Today’s Economy & the Role of Federal Lands...Commodity Production We define non-metro as rural....

transcript

Today’sEconomy&theRoleofFederalLands

1PhotocourtesyofChrisBoyer

Outline

PageEconomicrolesoffederallands 4Economiccontext– theU.S. 14Economiccontext– theWest 20Atheoryofruraldevelopment 33

Federallands&ruraleconomies 43

Federallands&politics 55

Slideshowversion3-24-17

Federallands

BureauofLandManagement23%

ForestService19%

NationalPark3%

Remainder:U.S.Fish&Wildlife&military,other

Allfederallands48%ofWest

Statelands6%

Rounded%s.Fed.Landsalsoincludemilitary,fish&wildlife.U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.U.S.ProtectedAreasDatabase(PADUS)v.1.4

Economicrolesoffederallands

CommodityProduction

Wedefinenon-metroasrural.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting. Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.

Mining,oil,gas,timber

PersonalIncomefromEmploymentinResourceExtraction,Non-MetroWest2015

Wildlife&Biodiversity

Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm

Scenery

Photo:NationalParkServicehttp://www.nps.gov/arch/photosmultimedia/index.htm

Culture,Heritage

OutdoorRecreation$646billioninretailsales6.1millionjobs

$40billioninfederaltaxrevenues$40billioninstate/localtaxrevenues

IntheWest:

1.9milliondirectjobsinoutdoorrecreation(80%thesizeofconstructionsector)

95%ofwesternvotersvisitedfederallandsin2015

Federallandsrecreationresponsibleforatleast$51billioninvisitorexpenditures

The West is defined here as Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. West-wide jobs numbers for comparison from: U.S. Department ofCommerce. 2016. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts, Washington, D.C. Table CA25N. Outdoor recreation figures from: https://outdoorindustry.org/images/ore_reports/CO-colorado-outdoorrecreationeconomy-oia.pdf. Visitation to public lands from: https://www.coloradocollege.edu/dotAsset/5e3d4978-4cb7-4784-bf36-b086cf332fc9.pdf. Federal and expenditures from (page 22) of:http://www.coloradotpa.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/USFS-Econ-Impacts-Rec.pdf.

143millionAmericansparticipate

EcosystemServicesWaterpurification,erosion&floodcontrol,carbonstorage,climateregulation,pollination,medicine,etc.

Example:

NationalForests

Waterfor66millionpeoplein3,400communitiesworth$7.2billionannually

IntheWest:

NationalForestsprovide33%ofourwater

86%inWashingtonState

NationalForestfiguresfrom:https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/national-forests-grasslands/water-facts.Westfiguresfrom:https://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/45417.Imagefrom:http://www.clipartpanda.com/clipart_images/watersheds-are-complex-22834047.

CommunityEconomicDevelopmentFederallands,asasetting,makeacommunityapleasantplacetolive&dobusiness.Retainpeople&business

ColoradoSprings

AmenityMigration

Federallandsattractpeople&business,movingforjobsANDlifestyle

CedarCity

RecruitTalent

RightNowTechnologies,basedinBozeman,Montana,advertisedBozeman'squalityoflifetoattractsoftwareengineers.ThisstrategyallowedthecompanytogrowtothepointwhereafewyearsagoitsoldtoOracleformorethan$1billion,andstilloperatesinBozeman.Forotherbusinessleaderquotes,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-is-best-value-of-public-lands/13 andhttp://www.businessformontanasoutdoors.com/. 13

“Ourqualityoflifeisdefinedbyourpubliclandsandaccesstothem.ThisgivesusandothertechcompaniesinMontanaadistinctcompetitiveadvantage.Wecanrecruitandretaintoptalentsuccessfullywithinandoutsidethestatebecauseoftheworld-classlandscapethatsurroundsus.”

LanceTrebesch CEO,TicketPrinting.com

Economiccontext

Let’sstartwiththeU.S.economy

U.S.economy

-4,659,400

-654,700

-475,000

-33,300

110,600

408,600

514,900

630,100

693,600

747,600

1,089,800

1,139,200

1,205,000

1,812,100

1,836,200

2,098,300

2,119,800

3,219,300

3,280,600

3,457,700

6,283,600

ManufacturingInformation

Farm employmentUtilities

Forestry, fishing, & related activities (.4%)Construction (1.3%)

Wholesale trade (1.7%)Management of companies & enterprises (2.1%)

Retail Trade (2.3%)Mining (2.4%)

Arts, entertainment, & recreation (3.6%)Transportation & warehousing (3.7%)

Government & government enterprises (3.9%)Finance & insurance (5.9%)Educational services (6.0%)

Other services, except public admin. (6.8%)Administrative & waste services (6.9%)

Professional & technical services (10.5%)Real estate & rental & leasing (10.7%)

Accommodation & food services (11.3%)Health care & social assistance (20.5%)

Change in U.S. Jobs 2000-2015(% of total growth in parenthesis)

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.

31millionnewjobs

>95%inservices

Mostjobgrowthinservices

U.S.changeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)

-4,659,400

-654,700

-475,000

-33,300

110,600

408,600

514,900

630,100

693,600

747,600

1,089,800

1,139,200

1,205,000

1,812,100

1,836,200

2,098,300

2,119,800

3,219,300

3,280,600

3,457,700

6,283,600

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

Private Industries Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Professional, Scientific, And Technical Services Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Health Care And Social Assistance Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

AllindustriesinU.S.

Professional,scientific&tech.services

Valueofproduction&jobstrackclosely

Healthcare

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N andRegionalEconomicAccountshttps://www.bea.gov/regional/downloadzip.cfm.

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

) Manufacturing Industry Value Added vs. Employment, 1948-2014

Manufacturingisanexception

88%ofjoblossduetoautomation

FigureisforU.S.https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/changing-role-manufacturing/Automationfigurefrom:HicksMJandDevaraj S.2015.TheMythandtheRealityofManufacturinginAmerica.Muncie,IN:CenterofBusinessandEconomicResearch,BallStateUniversity.http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf.

Productivityhigherthanever,butwithfewerworkers

$33.17%

$22.43%

$20.04%

Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%

Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,

FiguresforU.S.http://www.bls.gov/industriesataglance

Othersectorsoutperformingmanufacturing

Example:

$33.17%

$22.43%

$20.04%

Unemployment%rate%(Sept%2015)% Average%hourly%earnings% U.S.%jobs%(Milions)%

Professional,,Scien/fic,,&,Technical,Services, Health,&,Social,Assistance, Manufacturing,

U.S.jobs(millions)Averagehourlyearnings

19FigureisforU.S..AdaptedfromWashingtonPost,Wonkblog.March10,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/03/10/the-people-who-were-left-behind-two-months-ago-are-still-left-behind/?utm_term=.6d19ba72044a

Workersproducemore,butwageshavenotkeptup

%gaininworkerproductivityvs.compensation,1948-2013

Economiccontext

TheWest

TheWestoutperformstherestofthecountry

TheWEST

FordetailsontheWest’sperformancecomparedtotherestofthecountry,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/west-wide-summary/ 21

Westchangeinjobs2000-2015(%oftotalgrowthinparenthesis)

-591,364

-64,079

-43,079

-22,355

43,435

75,558

126,138

195,846

308,576

314,538

356,965

370,565

391,378

401,286

493,550

519,518

786,689

788,790

806,230

1,689,711

-1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000

Farm employmentConstruction

Utilities (.1%)Management of companies & enterprises (.6%)

Forestry, fishing, & related activities (1.0%)Mining (1.6%)

Wholesale trade (2.6%)Arts, entertainment, & recreation (4.0%)

Transportation & warehousing (4.1%)Finance & insurance (4.6%)

Government & government enterprises (4.8%)Retail Trade (5.1%)

Educational services (5.2%)Other services, except public admin. (6.4%)

Administrative & waste services (6.8%)Accommodation & food services (10.2%)

Real estate & rental & leasing (10.3%)Professional & technical services (10.5%)

Health care & social assistance (22.0%)

8.4millionnewjobs

90%inservices

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicInformationSystem,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N. 22

Mostjobgrowthinservices

-4,659,400

-654,700

-475,000

-33,300

110,600

408,600

514,900

630,100

693,600

747,600

1,089,800

1,139,200

1,205,000

1,812,100

1,836,200

2,098,300

2,119,800

3,219,300

3,280,600

3,457,700

6,283,600

TheWEST

West personalincomebysource,2015

Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N

1.4% 11.0%

12.4% Non-Labor: retirement,investments,etc.

Extractive:mining,oil,gas,timber

Manufacturing,construction,agriculture

Services:health,engineering,education,etc.

Government

Services:health,engineering,education,etc.Government

RuralWest– verysimilar;personalincomebysource,2015

Wedefineruralasnon-metro.Metrocountiescontainacorepopulationof50,000ormorepeopleorare“outlying”countiesandtiedeconomicallytothecoreareasbylaborforcecommuting.Datafrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.Agriculturein2015represented3%oftotalpersonalincomeinthenon-metro,orruralWest.

Services:health,engineering,education,etc.

Government

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millionsof2015$s

Government Non-Labor Non-Services Services

PersonalincomeintheWest

ServicesDoctors,engineers,lawyers,accountants,waiters,barbers,etc.

Non-Labor Retirement,investments,SocialSecurity,Medicare,Medicaid,etc.

Government

Non-Servicesredline

Local,state,federal

Construction,manufacturing,mining,oil&gas,agriculture,etc.

http://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millionsof2015$s

Services

Whysomuchgrowthinservices?>90%ofLABORincomegrowthinlastdecade Demandhasincreased:

Healthcare,insuranceHightechproductsLeisure,entertainment

Supplyhasincreased:

Newindustries(software)

Somefunctionsonceinternalto“goodsproduction”nowoutsourced&countedasservices(e.g.accounting)

Servicesnothighlyautomated(thewaymanufacturingis)

Servicesare50%oflaborincomein2015.Figureisintermsoflaborincome,asubsetoftotalpersonalincome;theremainderisnon-laborincome.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25N.

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Millionsof2015$s

Non-Labor

Non-laboris36%ofTPIin2015.Figureisintermsoftotalpersonalincome(laborplusnon-laborincome).U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA25NForathoroughanalysisofthethreetypesofnon-laborincome,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/non-labor/

Whysomuchgrowthinnon-laborincome?>55%ofTOTALPERSONALINCOMEgrowthinlastdecade

Three typesofnon-laborincome:

InvestmentRelated(dividends,interest&rent)

AgeRelated(retirement,Medicare,socialsecurity,etc.)

Hardship-related(Medicaid,foodstamps,etc.)

BabyBoomers&thestockmarket

Investment-related20%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest

(Dividends,Interest&Rent)

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.

Age-related8%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest

(SocialSecurity,Medicare)

29Lawson,M.,R.Rasker,andP.Gude.2014.“TheImportanceofNon-LaborIncome:AnAnalysisofSocioeconomicPerformanceinWesternCountiesbyTypeofNon-LaborIncome.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.44(2):175-190.

Hardship-related5.7%oftotalpersonalincomeintheWest

(Medicaid,incomemaintenance,unemploymentcompensation)

Foodstampimagefrom:http://publicradioeast.org/post/snap-food-stamps-require-20-hour-work-week

Non-laborincomewillcontinuetogrow

Injustfiveyears1/4ofuswillbe55yearsorolder

75millionareBabyBoomers,bornbetween1946and1964.By2020,25%ofallworkerswillbeatleast55yearsold andeverymonth,morethanaquarter-millionAmericansturn65.Yet,only17%ofBabyBoomersarecurrentlyretired.http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-baby-boomers-retirement-means-for-the-u-s-economy/. 31

BabyBoomerscontrol80%ofthefinancialassetsofthecountry

Westerncountiesdependmostlyonservices&non-laborincome

> 10%oflaborearningsfrom:

Timber 1%ofallcountiesMining 12%ofallcounties(2%oil&gas)

> 50%oflaborearningsfrom:

Services 41%ofallcounties

> 50%oftotalpersonalincomefrom:

Non-Labor 25%ofallcounties

Datafor2015.Thereare414countiesintheWest,ofwhich278arenon-metro.From2000-2015,80%ofcountiesaddedpopulation,19%lost.Duringthattime74%ofnon-metrocountiesgrewwhile25%lostpopulation.Miningincludesoil,gas,coal,minerals.2%ofcountieshave>10%oflaborearningsfrompeoplewhoworkinoilandgas.Intermsofnon-laborincome:48%ofcountieswith>20%ofTPIfrominvestmentincome.70%ofcountieshave>10%ofTPIfromage-relatedincome;and21%have>10%ofTPIfromhardship-relatedsources. Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA05.

Atheoryofrural

development

Touristsneedaccessbyair:nearly4outof5airtripsareforleisure(79%)

Airaccessbenefitstherestoftheeconomy;e.g.techworkerstravelbyair60-400%morethangeneralworkforce

4outof5statisticfromUSTravel.org https://www.ustravel.org/answersheet.Techworkerstatfrom:Kasarda,J.D.,2000a.Logisticsandtheriseofaerotropolis.RealEstateIssues27(4),43–49.andKasarda,J.D.,2000b.Aerotropolis:airport-driven urban development.Cities inthe 21stCentury.UrbanLand Institute,Washington,D.C.,pp.32–41.

Accesstomajorpopulationcentersisaprincipledriverofeconomicopportunity

Agriculture&resourceextraction

Tourism Transportationinfrastructure

Diverseeconomy:

Agriculture,resourceindustries,tourism,plus

high-tech

footloosebusinesses

investmentincome,retirement,semi-retirement

building,healthcare,retail,etc.

AMENITYMIGRATION

Overtime,asacommunitydiversifiesfromresourceindustriestoincludetourism,theeconomywillexpandiftransportationinfrastructurealsoexpands

Thereare3typesofcountiesMETRO(&commutershed)HigherwagesLessvolatilityMorehigh-wageservicesFastest-growingYoungerMoreeducated

RURAL&ISOLATEDLowestwagesMostvolatilityFewhigh-wageservicesSlowest-growingOlder&agingLesseducated

CONNECTED(viaairports)Overtime,performmorelikeMETRO

97%ofpopulationlivesineitherMETROorCONNECTED

https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/three-wests-explained/

75%ofalljobsareconcentratedincities

https://headwaterseconomics.org/economic-development/trends-performance/urban-areas-drive-economic-growth-in-the-west/

92%Westliveinmetroareas

75%restofcountry

TheWestisthemosturbanpartofthecountry

MichaelStratton,usedbypermission

“Foroveracenturypunditshavebeenpredictingthatnewformsofcommunicationwouldmakeurbanlifeirrelevant.

Todefeatthehumanneedforface-to-facecontacts,ourtechnologicalmarvelswouldneedtodefeatmillionsofyearsofhumanevolutionthathasmadeusintomachinesforlearningfromthepeoplenexttous.”

Theadvantageofcitiesisthesocialnetwork

“Inthetwentiethcentury,competitionwasaboutaccumulatingphysicalcapital.

Todayitisaboutattractingthebesthumancapital.”

Humancapitaliscritical

Goodpayingjobsexist,butinterstatemobilityamongAmericanhasdeclined.Reasonswhyhere:https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2896309

FigureisforU.S.in2014fromU.S.Dept.Labor,BureauofLaborStatistics,CurrentPopulationSurvey. 41

Highereducationlevelsmean

higherwageslowerunemployment &

Less than a

high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

Median weekly earnings in 2014 ($)

Unemployment rate in 2014 (%)

All workers: 5% All workers: $839

Earnings and Unemployment Rates by Educational Attainment

Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers.

Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Less than a

high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

Less than a

high school diploma

High school diploma

Some college,

no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Professional degree

Doctoral degree

SUMMARY:theeconomyoftheWest

Veryurban

Urban&ruralwithairportsdobetter

Resourcedependenceisrare

Growthinservices&non-laborincome&

Humancapitaliskey

Whatroledofederalpubliclandsplay?42

Federallands&

ruraleconomies

Whatistheeconomicperformanceofruralcountieswithfederallands?

Population Employment PersonalIncome PerCapitaIncome

Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofFEDERALland,

1970-2015.

Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareoffederallandsinthetop25thpercentile

Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/

Countieswithmorefederallandsgrowfaster

Averagegrowth1970-2015

Mostfederallands

Fewfederallands

1970-2015.

Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile

Countyshareoffederallandinruralwesterncounties:

46Seeinteractivedatavisualization:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/federal-lands-performance/

Growthcouldbebecauseofrecreation,timber,minerals,energy,services,migration,non-laborincome,homebuilding,medical,etc.

Top25thfederallands

Bottom25thfederallands

25%offederallandsarePROTECTED

FederallandsintheWest:346millionacres

Protected (Nat.Park,Wilderness,N.Monument,etc.)

Somewhatprotected(WildernessStudy,Roadless)

MultipleUse

Protectedincludes:NationalParksandPreserves(NPS),Wilderness(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),NationalConservationAreas(BLM),NationalMonuments(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalRecreationAreas(NPS,FS,BLM),NationalWildandScenicRivers(NPS,FS,BLM),WaterfowlProduction Areas(FWS),WildlifeManagementAreas(FWS),ResearchNaturalAreas(FS,BLM),AreasofCriticalEnvironmentalConcern(BLM),andNationalWildlifeRefuges(FWS).

Somewhatprotectedincludes:WildernessStudyAreas(NPS,FWS,FS,BLM),InventoriedRoadlessAreas(FS).

MultipleuseincludesPublicDomainLands(BLM),O&CLands(BLM),NationalForestsandGrasslands(FS).

Source:U.S.GeologicalSurvey,GapAnalysisProgram.2016.ProtectedAreasDatabaseoftheUnitedStates(PADUS)version1.4

(non-military)

CountieswithmorePROTECTEDfederallandsgrowfaster

Mostfederalands

Fewfederalands

Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.

Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile

Mostprotectedfederallands

Leastprotectedfederallands

Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.Allincomefiguresadjustedforinflation.https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/

Averagegrowth1970-2015

1970-2015.

Top25th percentileBottom25th percentile

CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederallandinruralwesterncounties:

Percentchangesinsocioeconomicperformanceinnon-metrowesterncountiesinthetop25thandbottom25thpercentilesofproportionofprotectedfederalland,1970-2015.

Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthebottom25thpercentile Countieswithshareofprotectedfederallandsinthetop25thpercentile

RuralcountieswithhighlevelofPROTECTEDhavefasterpersonalincomegrowth

AverageTotalPersonalIncomeGrowth1970-2015

Ruralisdefinedasnon-metro.https://headwaterseconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/Methods-federal-lands-performance.pdf.

$248,136

$1,005,575

$209,502

$547,535

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

Counties withshareofprotected federallandsinthetop 25thpercentileCounties withshareofprotected federallandsinthebottom 25thpercentile

Top25th percentile

Bottom25th percentile

CountyshareofPROTECTEDfederalland:

In2015$,x1000

Protectedfederallandsexplainpartoftherelativesizeofpercapitaincomeforruralcounties

Example

https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122.

Example

Relativetootherfactors,includingmigration,education,age-relatednon-laborincome,elevation,airporttraveltime,resourcedependence&others.

Foreach100,000acresofWilderness,NationalPark,NationalMonumentinacountythePerCapitaIncomeincreases$4,360

$0$436

$2,180

$4,360

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

0acres 10,000acres 50,000acres 100,000acres

MeanIncreasein

PerCapita

Income

ProtectedPublicLands

IfcountiesA&Bwereidenticalineveryway,butcountyAhada50,000acresofprotectedpubliclandandcountyBhadnone,youwouldexpectincomeincountyAtobeonaverage$2,180higherperperson.

https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/protected-public-lands-increase-per-capita-income/andRasker,R.,P.Gude,andM.Delorey.2013.“TheEffectofProtectedFederalLandsonEconomicProsperityintheNon-metropolitanWest.”JournalofRegionalAnalysisandPolicy.43(2):110-122

NationalMonuments:growthbefore&afterdesignation

Theaboveareexamples.Toseehoweachmonumentperformed,see:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/

17 National Monuments >10,000 acres & designated in 1982 or later – economy grew in each

Does not imply cause & effect, but proves no decline in economy

Cascade-SiskiyouDesignated:2000

GrandCanyonParashantDesignated:2000

GrandStaircase-EscalanteDesignated:1996

IntheWEST

104millionvisitorsspent$6.7billion

creating104,000jobs&

$3.7billioninlaborincome

NationalParkscreatejobs

IntheU.S.307millionvisitorsspent$16.9billion,creating293,300jobs&$11.1billioninlaborincomehttps://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/vse.htm andhttps://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/

Retireesmigratetowesterncountieswithprotectedpubliclands

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,PopulationDivision,Washington,D.C.ForamorethoroughexplanationofmethodsusedcontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org.

Mostprotectedfederallands

LeastProtectedfederallands

Federallands&

politics

“Itisourgoaltogettheloggerbacktologging,togettherancherbacktoranching,togettheminerbacktomining,thefarmerbacktofarming— andtojump-startthiseconomyinHarneyCounty.”

AmmonBundyMalheurWildlifeRefuge

PhotoAP/RickBowmer viahttp://www.salon.com/2016/01/09/ammon_bundy_is_not_a_terrorist_the_authorities_are_waiting_out_the_militia_just_as_they_should_do_with_black_lives_matter_protesters/

PartsoftheruralWestarebeingleftbehind

Westernsawmillsandtimberproduction

ManufacturingautomationalsoimpactsruralWesterncounties

InOregon,themosttimber-dependentstate,timberharvestsincreasedby50%between2009&2013,whiletimberemploymentincreasedby1%

ORtimberharvest:BureauofBusinessandEconomicResearch,UniversityofMontana:http://www.bber.umt.edu/FIR/HarvestOR.aspx.Lumberandwoodproductsmanufacturingemploymentfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableSA25N.Figureshowingtherelationshipbetweensawmillproductionandmillsadaptedfrom:OregonOfficeofEconomicAnalysis.WoodProductsProductivity,anUpdate.https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2012/01/26/wood-products-productivity-an-update/.

Rural(Non-Metro)

Urban(Metro) U.S.

Families belowpoverty 9.4% 11.9% 11.5%

Households receiving:

SupplementalS.Security(welfare) 4.8% 5.3% 5.3%

Foodstamps 9.8% 10.9% 13%

Retirementincome 22.8% 16.1% 17.8%

SocialSecurity 36.4% 26% 29.3%

%population65yrs.or older 17.3% 12.2% 14.1%

Rateofjobgrowth2000-2015 12% 21% 15%

Ave.earnings/job2015 $44,336 $62,338 $58,228

Ruralwesterncountyeconomicsaffectspolitics

lesspoverty

but…..

older&relymoreonretirement$

slowerjobgrowth

Ruralcountieshave:

U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.CensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurveyOffice,Washington,D.C.;U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2000.CensusBureau,SystemsSupportDivision,Washington,D.C.Jobfiguresfrom:U.S.DepartmentofCommerce.2016.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,RegionalEconomicAccounts,Washington,D.C.TableCA30.Someotherindicatorsshowlittledifference:UnemploymentrateApril2017(rural5.6%,urban5%).%pop.Growthfrommigration2000-2015(rural35%,urban39%).

lowerwages

59https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/west-wide-atlas/ 68of413countieslostjobsfrom2005- 2015

Jobgrowthisnotevenlydistributed

16%ofcountieslostjobsinthelastdecade

Ruralisolatedcountiesperformworsethanthoseconnectedviaairtravel

60http://brilliantmaps.com/2016-county-election-map/.“Redvs.BluePoliticalDivideMayReallyBeAboutYoungvs.Old”http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/red-vs-blue-political-divide-may-really-be-about-young-n725651

Aredifferencesinjobgrowthreflectedinthe2016presidentialelection?

TrumpClinton

Oraretheyalsoareflectionofruralcountiesbeingolder,witholdervotersfavoringTrump?

Notsurprisingly,tensionsriseonallsides

POLL:Westernersvisitpubliclandthemost

Visitedinthelastyear

93% 78%

17%ofwesternersvisitedmorethan20times,comparedto4%forU.S.

2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.

POLL:Mostbelievefederalpubliclandshelpeconomy

Helpsoureconomy

Haslittleimpact

2016surveysbyDaveMetz/Fairbank,Maslin,Maullin,Metz$Associates,LoriWeigel/PublicOpinionStrategies.

protectcleanwater,air,wildlifewhileprovidingaccesstonationalpubliclands

58% stronglyopposeturningfederallandstostates(33%support)

80% NationalMonuments- keepthemthatway

75% conservationofpubliclandsatopissuewhendecidingonacandidate

supportLand&WaterConservationFund75%

POLL:Westernerssupportconservationoffederallands

ColoradoCollege,StateoftherockiesProject.https://www.coloradocollege.edu/other/stateoftherockies/conservationinthewest/2017/2017SORPollReleasePresentation.pdf.BasedonJan.2017pollinginMT,WY,NV,UT,CO,AZ,andNM.

Jan.3,2017.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/01/03/house-gop-rules-change-would-make-it-easier-to-sell-off-federal-land/?utm_term=.480ab9240a70Jan.4,2017http://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/local/2017/01/04/zinke-vote-federal-land-comes-fire/96171020Fromhttps://zinke.house.gov/issues/public-lands“Iwillnottoleratesellingourpubliclands.” Jan.17,2017https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/17/us/politics/ryan-zinke-interior-secretary.htm.Rep.Chaffetz’s billproposedtosell3.3millionacresoffedland.http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/letters-from-the-west/article130291054.html 65

Federallandsareinthenews

Feb.16,2017.http://www.sltrib.com/home/4952414-155/outdoor-retailer-convention-leaving-utah“Herbert”intheheadlinereferstoUtah’sGovernorGaryHerbert. 66

Generated$45millionforSaltLakeCity

RayRasker,Ph.D.ExecutiveDirector

ray@headwaterseconomics.org406570-7044

RESOURCESHeadwatersEconomics:https://headwaterseconomics.org/

Freeanalyticaltools:https://headwaterseconomics.org/tools/

Publiclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/public-lands/

Federallands:liabilityorasset:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/federal-lands-performance/

Thevalueofpubliclands:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/public-lands-research/

NationalMonuments:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/national-monuments/

NationalParks:https://headwaterseconomics.org/public-lands/protected-lands/economic-impact-of-national-parks/

Economicdevelopment:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/

Localstudies:https://headwaterseconomics.org/topic/economic-development/local-studies/

ThreeWests:https://headwaterseconomics.org/dataviz/three-wests/

Trailsbenefitslibrary: https://headwaterseconomics.org/trail/

ForhighresolutioncopiesofanyslidepleasecontactRayRaskerray@headwaterseconomics.org or406570-7044

Jakus,P.2016.WhatDoestheQualityofPublicLandsImplyforFederalLandTransfers?WesternPolicyBrief.July.http://wrdc.usu.edu/files/publications/publication/pub__3361871.pdf. 69

Caveats

Federallands=moregrowthdoesnotimplycause&effect

But,noevidencethatpubliclands,orconservation,hurtslocaleconomies

Publiclandamenitiesareimportant,butnotsufficient

Alsoneeded:AccesstopopulationcentersEducationDiverseeconomy

Somedifferencesineconomicperformancemayalsobeafunctionoftopographyandhistoricallanduse:communitiesdominatedbyflat,arablelandtendtodependmoreonagriculture,andarenotdoingaswellintheruralWest.Westernlandsunsuitableforagriculturearemorelikelytohavealargeshareoffederalland,whichinsomeplaceshasspurredmorediverseeconomicactivity.

Today’s Economy & the Role of Federal Lands...Commodity Production We define non-metro as rural....

Documents