Towards the Cooperation in Central Asia via Energy Saving and Renewable Energy

Integrating Central Asia into the World Economy: The Role of

Energy and Transport InfrastructureWashington, 21-22 October, 2007

Kanat Baigarin, Dr.Climate Change Co-ordination Centre

General Information: Some regional organizations and Program in Central Asia

• OCAC (CA Cooperation): KZ,KR,RU,TJ, UZ

• OCAREC (CA Regional Economical Cooperation): AZ,CHI,KZ,KR,MO,TJ,UZ

• CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States)

• OEC (Economical Cooperation): AF,AZ,IR,KZ,KR,PA,TJ,TU,TRK,UZ

• EEC (Euro-asian economical community): BE,KZ,RK,RU,TJ,+UZ

• ShOC (Shanghai organization for Cooperation): CH,KZ,RK,RU,TJ,UZ

• UEA (Unified Economical Area): BE,KZ,RU,UK

• SPECA (Special UN Program for CA Economy): AF,AZ,KZ,RK,TJ,TRK,UZ

General Information: Review of CA States participation in Regional

cooperationStates OCAC CAREC CIS OEC EEC ShOC UEA SPECA

Kazakhstan X X X X X X X XKyrgyzstan X X X X X X X

Tajikistan X X X X X X X

Turkmenistan X X X X

Uzbekistan X X X X X X

General Information: Map of Central Asia

Kazakhstan: Export-Import Priorities

• Exports:$35.55 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Exports - commodities:

oil and oil products 58%, ferrous metals 24%, chemicals 5%, machinery 3%, grain, wool, meat, coal (2001)

• Exports - partners: Germany 12.4%, Russia 11.6%, China 10.9%, Italy 10.5%, France 7.4%, Romania 4.9% (2006) Imports: $22 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.)

• Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment 41%, metal products 28%, foodstuffs 8% (2001)

• Imports - partners: Russia 36.7%, China 19.5%, Germany 7.4% (2006)

Uzbekistan: Export-Import Priorities

• Exports: $5.51 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Exports - commodities: cotton, gold, energy products, mineral

fertilizers, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, textiles, food products, machinery, automobiles

• Exports - partners: Russia 23.9%, Poland 11.8%, China 10.5%, Turkey 7.5%, Kazakhstan 6%, Ukraine 4.7%, Bangladesh 4.4% (2006)

• Imports: $3.99 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment, foodstuffs,

chemicals, ferrous and non-ferrous metals • Imports - partners: Russia 27.8%, South Korea 15.6%, China

10.4%, Kazakhstan 7.3%, Germany 7.1%, Ukraine 4.8%, Turkey 4.5% (2006)

Turkmenistan: Export-Import Priorities

• Exports: $5.421 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Exports - commodities: gas, crude oil, petrochemicals, cotton

fiber, textiles • Exports - partners: Ukraine 47.2%, Iran 16.3%, Azerbaijan

4.3% (2006) • Imports: $3.936 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Imports - commodities: machinery and equipment, chemicals,

foodstuffs • Imports - partners: UAE 13.7%, Azerbaijan 11.8%, Turkey

9.9%, Ukraine 8.1%, Russia 8%, Germany 6.9%, Iran 6.7%, China 5.7% (2006)

Kyrgyzstan: Export-Import Priorities

• Exports: $701.8 million f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Exports - commodities: cotton, wool, meat, tobacco;

gold, mercury, uranium, natural gas, hydropower; machinery; shoes Exports - partners: UAE 35.7%, Russia 20.2%, Kazakhstan 13%, China 11.7% (2006)

• Imports: $1.177 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Imports - commodities: oil and gas, machinery and

equipment, chemicals, foodstuffs Imports - partners:China 56.8%, Russia 15.1%, Kazakhstan 8.1% (2006)

Tajikistan: Export-Import Priorities

• Exports: $1.16 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Exports - commodities: aluminum, electricity, cotton, fruits,

vegetable oil, textiles • Exports - partners: Norway 13.9%, Russia 13%, Turkey

12.2%, Uzbekistan 9.4%, US 6.4%, Italy 5.3%, Iran 5.2%, Greece 4.2% (2006)

• Imports: $1.513 billion f.o.b. (2006 est.) • Imports - commodities: electricity, petroleum products,

aluminum oxide, machinery and equipment, foodstuffs • Imports - partners: Russia 21.2%, China 17.2%, Kazakhstan

10.6%, Uzbekistan 9.6%, Azerbaijan 7.3%, Ukraine 5.2%, Turkey 4% (2006)

General Information:States Populati

onRural GDP(PPP)/

GDP(ExR)

GDP/capita(PPP)

PowerProduction/Consumption

IntensityCO2

GDPRate

Population bellow poverty

Million Million Bln.$ $ Bln.kWh Kg/$1000

% %

Kazakhstan 15.3 6,9 143.4/54 9400 66.5/56 6 10,6 19

Kyrgyzstan 5,3 3,37 10.7/2.3 2100 14/6.8 3,2 2,7 40

Tajikistan 7,07 4,8 9.5/2.1 1300 16.5/15.7

4,0 7 64

Turkmenistan 5,1 2,6 42.8/15.2 8500 11/9 6 6 58

Uzbekistan 27,8 16,3 55.7/10.83

2000 49/47 8 7.3 33

Total 60.6 4o 250/85 160 21-22 mln

General capacity – 18,190 МW; The Northern zone -13,130 MWThe Western energy zone - 2,070 MWThe Southern Energy Zone-2,990 MW Thermal gas-turbine and steam-to-gas stations – 395 MW (2%); Hydraulic power stations 2230 MВт (12%) Thermal steam-power plants that use organic fuel – 15,565 MW (86%);

Kazakhstan

The structure of power plants installed capacity in Kazakhstan:

Kazakhstan has a high potential Kazakhstan has a high potential for energy saving:for energy saving:

A weighted energy consumption for production of some energy intensive products:

Kazakhstan the United States

copper 1,442 kWh/tons 300 kWh/tons

rolled iron 190 kWh/tons 23 kWh/tons

steel 650 kWh/tons 152 kWh/tons

aluminum 670 kWh/tons 240 kWh/tons

Wind power potential estimates -a total capacity of 2,000 Wind power potential estimates -a total capacity of 2,000 ММW(500MW up to 2030)W(500MW up to 2030)

Attractiveness of these projects:

• immediate proximity to the existing power lines;

• high level of demand for energy;

• especially good conditions in the area of the Djungar Gates and the Shelek Corridor in the Almaty Oblast

Wind potential in North KazakhstanWind potential in North KazakhstanIsovents of annual average wind speed for North Kazakhstan based on the period 1951-11977(Wind Energy in Kazakhstan, part1:Market Development Study,1998)

Example- Pilot Wind PS-5MW in Djungar Gates

•The Kazakhstan / UNDP/GEF Project «On Overcoming Barriers to Development of Wind Power Engineering in Kazakhstan» (1997-1999), GEF possible grant for construction of a WPS-5 MW $ US 1,000,000

•Pre-feasibility completed. Almatyautomatica JSC completed work on installation of a 500 kW wind power station in the Druzhba Railway Station area.

• Supported from the Government of Kazakhstan. Need to develop legislative documents ( privileges and taxes) to implement the Project and to promote RE

•Proposed as JI/CDM project: total project cost : US $ 5.2 million

Annual Emission Reductions- 21,211t CO2

ERs Eligible for CDM (2004 –2012) 190,899 t CO2

ERs Eligible for JI( 2008-2012) 106,055 t CO2

Instalation of DjungarWPS-500kW byJSC AlmatyAvtomatika

Hydro power potential estimates at 170TWh/yr Construction of 450 small hydropower plants of a total capacity of 2,500 МW

with production of 11 TWh/year •At present the country use about 8 TWh/year.

•The preference - construction of new ( Mainak HPP-300MW and Kerbulak HPP-500MW); construction and also rehabilitation of small and middle-size HPPs which are economically wise.

•The Almaty Oblast – the best perspective for development of small HPPs ( but dependent on large energy imports from other regions )

•Current delivery system for baseline estimation (displacement of fossil fuel fired plants)

Coal Mining

Gas Production

Condensing Power Plants APC, HPP3

Coal/Lignite

Natural Gas

Transport

Electricity to the grid End User

Cogeneration Plants

APC; HPP1; HPP2

Heat Output End User

Production of oil Fuel Oil Transport

Transport

The Bartogay hydropower site