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TRAVEL TRENDS & FORECASTS (GLOBAL, ASIA PACIFIC & THE PHILIPPINES) Jocelyn Cheung, Services & Payments Analyst
Philippines Travel Exchange Educational Seminar – August 2017
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
TRAVEL TRENDS IN PHILIPPINES
LOOKING AHEAD
© Euromonitor International 3
Research Coverage EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
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Research Expertise
EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
Alcoholic Drinks
Apparel
Automotive
Beauty and Personal Care
Consumer Appliances
Consumer Electronics
Eyewear
Fresh Food
Health and Wellness
Home and Garden
Home Care
Hot Drinks
Consumer Health
Luxury Goods
Nutrition
Packaged Food
Personal Accessories
Pet Care
Soft Drinks
Tobacco
Toys and Games
Tissue and Hygiene
Services
Consumer Foodservice
Institutional Channels
Consumer Finance
Retailing
Travel
Supply
Ingredients
Packaging
Economies
Business Dynamics
Cities
Economy, Finance and Trade
Industrial
Consumers
Lifestyles
Income and Expenditure
Households
Population Ethical Labels
Digital Consumer
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
TRAVEL TRENDS IN PHILIPPINES
LOOKING AHEAD
© Euromonitor International 6
The world is increasingly looking to the east THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2008 2012 2017 2022
WesternEuropeNorth America
Middle Eastand AfricaLatin America
Eastern Europe
Australasia
Asia Pacific
Source: Euromonitor International from UNWTO
Mill
ion
tri
ps
OK
20% 23% 25% 28%
43% 40%
39%
36%
3.7% 2017 Global arrivals growth
4.1% 2017 Inbound receipts value growth
3.5% 2017 World GDP
*2017 are estimated figures
1.5billion
World arrivals by region in trips 2008-2022
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The New Consumerism drives global travel demand THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
GIG ECONOMY
OLD IS THE NEW YOUNG
EXPERIENCE MORE
MINDFULNESS & WELLNESS
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Global mobile travel sales ride on the Experience-More megatrend THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
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UK hits an online ceiling but plenty of room for growth elsewhere THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
% s
har
e
Online % of Travel Sales to Residents in Key Markets 2010-2022
United Kingdom
US
France
India
Germany
Japan
Russia
China
OK
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Travel review site
Metasearch Direct
bookings
Mobile travel
assistant
Mobile disruptors in Travel COMPETITION BETWEEN TECH AND TRAVEL PLAYERS
The Evolution of business models
OK
Peer-to-peer short-term rentals
Guidebooks & Trips
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Messaging, from communication to booking tool REGIONAL OVERVIEW
OK
Chatbots
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
TRAVEL TRENDS IN PHILIPPINES
LOOKING AHEAD
© Euromonitor International 13
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
OK
6% CAGR 2012-2017 Inbound Arrivals
15% CAGR 2012-2017 Inbound receipts
Asia Pacific Tourism is on the up take
28% APAC share in International trips By 2022
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In most Asian countries, the majority of trips are domestic.. REGIONAL OVERVIEW
2017 number of trips
OK
7% 7% 7% 10% 14% 19% 20% 24%
99% 100% 99% 98% 93% 93% 93% 90% 86% 81% 80% 76%
Outbound vs Domestic
Outbound Domestic
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… and the top destinations for Asian travelers tend to stay within region REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Euromonitor International Travel 2017 edition data
OK
Singapore Hong Kong
China South Korea
Japan Taiwan Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippine India
#1 Malaysia China Hong Kong
Japan US China Malaysia Singapore Malaysia China UAE
#2 Indonesia Macau Thailand China South Korea
Japan Laos Thailand Singapore Singapore Saudi Arabia
#3 Thailand Japan Macau US China Macau Japan Indonesia Saudi Arabia
Hong Kong
Thailand
#4 China Taiwan Japan Philippine Taiwan South Korea
China China Thailand UAE US
#5 Australia Thailand South Korea
Thailand Thailand Hong Kong
South Korea
Japan China South Korea
Singapore
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Changing fortunes for China outbound THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
OK
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Destinations Benefiting from China Arrivals 2012-2017
Hong Kong, China Indonesia Japan
Malaysia Philippines South Korea
Taiwan Thailand Vietnam
Singapore
00
0 t
rip
s
39% JAPAN 2012-2017 CAGR
29% THAILAND 2012-2017 CAGR
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Increased connectivity
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
To edit
MALAYSIA Kuala Terengganu
Langkawi Kota Kinabalu
Penang
PHILIPPINES Cebu Caticlan Davao Kalibo Clark Iloilo Tacloban Bohol Palawan Bacolod
JAPAN Takamatsu Nagoya Ishigaki Fukuoka Osaka Kagoshima Hiroshima
THAILAND Chiang Rai
Chiang Mai Phuket
Krabi TAIWAN Hualien Kaohsiung Taichung
VIETNAM Hanoi Da Nang Nha Trang
INDONESIA Yogyakarta
Bandung Surabaya
Lombok Bali
SOUTH KOREA Busan Jeju
MYANMAR Yangon
LAOS Vientiane
CAMBODIA Phom Penh
Siem Reap
SINGAPORE
2nd tier city Rising destination
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Frugal innovation in lodging rises REGIONAL OVERVIEW
Developed markets include HK, JP, SG, KR, TW; emerging markets include IN, ID, MY, PH, TH, VN; excluded China for better comparison
* Value at fixed 2017 ex rates, current prices
Emerging markets
Mid-market hotels
Budget hotels
Short-term rentals
Developed markets
OK
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
USD million
2012 - 2017 2017-2022
02,0004,0006,0008,000
USD million
2012 - 2017 2017 - 2022
Luxury hotels
Forecast vs Historic Incremental Sales by Lodging Categories
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
TRAVEL TRENDS IN PHILIPPINES
LOOKING AHEAD
6.3% ESTIMATED GDP GROWTH IN 2017
BEST ISLAND IN THE WORLD – PALAWAN ISLAND
NO.1
INCREASE IN NUMBER OF FOREIGN DIVE TOURISTS FROM 2012 TO 2017
60%
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Philippines tourism performance TRAVEL TRENDS IN PHILIPPINES
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mill
ion
tri
ps
Inbound arrivals Domestic trips
9.4% CAGR 2012-2017 Inbound arrivals
14.3% CAGR 2012-2017 Domestic trips
ABOUT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
TRAVEL TRENDS IN PHILIPPINES
LOOKING AHEAD
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China leapfrogs the competition LOOKING AHEAD
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
bill
ion
tri
ps
Top Outbound Source Markets 2017-2022
China
USA
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Canada
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
8.4% CAGR 2017-2022 China Outbound Departures
6% Of the Chinese population Owning a passport according to Forbes 2016
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Winners Departures '000
2022 Ranking
2022
Ranking position change
2017/2022
Philippines 14,306 28 9
India 31,485 11 8
Vietnam 11,901 35 5
Indonesia 16,776 25 3
Malaysia 25,279 18 3
Singapore 27,876 13 3
China 127,776 1 2
Thailand 12,423 31 2
Netherlands 34,019 8 1
More Southeast Asian travellers LOOKING AHEAD
OK
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1,000
1,200
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Inbound arrivals 2018-2022 CAGR
Top 10 source markets in the Philippines continue grow further LOOKING AHEAD
%
8.2% 2017-2022 CAGR TOTAL ARRIVALS
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Strategies for success LOOKING AHEAD
INFRASTRUCTURE & CONNECTIVITY
COMPETITIVENESS & POSITIONING
SUSTAINABLILTY & FUTURE TRAVELLERS
CONTACT DETAILS
Jocelyn Cheung
Analyst, Services & Payments
jocelyn.cheung@euromonitor.com
@Euromonitor
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