Norman Economic

Development Coalition

US and Oklahoma Economic

Outlook Presentation

April 2015

NEDC PresentationApril 2015 Agenda

• Status of the US Economy– Storyline Retrospective

– Major Indicators

• Monetary and Fiscal Policy– Fed’s Balance Sheet

– Money Supply Growth

• Special Topics

– Status of the Oklahoma Economy• Employment Trends—State and Regional

• Gross State Tax Collections

– Price of Crude Oil & Employment Implications

– New Generation Economic Development

Storyline and Continuing

Saga

19th Year and Counting

First Chapters of Story

Irrational Exuberance

Stock Market Bubble/Bust

Floods of Liquidity Promoting

Speculation and Low Rates

Rise of the Housing Bubble

Recession of 2001

Next Chapters of StorySubprime Mortgage Crisis

Financial Contagion

Recession of 2007-2008

Fiscal & Monetary Stimulus

Housing Market Collapse

Muted Economic Recovery

The Continuing 19-Year SagaCredit Market Deleveraging

Sovereign Debt Crises

Currency Devaluations

Global Political Discord

Quantitative Easing Forever

Demographic and Other Cliffs

Continuing Slow Growth

Status of the National

Economic Recovery“Nobody can predict how long governments

can get away with fake growth, fake money,

fake financial stability, fake jobs, fake inflation

numbers and fake income growth.”

Paul Singer, Eliott Management, $8.6B AUM

Real Annualized GDP Growth

Recent Estimates place Q1 2013 at a 1.6% gain

Industrial Production

U.S. Retail Sales

Change in Payroll Jobs per Month

Year-over-Year Change in U.S.

Non-Ag Employment

Unemployment Rate

Part-Time Employment for Economic

Reasons

Housing Starts

Residential Investment as Percent of GDP

Recent Estimates place Q1 2013 at a 1.6% gain

Institute for Supply Management PMI

Case-Shiller Housing Price Indices

Recent Estimates place Q1 2013 at a 1.6% gain

U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Monetary and Fiscal

Policy

Federal largesse gone wild?

Fed’s Magical Balance Sheet

U.S. Treasury securities 2,461.6 Reserve balances with F.R. Banks 2,479.3

Federal agency debt securities 38.7 Currency in circulation 1,317.4

Mortgage-backed securities 1,729.8 Reverse repurchase agreements 251.5

Credit loans 208.1 Treasury cash holdings 0.2

Other loans 0.1 Other deposits with F.R. Banks 418.1

Other Federal Reserve assets 80.2 Other liabilities and capital 63.1

Gold stock 11.0

Total 4,529.6 Total 4,529.6

Fed's Balance Sheet November 26, 2014 ($billions)

Fed’s Magical Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve’s Asset Holdings

US Money Supply Growth Rates

Stock Market and Member Bank Reserves

Bank Reserve Balances Deposited at the Fed

U.S. Government Budget Balances

US Inflation by Various Measures

Status of the Oklahoma

Economy

OKC, Tulsa, BOS Employment

Trends

US and Oklahoma Employment Growth

Comparative State Unemployment Rates

Oklahoma Gross Tax

Collections

Oklahoma Gross Tax

Collection Cumulative Shares

Price of Oil

Houston, we have a problem!

WTI Historic

WTI: What Happened in the 1980’s

Historic U.S. Oil Production

Gains since 2005

US +4.052 MBPD, 79% gain

TX +2.385, or 222% gain

ND +1.087, or 1055% gain

OK +0.189, 110% gain

US Historic Rig Count

Oil v. Natural Gas Rig Count

Oil Prices and Rig Counts

OK Direct Mining Sector Employment

OK Regional Direct Mining Sector

Employment

New Generation Economic

Development• Evolution with Focus on

– Enhancing Existing Assets and Capabilities

– Innovation and Entrepreneurship

– Talent Creation

– Business Formation

– Quality of Life Placemaking

– Business Recruitment and Retention

– Institutional Coordination and Action

Institutional Coordination and

Action• Expansive Range of Players

– State and local government

– City, Chambers of Commerce and regional

economic development leadership and staff

– Universities

– Business leaders and business groups

– Entrepreneurs

– Nonprofit executives

The University’s Roles• Endowment of skills and abilities for the future

workforce and fostering of new talent

• Development of leaders in numerous domains

• Expansion of business insights

• Provision of policy guidance: analysis, formation

and implementation

• Invention, innovation and product development

• Coordination with economic development entities

• Advancement of quality of life and placemaking

University and Price College

Initiatives• Top-Down Commitment of University Leadership

• New Entrepreneurship Division

• Center for Creation of Economic Wealth

• Office of Technology Development

• Center for Economic and Management Research

• Director of Public/Private Partnerships

• Senior Associate Dean for Economic Development/Impact

• University Research Campus Collaboration/Expansion

• Innovation Hub—Compelling Economic Development

through Publicly Available Facilities and Programs

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• The Innovation Hub advances interdisciplinary collaboration through

physical spaces, cutting-edge tools and technology, programs, and

professionals.

• Pursuits:

• Self-initiated learning environment to foster creativity and innovation

• New business ventures

• Convenient and public access to tools, spaces, and mentors

• Intellectual collisions spanning multiple disciplines

• Experiential & interdisciplinary learning environments to prepare our

students for the world of tomorrow

• The Innovation Hub will include a digital fabrication lab for technological

experimentation, hardware development, and idea prototyping to create

a culture of collaboration and creation among OU students, faculty, staff,

and community.

Innovation Hub Purpose and Features

Visualization Zone

270’ projection on 3

walls for high-def data

visualization, big data

decision theatre,

comparative social

computing, etc.

Fab Lab Zone

Workshop for digital

fabrication with computer

controlled equipment (3D

printers, CNC laser cutters/

routers/ milling machine,

etc.)

Experiential

Programs and

Colleges Zone

CCEW/ joint programs

(Agile product design,

Software Business

Accelerator, Social

Entrepreneurship)

Economic

Development

Zone

Co-working space,

business incubator/

accelerator,

support services

Research

Support Zone

Library services:

informatics, data

management and

other research

support

Collaboration

Zone

Highly flexible

space with

moveable white

board walls and a

coffee shop/

kitchen

The Innovation Hub

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The Innovation Hub

That’s all, folks

But, please take a few minutes to

explore some of the iHub

technologies in our mobile facility