhere in 2008;
LEAVERS lived in Timaru District in 2008
2001-2006
From/To Christchurch (N) 981 1776 -795
Total Internal Migrants (N) 6627 5784 843
From/To Christchurch (%) 14.8 30.7 -94.3
ARRIVALS = lived elsewhere in 2001;
LEAVERS lived in Timaru District in 2001
Notes: *children aged 0-4 in 2013 were not born in 2008 and thus there are no
data. Note also that numbers do not always sum to the total because of
underlying rounding of small cell sizes
33 August 22, 2014
Appendix C1: Projected Population of the Timaru District by Age and Sex, LOW Variant
Males High Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 1,430 1,459 1,493 1,514 1,507 1,503 1,532 1,592 1,652 1,689 1,709
5- 9 1,400 1,520 1,556 1,593 1,616 1,611 1,607 1,635 1,697 1,761 1,802
10-14 1,470 1,474 1,594 1,636 1,676 1,701 1,697 1,693 1,720 1,784 1,851
15-19 1,540 1,377 1,390 1,509 1,545 1,582 1,605 1,600 1,596 1,624 1,686
20-24 1,170 1,360 1,169 1,212 1,324 1,343 1,378 1,396 1,388 1,385 1,414
25-29 1,030 1,131 1,317 1,120 1,170 1,280 1,296 1,330 1,347 1,339 1,337
30-34 1,020 1,096 1,202 1,395 1,213 1,250 1,363 1,386 1,422 1,442 1,435
35-39 1,150 1,084 1,156 1,266 1,466 1,296 1,323 1,438 1,468 1,506 1,528
40-44 1,410 1,189 1,117 1,187 1,299 1,502 1,340 1,362 1,477 1,512 1,551
45-49 1,540 1,437 1,217 1,140 1,209 1,323 1,528 1,373 1,391 1,507 1,545
50-54 1,720 1,607 1,502 1,280 1,194 1,259 1,376 1,586 1,445 1,456 1,573
55-59 1,580 1,741 1,640 1,535 1,316 1,225 1,287 1,407 1,621 1,489 1,497
60-64 1,550 1,602 1,766 1,680 1,578 1,362 1,266 1,324 1,447 1,666 1,548
65-69 1,300 1,539 1,610 1,779 1,712 1,616 1,407 1,306 1,362 1,488 1,713
70-74 1,060 1,249 1,493 1,583 1,759 1,716 1,632 1,434 1,333 1,388 1,518
75-79 740 953 1,145 1,388 1,499 1,683 1,667 1,603 1,425 1,331 1,386
80-84 610 597 784 967 1,200 1,327 1,516 1,532 1,496 1,351 1,273
85+ 410 532 610 777 1,001 1,301 1,598 1,943 2,224 2,436 2,535
Total 22,130 22,947 23,760 24,563 25,284 25,880 26,416 26,939 27,512 28,154 28,901
Females High Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 1,250 1,390 1,424 1,444 1,437 1,434 1,462 1,520 1,578 1,613 1,633
5- 9 1,290 1,339 1,483 1,527 1,550 1,545 1,542 1,569 1,629 1,692 1,731
10-14 1,450 1,371 1,415 1,562 1,613 1,639 1,636 1,633 1,660 1,722 1,788
15-19 1,370 1,327 1,251 1,303 1,445 1,484 1,507 1,502 1,499 1,526 1,586
20-24 1,120 1,050 1,027 958 1,029 1,151 1,156 1,177 1,166 1,167 1,194
25-29 1,090 1,220 1,162 1,134 1,063 1,128 1,255 1,272 1,295 1,287 1,287
30-34 1,080 1,195 1,337 1,293 1,261 1,187 1,244 1,378 1,408 1,434 1,429
35-39 1,280 1,170 1,277 1,426 1,394 1,359 1,283 1,335 1,473 1,513 1,543
40-44 1,590 1,377 1,254 1,353 1,509 1,487 1,452 1,374 1,422 1,562 1,612
45-49 1,730 1,625 1,412 1,284 1,381 1,539 1,522 1,488 1,410 1,456 1,598
50-54 1,820 1,758 1,655 1,442 1,311 1,405 1,566 1,555 1,521 1,443 1,488
55-59 1,590 1,849 1,800 1,698 1,487 1,352 1,441 1,606 1,602 1,569 1,492
60-64 1,600 1,632 1,892 1,860 1,763 1,552 1,411 1,495 1,665 1,671 1,641
65-69 1,360 1,639 1,696 1,958 1,952 1,862 1,654 1,505 1,580 1,756 1,777
70-74 1,150 1,342 1,625 1,704 1,969 1,986 1,907 1,708 1,557 1,628 1,808
75-79 930 1,079 1,273 1,556 1,655 1,922 1,962 1,901 1,717 1,573 1,643
80-84 740 787 931 1,118 1,388 1,499 1,762 1,821 1,783 1,626 1,501
85+ 830 987 1,149 1,374 1,679 2,100 2,523 3,049 3,534 3,929 4,178
Total 23,270 24,137 25,062 25,994 26,884 27,631 28,286 28,887 29,499 30,168 30,928
Total High Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 2,680 2,849 2,917 2,958 2,945 2,938 2,993 3,112 3,230 3,302 3,341
5- 9 2,690 2,859 3,039 3,120 3,166 3,156 3,149 3,204 3,326 3,453 3,533
10-14 2,920 2,845 3,009 3,198 3,289 3,340 3,333 3,326 3,380 3,506 3,639
15-19 2,910 2,704 2,642 2,812 2,990 3,066 3,112 3,102 3,095 3,151 3,272
20-24 2,290 2,409 2,196 2,169 2,353 2,494 2,533 2,573 2,554 2,552 2,608
25-29 2,120 2,351 2,479 2,254 2,232 2,408 2,551 2,602 2,642 2,626 2,623
30-34 2,100 2,292 2,539 2,688 2,474 2,437 2,607 2,764 2,830 2,876 2,864
35-39 2,430 2,253 2,433 2,692 2,859 2,655 2,606 2,773 2,941 3,019 3,071
40-44 3,000 2,566 2,371 2,540 2,808 2,989 2,792 2,736 2,899 3,074 3,163
45-49 3,270 3,063 2,629 2,425 2,589 2,862 3,050 2,861 2,801 2,963 3,143
50-54 3,540 3,366 3,157 2,722 2,506 2,664 2,942 3,141 2,965 2,900 3,061
55-59 3,170 3,590 3,439 3,234 2,802 2,576 2,728 3,012 3,222 3,059 2,990
60-64 3,150 3,234 3,658 3,540 3,341 2,914 2,677 2,820 3,112 3,337 3,189
65-69 2,660 3,178 3,306 3,737 3,664 3,478 3,061 2,810 2,942 3,244 3,490
70-74 2,210 2,590 3,118 3,287 3,728 3,701 3,539 3,142 2,890 3,016 3,326
75-79 1,670 2,032 2,418 2,944 3,154 3,605 3,629 3,504 3,142 2,903 3,029
80-84 1,350 1,384 1,715 2,085 2,588 2,826 3,278 3,354 3,279 2,977 2,775
85+ 1,240 1,519 1,759 2,151 2,680 3,402 4,121 4,992 5,758 6,366 6,712
Total 45,400 47,084 48,822 50,557 52,168 53,511 54,701 55,826 57,010 58,322 59,829
34 August 22, 2014
Appendix C2: Projected Population of the Timaru District by Age and Sex, MEDIUM Variant
Males Medium Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 1,430 1,398 1,363 1,332 1,280 1,247 1,247 1,261 1,262 1,242 1,215
5- 9 1,400 1,510 1,485 1,448 1,416 1,362 1,326 1,324 1,338 1,340 1,320
10-14 1,470 1,465 1,575 1,555 1,517 1,484 1,427 1,389 1,386 1,399 1,402
15-19 1,540 1,362 1,369 1,479 1,452 1,416 1,385 1,332 1,297 1,296 1,310
20-24 1,170 1,274 1,074 1,126 1,225 1,176 1,152 1,126 1,079 1,055 1,060
25-29 1,030 1,116 1,216 1,013 1,075 1,170 1,118 1,096 1,072 1,026 1,005
30-34 1,020 1,080 1,169 1,274 1,077 1,129 1,227 1,180 1,156 1,131 1,084
35-39 1,150 1,077 1,133 1,226 1,336 1,145 1,188 1,288 1,247 1,221 1,195
40-44 1,410 1,177 1,100 1,154 1,249 1,361 1,175 1,213 1,315 1,276 1,250
45-49 1,540 1,420 1,189 1,110 1,164 1,259 1,373 1,190 1,226 1,329 1,293
50-54 1,720 1,582 1,461 1,230 1,144 1,196 1,294 1,412 1,235 1,265 1,369
55-59 1,580 1,732 1,605 1,485 1,257 1,167 1,217 1,317 1,439 1,269 1,295
60-64 1,550 1,594 1,748 1,636 1,519 1,294 1,200 1,247 1,350 1,476 1,316
65-69 1,300 1,531 1,591 1,749 1,656 1,545 1,327 1,229 1,275 1,381 1,513
70-74 1,060 1,239 1,470 1,547 1,709 1,638 1,539 1,335 1,238 1,283 1,393
75-79 740 946 1,122 1,346 1,438 1,601 1,559 1,479 1,298 1,210 1,257
80-84 610 594 766 925 1,128 1,227 1,386 1,374 1,323 1,179 1,111
85+ 410 529 593 728 898 1,118 1,317 1,541 1,692 1,779 1,774
Total 22,130 22,628 23,031 23,365 23,538 23,537 23,456 23,335 23,227 23,158 23,160
Females Medium Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 1,250 1,333 1,299 1,270 1,219 1,188 1,188 1,201 1,202 1,183 1,157
5- 9 1,290 1,331 1,417 1,388 1,358 1,305 1,271 1,269 1,282 1,284 1,265
10-14 1,450 1,365 1,402 1,490 1,465 1,434 1,380 1,342 1,339 1,352 1,354
15-19 1,370 1,314 1,234 1,279 1,363 1,330 1,302 1,251 1,219 1,218 1,231
20-24 1,120 976 970 893 965 1,023 971 961 914 898 903
25-29 1,090 1,197 1,061 1,046 968 1,034 1,097 1,050 1,036 988 969
30-34 1,080 1,186 1,302 1,177 1,151 1,071 1,130 1,199 1,157 1,141 1,091
35-39 1,280 1,160 1,258 1,381 1,264 1,231 1,149 1,203 1,275 1,239 1,220
40-44 1,590 1,358 1,226 1,318 1,445 1,337 1,298 1,214 1,264 1,339 1,307
45-49 1,730 1,616 1,384 1,249 1,338 1,468 1,363 1,322 1,239 1,287 1,363
50-54 1,820 1,752 1,640 1,409 1,271 1,357 1,489 1,389 1,347 1,264 1,311
55-59 1,590 1,848 1,793 1,683 1,453 1,310 1,392 1,527 1,433 1,389 1,306
60-64 1,600 1,628 1,885 1,848 1,741 1,512 1,363 1,439 1,578 1,493 1,447
65-69 1,360 1,624 1,672 1,931 1,916 1,816 1,590 1,434 1,501 1,645 1,573
70-74 1,150 1,330 1,595 1,660 1,919 1,923 1,834 1,618 1,462 1,526 1,673
75-79 930 1,072 1,251 1,511 1,593 1,848 1,873 1,801 1,603 1,455 1,517
80-84 740 781 913 1,079 1,320 1,410 1,654 1,696 1,648 1,481 1,355
85+ 830 983 1,126 1,317 1,566 1,907 2,235 2,651 3,021 3,306 3,458
Total 23,270 23,852 24,428 24,928 25,314 25,504 25,578 25,567 25,519 25,487 25,500
Total Medium Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 2,680 2,731 2,661 2,602 2,499 2,435 2,435 2,462 2,464 2,425 2,372
5- 9 2,690 2,842 2,903 2,837 2,774 2,667 2,597 2,593 2,620 2,623 2,585
10-14 2,920 2,830 2,977 3,045 2,983 2,917 2,807 2,732 2,725 2,751 2,756
15-19 2,910 2,676 2,604 2,759 2,815 2,747 2,687 2,583 2,516 2,515 2,541
20-24 2,290 2,250 2,044 2,020 2,190 2,200 2,123 2,088 1,993 1,953 1,963
25-29 2,120 2,313 2,277 2,058 2,043 2,205 2,215 2,146 2,109 2,014 1,974
30-34 2,100 2,266 2,472 2,451 2,228 2,200 2,357 2,379 2,314 2,272 2,175
35-39 2,430 2,237 2,391 2,607 2,600 2,376 2,336 2,491 2,522 2,460 2,415
40-44 3,000 2,535 2,326 2,472 2,694 2,698 2,473 2,427 2,579 2,615 2,557
45-49 3,270 3,036 2,573 2,359 2,502 2,727 2,736 2,513 2,465 2,616 2,656
50-54 3,540 3,334 3,101 2,639 2,415 2,553 2,783 2,800 2,583 2,529 2,680
55-59 3,170 3,580 3,398 3,168 2,709 2,477 2,609 2,844 2,872 2,658 2,601
60-64 3,150 3,221 3,633 3,484 3,259 2,806 2,562 2,686 2,928 2,969 2,763
65-69 2,660 3,155 3,264 3,680 3,572 3,360 2,917 2,663 2,776 3,026 3,086
70-74 2,210 2,569 3,065 3,207 3,627 3,562 3,373 2,952 2,700 2,809 3,066
75-79 1,670 2,018 2,373 2,857 3,030 3,450 3,432 3,280 2,900 2,664 2,774
80-84 1,350 1,375 1,679 2,004 2,448 2,637 3,040 3,070 2,971 2,660 2,466
85+ 1,240 1,512 1,719 2,044 2,464 3,026 3,551 4,193 4,713 5,085 5,232
Total 45,400 46,480 47,459 48,293 48,853 49,041 49,034 48,901 48,746 48,645 48,660
35 August 22, 2014
Appendix C3: Projected Population of the Timaru District by Age and Sex, LOW Variant
Males Low Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 1,430 1,343 1,240 1,161 1,072 1,021 1,002 983 944 892 841
5- 9 1,400 1,501 1,420 1,313 1,228 1,135 1,080 1,057 1,037 998 943
10-14 1,470 1,456 1,557 1,479 1,369 1,280 1,184 1,125 1,100 1,079 1,039
15-19 1,540 1,347 1,348 1,449 1,364 1,261 1,181 1,091 1,039 1,018 999
20-24 1,170 1,188 991 1,051 1,134 1,025 955 895 823 793 781
25-29 1,030 1,102 1,116 919 991 1,069 956 893 838 770 744
30-34 1,020 1,063 1,137 1,154 958 1,023 1,104 994 927 870 800
35-39 1,150 1,070 1,110 1,186 1,206 1,013 1,068 1,151 1,046 975 914
40-44 1,410 1,165 1,083 1,121 1,198 1,220 1,028 1,080 1,164 1,061 989
45-49 1,540 1,403 1,161 1,079 1,117 1,194 1,217 1,027 1,078 1,163 1,061
50-54 1,720 1,557 1,420 1,179 1,093 1,130 1,208 1,233 1,046 1,093 1,179
55-59 1,580 1,722 1,569 1,433 1,195 1,106 1,141 1,220 1,248 1,065 1,108
60-64 1,550 1,584 1,727 1,588 1,454 1,220 1,126 1,158 1,238 1,270 1,093
65-69 1,300 1,522 1,570 1,714 1,593 1,463 1,236 1,139 1,169 1,250 1,287
70-74 1,060 1,226 1,445 1,506 1,651 1,551 1,433 1,220 1,125 1,153 1,235
75-79 740 935 1,096 1,304 1,377 1,520 1,447 1,347 1,158 1,070 1,098
80-84 610 585 746 889 1,073 1,152 1,286 1,243 1,170 1,017 946
85+ 410 519 574 696 849 1,044 1,211 1,394 1,492 1,524 1,471
Total 22,130 22,291 22,310 22,221 21,923 21,428 20,860 20,250 19,642 19,060 18,526
Females Low Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 1,250 1,280 1,182 1,107 1,022 974 955 937 901 850 802
5- 9 1,290 1,323 1,355 1,259 1,179 1,090 1,036 1,015 995 958 905
10-14 1,450 1,359 1,388 1,421 1,328 1,242 1,149 1,092 1,067 1,047 1,008
15-19 1,370 1,300 1,217 1,256 1,285 1,188 1,113 1,028 980 961 942
20-24 1,120 902 923 832 908 906 810 775 705 686 675
25-29 1,090 1,173 960 971 880 952 953 858 818 746 724
30-34 1,080 1,176 1,268 1,063 1,057 966 1,030 1,037 942 895 819
35-39 1,280 1,150 1,239 1,335 1,136 1,119 1,028 1,087 1,097 1,004 951
40-44 1,590 1,338 1,199 1,282 1,383 1,189 1,164 1,072 1,128 1,141 1,048
45-49 1,730 1,606 1,355 1,214 1,295 1,397 1,206 1,179 1,087 1,141 1,155
50-54 1,820 1,746 1,624 1,375 1,231 1,309 1,413 1,226 1,196 1,105 1,158
55-59 1,590 1,847 1,786 1,665 1,417 1,267 1,341 1,447 1,267 1,232 1,141
60-64 1,600 1,623 1,879 1,834 1,716 1,469 1,312 1,380 1,489 1,318 1,276
65-69 1,360 1,610 1,649 1,903 1,877 1,766 1,523 1,360 1,421 1,533 1,373
70-74 1,150 1,319 1,567 1,619 1,869 1,859 1,758 1,525 1,365 1,421 1,536
75-79 930 1,068 1,233 1,472 1,535 1,777 1,784 1,698 1,485 1,334 1,388
80-84 740 780 904 1,052 1,266 1,333 1,554 1,574 1,511 1,332 1,205
85+ 830 989 1,128 1,302 1,517 1,802 2,058 2,385 2,653 2,832 2,880
Total 23,270 23,591 23,856 23,961 23,899 23,603 23,188 22,677 22,109 21,536 20,987
Total Low Variant
Year: 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
0- 4 2,680 2,623 2,422 2,268 2,094 1,995 1,957 1,920 1,845 1,742 1,644
5- 9 2,690 2,825 2,775 2,572 2,407 2,225 2,116 2,072 2,032 1,956 1,848
10-14 2,920 2,815 2,945 2,901 2,697 2,523 2,333 2,216 2,168 2,126 2,047
15-19 2,910 2,648 2,566 2,705 2,649 2,449 2,294 2,119 2,019 1,979 1,941
20-24 2,290 2,090 1,914 1,883 2,042 1,931 1,765 1,670 1,528 1,479 1,457
25-29 2,120 2,276 2,076 1,890 1,871 2,021 1,910 1,751 1,656 1,516 1,467
30-34 2,100 2,239 2,405 2,216 2,015 1,989 2,134 2,031 1,869 1,765 1,619
35-39 2,430 2,220 2,348 2,521 2,343 2,132 2,096 2,238 2,143 1,978 1,865
40-44 3,000 2,504 2,282 2,403 2,580 2,408 2,192 2,152 2,292 2,202 2,036
45-49 3,270 3,009 2,516 2,292 2,412 2,590 2,423 2,206 2,166 2,304 2,216
50-54 3,540 3,303 3,044 2,554 2,324 2,439 2,620 2,459 2,242 2,198 2,336
55-59 3,170 3,569 3,355 3,098 2,612 2,373 2,482 2,667 2,514 2,296 2,248
60-64 3,150 3,207 3,606 3,421 3,170 2,688 2,438 2,538 2,728 2,588 2,370
65-69 2,660 3,132 3,219 3,618 3,470 3,230 2,759 2,500 2,590 2,784 2,660
70-74 2,210 2,545 3,011 3,125 3,520 3,410 3,191 2,746 2,489 2,575 2,771
75-79 1,670 2,003 2,329 2,775 2,913 3,297 3,231 3,045 2,643 2,403 2,486
80-84 1,350 1,366 1,649 1,941 2,339 2,485 2,840 2,817 2,680 2,349 2,150
85+ 1,240 1,508 1,702 1,998 2,366 2,846 3,269 3,780 4,145 4,356 4,351
Total 45,400 45,882 46,166 46,182 45,822 45,031 44,049 42,927 41,751 40,596 39,513
36 August 22, 2014
Appendix D1: Baseline Average Household Size and Methodology3, Timaru District 2013
Household Projection Methodology:
According to Statistics New Zealand 2010, the definition of a household is:
“either one person who usually resides alone, or two or more people who usually
reside together and share facilities in a private dwelling.”
Thus it reasonable to conclude that the number of households is equal to the number of
private dwellings (Jackson et al. 2014: 22).
STEP ONE: Calculate age-specific rates for each family/household type by sex (Living
Arrangement Type or LATR Rates for 2013)
One Person Households = (Number of people living in ‘One-Person households’ in each 5
year age group by sex)/Usually Resident population in age-sex group
Couple without Children Families = (Number of people living in ‘Couple without Children'
families in each 5 year age group by sex)/Usually Resident population in age-sex group
Couple with Children Families = (Number of people living in ‘Couple with Children'
families in each 5 year age group by sex)/Usually Resident population in age-sex group
One-Parent Families = (Number of people living in ‘One Parent with Children' families in
each 5 year age group by sex)/Usually Resident population in age-sex group
Multi-Person Households = (Number of people living in ‘Multi-person households' in each
5 year age group by sex)/Usually Resident population in age-sex group
3 The household projections were undertaken as a sub-contract to the project by Shefali
Pawar, Senior Research Officer, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis,
University of Waikato
Timaru
District
Average number of people per 'Other Multi-Person Household' 2.24
Average Size per 'Couple with Children Families' 3.90
Average Size per 'One-Parent Families' 2.55
Average Number of Families per 'Family Household' 1.02
37 August 22, 2014
STEP TWO: Apply these LATR rates to the projected population (by 5 year age group and
sex) of the District to get the number of usually resident population living in each
family/household type.
STEP THREE: Calculate the number of Families by Family Type and Household by
Household Type as follows:
Number of One-Person Households = Number of males living in One-Person
households + Number of females living in One-Person households
Number of Multi-Person Households = (Number of males living in Multi-Person
households + Number of females living in Multi-Person households)/ Average
number of people per 'Other Multi-Person Household
Number of Two parent families = (Number of males living in Couple with Children
families + Number of females living in Couple with Children families)/ Average Size
per Couple with Children families
Number of One Parent Families = (Number of males living in One-Parent families +
Number of females living in One-Parent families)/ Average Size per One-Parent
Family
Number of Couple without Children Families = (Number of males living in Couple
without Children families + Number of females living in Couple without Children
families)/ 2
Number of Family Households = Sum of the number of families (all three Family
Types)/ Average Number of Families per Family Household
38 August 22, 2014
Data sources for household projections
Statistics New Zealand (2013): Area of Usual Residence (2013) by Household
Composition and Age - 5 Year Groups to 85 years and over for Usual Residents in Multi
Person Households in Private Occupied Dwellings
Statistics New Zealand (2013): Area of Usual Residence (2013) by Household
Composition and Number of Usual Residents in Household Recode for households in
private occupied dwellings
Statistics New Zealand (2013): Area of Usual Residence (2013) by Family Type by
Number of Children in Family for Usual Residents in Families in Private Occupied
Dwellings
Statistics New Zealand (2013): Area of Usual Residence (2013) by Age and Five Year
Groups and Sex for the Census Usually Resident Population Count
39 August 22, 2014
Appendix D2: Projected Change in Number of Households by Family and Household Type,
2013-2063
High Variant2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
20632013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
Couple without
children families1,415 614 2,029 21.4 7.7 30.7
Two parent families 191 618 809 4.1 12.7 17.3
One parent families 123 258 381 6.8 13.4 21.2
Total Families 1,729 1,491 3,220 13.2 10.1 24.7
Family Households 1,698 1,464 3,162 13.2 10.1 24.7
One Person
Households1,972 1,904 3,876 37.6 26.4 74.0
Other multi-person
household33 75 108 5.6 12.0 18.2
Total Households 3,703 3,443 7,146 19.8 15.4 38.3
Medium Variant2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
20632013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
Couple without
children families1,087 -315 772 16.5 -4.1 11.7
Two parent families -222 -198 -421 -4.8 -4.5 -9.0
One parent families -34 -66 -100 -1.9 -3.8 -5.6
Total Families 831 -579 251 6.4 -4.2 1.9
Family Households 816 -569 247 6.4 -4.2 1.9
One Person
Households1,634 847 2,482 31.2 12.3 47.4
Other multi-person
household-5 -28 -33 -0.9 -4.7 -5.6
Total Households 2,445 251 2,695 13.1 1.2 14.4
Low Variant 2013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
20632013-
2033
2033-
2063
2013-
2063
Couple without
children families780 -1,092 -312 11.8 -14.8 -4.7
Two parent families -609 -807 -1,415 -13.1 -19.9 -30.3
One parent families -180 -308 -487 -10.0 -19.0 -27.1
Total Families -9 -2,206 -2,215 -0.1 -16.9 -17.0
Family Households -9 -2,166 -2,175 -0.1 -16.9 -17.0
One Person
Households1,359 -11 1,348 25.9 -0.2 25.7
Other multi-person
household-41 -109 -150 -6.9 -19.6 -25.2
Total Households 1,309 -2,286 -976 7.0 -11.4 -5.2
Change (Number) Change (%)
HO
US
EH
OL
DS
Change (%)Change (Number)
Change (Number) Change (%)
FA
MIL
IES
HO
US
EH
OL
DS
FA
MIL
IES
HO
US
EH
OL
DS
FA
MIL
IES
40 August 22, 2014
References
Jackson, N.O., Cameron, M. and Cochrane, B. (2014). 2014 Review of Demographic and
Labour Force Projections for the Bay of Plenty Region for the Period 2013 – 2063.
Commissioned Report. Hamilton, New Zealand: University of Waikato, National
Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis.
Rowland, D. (2003) Population Projections and Estimates, Demographic Methods and
Concepts. Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Statistics New Zealand. (2010). Subnational Family and Household Projections: 2006
(base) – 2031 update. Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz
Statistics New Zealand. (2012) Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex,
2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update). Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz
Statistics New Zealand. (2014) Estimated Resident Population (ERP): Subnational
Population by Ethnic Group, Age, and Sex at 30th June 1996, 2001, 2006, and
2013. Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz