UAWJune 30-July 4, 2008Tokyo, Japan

Anthropogenic Heat Release

and Global Climate Change

Shi Guang-Yu1, Tan Sai-Chun1, Shen Yan-Bo2, Wang Biao1, Wang Bin1, Li Li-Juan1

1. LASG/IAP/CAS2. NCC/CMA

Contents Background

Model Results

Preliminary Conclusions

Future work

Global Warming looks like ‘True’(IPCC AR4 2007)

Since the mid-20th century, it is attributed to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHGs concentrations (IPCC AR4 2007)

Two problems haven’t been or have been incompletely included in the current climate models

Anthropogenic Heat Release (AHR)

Climate － Chemistry Feedback

18 Types of Energies8 Categories: Fossil

Fuels 、 Nuclear 、 Solar 、 Biomass 、 Hydropower 、 Wind 、Geothermal and Oceanic

• COAL (INCLUDING LIGNITE)• CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS• OIL SHALE• NATURAL BITUMEN AND EXTRA-HEAVY OIL• NATURAL GAS• Part I: URANIUM• Part II: NUCLEAR• HYDROPOWER• PEAT• WOOD (INCLUDING CHARCOAL)• BIOMASS (OTHER THAN WOOD)• SOLAR ENERGY• GEOTHERMAL ENERGY• WIND ENERGY• TIDAL ENERGY• WAVE ENERGY• OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION• MARINE CURRENT ENERGY

Nature of Energy Use1. Inner cycle of the earth system

Wind, tidal energy et al.

2.Out of the earth system ----- add forcingJohn Houghton, Global warming, 1997: Most of the energy we use can

be traced back to the sun.Fossil fuels: release the energy stored away over

millions of years in the pastSolar energy use: capture the solar energy that should

be reflected back to spaceNuclear energy: release the chemic energy from

radioactive elements which were present in the Earth when it was formed.

…

The ultimate consequence of the energy use by human is the release of heat into the earth-atmosphere system

Anthropogenic Direct Heat

Release（ Thermal Pollution ）

Anthropogenic Heat Release (IPCC AR4 2007)

A Simple Calculation for 2004

• Annual energy use world wide

10,224.4 Mtoe (million tons of oil equivalent) in 2004• conversion factor: 1 toe = 42 GJ= 10 034 Mcal

• equivalent to 10224.4×106×42×109=4.29×1020 J• global energy consumption per sec:

4.29×1020/(365×86400)=1.36×1013 W• surface area Earth: 5.11×1014 m2

• 1.36×1013 / 5.11×1014 =0.027 W/m2 of global “thermal pollution”.

A simple calculation for regions （ 2004）

• China ~12% of global energy consume ： 0.027×0.12×5.11e1014/(9.6e1012)≈ 0.17 W/m2

• U.S. ~24% of global energy consume ： 0.027×0.24×5.11e1014/(9.2e1012)≈ 0.36 W/m2

• Japan ~5% of global energy consume :

0.027×0.05×5.11e1014/ (3.778e1011)≈ 1.83 W/m2

• Korea ~2% of global energy consume :

0.027×0.02×5.11e1014/ (0.99237e1011)≈ 2.78 W/m2

the best estimate of anthropogenic RF (1.6 W/m2)

“thermal pollution” should not be neglected in climate modeling for highly populated areas.

Temperature rise cannot be calculated by application of Stefan-Boltzmann law.

Contents Background

Model Results

Preliminary Conclusions

Future work

Experiment IntroductionModelGrid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)

developed by Wang et al (2004) and improved by Li (2007)

Resolution: 2.8*2.8 L26

Top of model: 2.194 hPa

The method of adding AHR Sensible heat flux (SHF) Longwave Radition (LW)

Integral time: 1979-1988 10 years

0.05oC

Control: not add AHR Experiment: Add 0.027 W/m2 AHR as forced Sensible Heat Flux Observation: NCEP Integral time: 1979-1985

How about air temperature we can expected if we added

AHR to the model ??

NCEP

Experiment

Control

Added Sensible Heat Flux

experiment-control

Experiment - Control

Experiment - NCEP

Control - NCEP

Experiment - Control

Experiment - NCEP

Control - NCEP

• If the AHR is 100 times larger than that in 2004, what will happened for temperature???

• 2.7 W/m2

observation

experiment

control

NCEP

Experiment

Control

Added Sensible Heat Flux

experiment-control

experiment-NCEP

Control-NCEP

Error

Experiment - Control

Experiment - NCEP

Control - NCEP

Experiment - Control

Experiment - NCEP

Control - NCEP

Preliminary Conclusions• Global mean temperature was improved by 0.05 oC• Radiative balance at top of model and surface was

better than control• Where the larger AHR added, the larger increase in

air temperature

Seem like that

It’s reasonable to take AHR into account in climate model

&

Air temperature will go to upward with added AHR

Future Works

Model for 2050, 2100,…??

How much temperature will rise once adding AHR??

How much contribution of AHR to the climate ???

A simple and cursory calculation（ After 2050）

• Basic supposition:– American GDP is 3 times larger than in 2004; and energy

consumption is 3 times larger than in 2004– The Global population :10 Billion– Energy consume per person is equal to Americans

• RF of Heat Release in Regions:– U.S. ： 0.36x3=1.08 W/m2

– China ： 1.49X3=4.47 W/m2; larger than the RF caused by doubling CO2 3.75!

– Due to the imbalance of economy, RF in east and south of China up to 10 W/m2 !!!

• Global ： 0.027*10*3 　 = 　0.81W/m2 ， can be compared with the best estimate of anthropogenic RF(1.6 W/m2)

Welcome any suggestions

Thank you!

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SHF 2W/m027.0