TRENDS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR AGRICULTURAL … · Average Engine Power. Average Machine Weight....

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28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of BolognaBologna, November 10-11, 2018

TRENDS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIESFOR AGRICULTURAL MACHINERY

28th Members’ Meeting of the Club of Bologna

New Technologies and Services for agricultural Machinery:Challenges and Limits

10-11 November 2018Bologna, Italy

Benno Pichlmaier – benno.pichlmaier@agcocorp.com

HISTORYAGRICULTURAL REVOLUTIONS

driverlayer.com © Hulton-Deutsch Collection/CORBIS

AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTIONS1. „Neolithic“ Agricultural Revolution: 10.000 BCDomestication of plants and animals.

2. „British“ Agricultural Revolution: 17th to 19th CenturyCrop Rotation, national free Markets, Infrastructure, Mechanisation.

3. „Green“ Agricultural Revolution: 1950s to 1960sBreeding (High yield Varieties), chemical Fertilizers, Irrigation.

4. „Digital “ Agricultural Revolution: 2010s to …Automation, Data driven Optimization, Connected Systems.

There is no common Definition on Agricultural Revolutionsand thus there are different Perspectives and Opinions to it.

Homo Sapiens300.000 Years ago

A BIT OF TIMELINE PERSPECTIVE…

Earth5 Mrd Years ago Today

2. Ag Revolution

3. Ag Revolution

4. Ag Revolution ?

1. Agricultural Revolution12.000 Years ago

SITUATIONPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH

Source: legendary-fish.com

5 MAJOR INPUT FACTORS

BREEDING

MECHANSATIONIRRIGATION

FERTILIZING

PLANTPROTECTION

Source: Renius K.T., Farm machinery to feed the world. Open Meeting of Club of Bologna, September 21st, 2015.

MECHANISATIONLARGER EQUIPMENT DELIVERS MORE PRODUCTIVITY AT LOWER COST

€/ha

0 labour cost

capital cost

fuel cost

repair cost

2.0 m67 kW

2,5 m83 kW

3,0 m102 kW

4,5 m120 kW

7,0 m200 kW

10 m235 kW

Source (modified): De Witte Th. et al, New plant production systems with autonomous agricultural machinery. Final project report. Internet www.orgprints.org/32437/ October 2018.

CHALLENGESSUSTAINABLE GROWTH

Source: bloomberg.com

CHEATING MALTHUS

SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABLE PRODUCTIVITY IS THE FUNDMENTAL OBJECTIVE

Source: Charles Merfield, The Future of Farming, ASABE Resource Magazin, 2012

The Average Life of a Speciesis 1.000.000 years. We need to plan for another 800.000 years.

Taking one Step at a Timethese steps could be one millennium: 1000 years.

Our current Farming Practicesare by no means sustainable to this scale.

LIMITSWAY TO GO?

Source: districtspeed.com

Sources: UN, VDMA, KBA, own calculations12345678

Mrd, t10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

World Population

153045607590105120kW150

Average Engine Power

Average Machine Weight

Large Tractor in 2030: 800 Horsepower and 33 tons ?Combine Harvester in 2030 900 Horsepower and 50 tons ?

MACHINERY GROWTH

ONE CONSEQUENCE…PERFORMANCE INCREASE BY EQUIPMENT GROWTH IS LIMITED

dpi.nsw.gov.aumotherearthnews.com

Crop health, yield and water management issues are caused by soil compaction.Not only contact pressure but as well footprint size have a relevant impact.

PARADIGM SHIFTADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES

THE NEXT FOSBURY FLOP„CREATE THE FUTURE, FORGET THE PAST, MANAGE THE PRESENT“ VIJAY GOVINDARAJAN

PARADIGM SHIFT

Machinery Agronomy

Magnitude Multitude

Complexity Symplicity

ENABLING TECHNOLOGIESADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES

CONNECTIVITY & DIGITALIZATION

CONNECTIVITY & DIGITALIZATIONThreats to Precision Agriculture “Precision agriculture employs a variety of embedded and connected technologies that rely on remote sensing, global positioning systems, and communication systems to generate big data, data analytics, and machine learning. A consequence of this rapidly advancing digital revolution is the increased exposure to cyber and other vulnerabilities to the agricultural sector.”

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2018%20AEP_Threats_to_Precision_Agriculture.pdf

AUTOMATION & AUTONOMY

1 TRANSPARENCYInformation Visualization

Information will be displayed to the operator.Operator needs to decide, manually adjust settings.

4 AUTONOMYIntegrated Intelligence X System can perform safely without operator.

Remote control room and strategic guidance possible.

2 ASSISTANCEOptimization Advice

Advice will be provided to the operator.Operator needs to approve, manually adjust settings.

3 AUTOMATIONSmart self Adjustment

Operator has safety responsibility.Decisions are provided, settings automatically adjusted.

AUTOMATION & AUTONOMYEQUIPMENT EVOLUTION

ELECTRIFICATION & FUTURE FUELSWHAT OPTIONS DO WE HAVE?

ELECTRIFICATION & FUTURE FUELSBATTERY ELECTRIC TRACTOR

ELECTRIFICATION & FUTURE FUELSRENEWABLE DIESEL

€/ha

capital cost

fuel cost

repair cost

2.0 m67 kW

2,5 m83 kW

3,0 m102 kW

4,5 m120 kW

7,0 m200 kW

10 m235 kW

ENABLING CHANGEAUTOMATE TASKS, CONNECT MACHINES, ELECTRIFY DRIVELINES

Source (modified): De Witte Th. et al, New plant production systems with autonomous agricultural machinery. Final project report. Internet www.orgprints.org/32437/ October 2018.

OUTLOOKOPPORTUNTIES FOR THE FUTURE

CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT AG

Quelle: http://agrown.net

LessWater

LessFertilizer

X 10Yield per

ROBOT SWARMS

MACHINE LEARNING

SUMMARYKEY MESSAGES

KEY MESSAGES• Sustainable Productivity is the fundamental Objective for Farming.

Support fresh Thinking for a truly cirular agricultural Economy.

• Further Growth of Machinery will be limited. Evaluate Paradigm Shifts.Machinery Agronomy, Magnitude Multitude, Complexity Simplicity.

• Technology Trends provide Answers and we need to manage Risks. Connectivity & Digitalization

Connected small machines for productivity growth. Food Production dependend on Network.

Automation & AutonomySmaller Machines and Plant Level Precision. Labor Cost Focus is not enough.

Electrification & Futur FuelsSimplified, precise Drives, Emission Reduction. Challenges: Raw Materials, Cost, Sustainability.

• There are looming Opportunities and Disruptions.Controlled Environment Agriculture, Robots and Swarms, Artificial Intelligence.

THANK YOU.QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME

TRENDS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR AGRICULTURAL … · Average Engine Power. Average Machine Weight....

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