Post on 19-Jul-2016
transcript
The Missing Metric Economics and the
Counterintuitive Nature of Planning
U
The definition of an Expert:
Someone from far away with
slides
The definition of an Expert:
Someone from far away with
Power Point
The new definition of an Expert:
I fail the expert test
Henry Cisneros addressing the Congress for the New Urbanism
I’m a consultant in planning and
strategic marketing
Upper Rock District: Existing Conditions
Upper Rock District: Build out per previous entitlements ($3.5 million)
Upper Rock District: Build out per newly granted entitlements ($84 million)
Rockville, MD: Upper Rock
Rockville, MD: Upper Rock
Rockville, MD: Upper Rock
Rockville, MD: Upper Rock
Commissioned by JBG Companies; Duany Plater-Zyberk & Company
Oceanside, CA
I’ve also worked as a planner around the United States
Oceanside, CA Sarasota, FL
I’ve also worked as a planner around the United States
Oceanside, CA Arlington, VA
I’ve also worked as a planner around the United States
Sarasota, FL
Any given Tuesday… U
Any given Tuesday… U
Any given Tuesday… U
Any given Tuesday… U
Any given Tuesday… U
Any given Tuesday… U
Quality of life vs. development impacts
U
Quality of life vs. development impacts
U
Issues related to revenue never came up
U
A time bomb under the street
A time bomb under the street
Impact fees only cover capital costs
New Roadway Facilities
University Pkwy & N. University Pkwy & N. Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Creek Boulevard IntersectionCreek Boulevard Intersection
University ParkwayUniversity Parkway
DeSoto RoadDeSoto Road
Hon
ore
Ave
nue
Hon
ore
Ave
nue
Honore Avenue & DeSoto Honore Avenue & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection
II--7575
N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection
N. Cattlemen Road (from University N. Cattlemen Road (from University Pkwy to DeSoto Road)Pkwy to DeSoto Road)
N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto Road to Richardson Road)Road to Richardson Road)
DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue to N. Cattlemen Road)to N. Cattlemen Road)
N. C
attle
men
Roa
dN
. Cat
tlem
en R
oad
Total Total Estimated CostEstimated Cost
$38,050,000$38,050,000Right of Way $5,000,000Right of Way $5,000,000
Construction $33,5000,000Construction $33,5000,000
Another problem with impact fees...
P
New Roadway Facilities
University Pkwy & N. University Pkwy & N. Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Cattlemen Rd. / Cooper Creek Boulevard IntersectionCreek Boulevard Intersection
University ParkwayUniversity Parkway
DeSoto RoadDeSoto Road
Hon
ore
Ave
nue
Hon
ore
Ave
nue
Honore Avenue & DeSoto Honore Avenue & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection
II--7575
N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road & DeSoto Road IntersectionRoad Intersection
N. Cattlemen Road (from University N. Cattlemen Road (from University Pkwy to DeSoto Road)Pkwy to DeSoto Road)
N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto N. Cattlemen Road (from DeSoto Road to Richardson Road)Road to Richardson Road)
DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue DeSoto Road (from Honore Avenue to N. Cattlemen Road)to N. Cattlemen Road)
N. C
attle
men
Roa
dN
. Cat
tlem
en R
oad
Total Total Estimated CostEstimated Cost
$38,050,000$38,050,000Right of Way $5,000,000Right of Way $5,000,000
Construction $33,5000,000Construction $33,5000,000
Approved Platted Residential Lots
1222
571
104 88
237
00
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
# of
App
rove
d Lo
ts
*Data through 11/1/10
So let’s talk about Sarasota County.
Approved Platted Residential Lots
1222
571
104 88
237
00
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011
# of
App
rove
d Lo
ts
*Data through 11/1/10
We didn’t know what was paying the bills
P
In 2008 the Sarasota County manager asked staff to look at where our property taxes were coming from…
In 2008 the Sarasota County manager asked staff to look at where our property taxes were coming from…
In 2008 the Sarasota County manager asked staff to look at where our property taxes were coming from…
1923
a 4:1 ratio!
1926
2006
These two malls on 55 acres pay $1,145,028
That’s $350,000 less than…
That’s $350,000 less than… …this one building on 2/3 of an acre
It takes 145 acres of Walmart to equal the revenue earned by 1350 Main Street
It takes 145 acres of Walmart to equal the revenue earned by 1350 Main Street Again, it occupies just 2/3 of an acre
What about Sales Tax?
1350 Main St: $1+ million generated
on .67 acres
1350 Main St: $1+ million generated
on .67 acres
1350 Main St: $1+ million generated
on .67 acres
Sarasota’s downtown today—Mostly 1-2 story buildings
St. Petersburg; the boom improved its
downtown
So what about the cost side of the
equation? P
Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P
Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P
Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P
Caveat: This is less about tall buildings than having the market to fill them. P
Is this a national pattern?
P
Now that we understand our tax base today, how might we improve it going forward?
In many regions, there are Smart Growth projects that will do well…
In many regions, there are Smart Growth projects that will do well…
We need a method of regulation that addresses the places that people don’t care
deeply about, and our current fiscal challenges.
Could we mandate a maximum
pay back period? The number of years required to
pay back the municipality’s infrastructure investment
FIQ=Fiscal Impact Quotient
The number of years required to pay back the municipality’s infrastructure investment
FIQ=Fiscal Impact Quotient
The number of years required to pay back the municipality’s infrastructure investment
FIQ=Fiscal Impact Quotient
County A FIQ: 10 years County B FIQ: 5 years County C FIQ: 20 years
It’s a new “metric”
Here’s how it might be used…