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TRENDS AFFECTING SCHOOLS

Challenges and Challenges and opportunities in the quest for excellence and equity

Dr. Dirk Van Damme

OECD – EDU/CERI

Overview

• Trends:– Demography

– Social and cultural changes

Economy and technology– Economy and technology

– Learning societies

• The impact of the crisis

• Conclusions

17 April 2009 2ECIS Conference

Demography

• Falling birth rate…

17 April 2009 ECIS Conference 3

Demography

• …and increasing life expectancy…

Demography

• …lead to ‘top-heavy’ age structure…

Demography

• …and higher ‘old age dependency ratio’.

Demography

• And education?– Fewer children, less schools, …: less resources

for education or higher spending per child?

– Rethinking what education should do to prepare young people for ‘long-life’ societies

– Pressures for earlier entry in the labour market and different life-course arrangements of learning and working

Social and cultural changes

• More people on the move, more diverse populations, …

• …less stable families…

• …with more single-parent families, …

• …changing value systems…

• …and consumption patterns…

• …have important educational consequences– How to cope with increasing cultural diversity:

are schools and teachers well prepared?

– Are home-school relations weakening?

– More pedagogical responsibilities for schools and teachers in socialisation and health?

– Has emphasis on self-expression and less deference for authority also consequences for pedagogy, role of teachers and authority of schools?

Economy and technology

• More global and knowledge-intensive…

• … with rapidly changing technology…

• …but also with more insecure jobs…

• …lead to new demands for education:– Are schools preparing young people for the new

economic environment?

– Are schools themselves innovative enough to support the need for innovation in the economy?

– What kind of new knowledge and skills ( ‘21st C skills’) are needed for the knowledge-intensive economy?

– Are the learning styles of the ‘new millennium learners’ or ‘digital natives’ changing?

Learning societies• An ‘educational revolution’ has taken place…

Learning societies• …and educational investment is still increasing…

Learning societies• …but there still is room for educational growth…

Learning societies• …and tertiary level participation will continue to rise

Scenario 1 = Status-quo Scenario 2 = Trend

Learning societies• But outcomes are uneven between countries…

Learning societies• …but even so within countries, especially for

lower-class and immigrant pupils…

Learning societies• …affecting also their opportunities in higher

education…

Learning societies• …especially in countries where inequalities between

schools (c.q. sorting and selecting) are high.

Learning societies• But there is no trade-off between excellence and

equity: several countries succeed in achieving both– E.g. Finland, Canada, Japan, Korea

By serving differentiated student populations well– By serving differentiated student populations well

– By avoiding early tracking and high differentiation of school choice

Learning societies• Will education remain the engine of social

mobility and meritocracy?– Need to offer equal opportunities to all talents

– From ‘pedagogy of failure’ to ‘pedagogy of success’: selection may have been appropriate in educationalselection may have been appropriate in educational systems aimed at producing relatively small elites, but is much less in societies that need to develop all talents

Learning societies• Need to value diversified talents

– Social selection, upward social mobility, meritocratic functions all value mostly cognitive talents

– Creative, imaginative, innovative elements of education systems often preserved for elitist parts ofeducation systems often preserved for elitist parts of system

– Parents’ expectations often value the more traditional functions and approaches of schooling

– The scientifically enquiring mind is not very different from the creative or imaginative mind

Learning societies• Women are overtaking men in upper secondary

and higher education attainment.

Learning societies• And there are more international students.

Learning societies• Huge investments in ICT in schools…

Broadband in primary and secondary schools of OECD countries, 2006 or latest available year

3040506070

Greece

PolandCze

epublic

Germany

Irelan

dAustr

ia Italy

Portuga

lBelgiumFrance

United K ingdo

mHungary

Luxembourg

SpainSwedenNorw

ayFinlan

dDenmark

Netherlands

US (2005

Learning societies• … but schools/teachers are rather slow to innovate

Teachers and pupils in compulsory education who have not used a computer in the classroom in the past 12 months (2006) in EU countries

DK UK NL NO SE AT FI DE CZ IE IS MT IT SK BE LU ES SI CY FR PT PL EE LT HU LV EL

Teachers

Pupils

The impact of the crisis

• Financial/Budgetary impact:– Need for governments to cut low-priority

expenses• Because of higher debt and high-priority spending

– But at the same time more students in schools• Be it not in fee-paying schools• Lower budgets per student?

– And educational institutions in financial difficulties

• Due to loss of fees, endowment income, fundraising

• Impact on educational demand– ECEC may be affected by unemployment and

lower labour market participation of women– Extended stay in schools of young people not

entering labour market– Shift from private to public schools– Increased enrolment in higher education

(possibly leading to over-schooling)• But enrolment and drop-out could also be affected

by decreasing part-time jobs and weakening student support systems

• Impact on educational demand– VET may be particularly affected

• Need to tune qualifications to labour market needs

• VET as alternative to unemploymentVET as alternative to unemployment

– Higher demand for adult education in view of re-skilling of the labour force

• Impact on educational supply– Teacher shortage will decrease and quantity

and quality of teacher training recruitment will improvep

– Educational infrastructure will benefit from stimulus packages

• Opportunity to innovate learning environments

– Less apprenticeships and school-work interactions may lead to less practical training

• Educational concerns in policy responses– Stimulus packages should include

investments in education

– Education is vital for long-term andEducation is vital for long term and sustainable economic recovery

– Maintaining equity and protecting the most vulnerable is crucial

– Educational innovation is necessary for economic and social innovation

Conclusion

• What can we learn from the trends?– The ‘educational revolution’ is not finished– New economic, social and cultural demands– Schools and teachers have an even greater g

role to play than before– But their task is becoming increasingly

complex and difficult– And at the same time schools are asked to

become more innovative: ‘more of the same’ will not suffice

Conclusion

• Which road to follow?– Despite the temptation for mediocrity and

‘laisser-faire’, only educational excellence can help societies to survive

– But excellence should not be confined to the formation of elites: all talents need to be mobilised

– Equity and excellence are no antagonisms– More educational innovation is needed to

counter all challenges

Resources

• Education Today: the OECD Perspective, 2009

• Trends Shaping Education, 2008 (also as webbook)

• Demand-Sensitive Education? Evidence and Issues, 2006

• Think Scenarios, Rethink Education, 2006

• Personalising Education 2006• Personalising Education, 2006

• Networks of Innovation: towards new models for managing schools and systems, 2003

• What Schools for the Future? 2001

• Learning to Change: ICT in Schools, 2001

• Learning to Bridge the Digital Divide, 2000

• Innovating Schools, 1999.

Trends Shaping Education –2008 Edition

d i iLes grandes mutations qui transforment l’éducation –Édition 2008

www oecd org/edu/ceri

THANK YOU !

www.oecd.org/edu/ceri

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