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Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 1vrije Universiteit amsterdam
(Support for)Decision-making
Marjan van HerwijnenInstituut voor Milieuvraagstukken
Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 2vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 3vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Program
Decision-making Planning processes:
– meadows of Rijnwaarden – water management in IJsselmeer
Evaluation and valuation: – Hondsbossche seawall
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 4vrije Universiteit amsterdam
What can go wrong?
No decision Wrong decision Wrong decision strategy
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 5vrije Universiteit amsterdam
No decision
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 6vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Wrong decision
Ra
Rt-Ra
Rt
Assume a rope around the earth which is 10 meter longer than the circumference of the earth.
Can a mouse walk under it?
2Ra +10 = 2Rt
Rt = Ra + 10/2Rt-Ra = 10/2 1.6 m
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 7vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Solution
Height= 1/8 * 10 meter= 1.25 meter
The height is independent of the radius!
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 8vrije Universiteit amsterdam
1. House with bar (HB)2. House without bar (H)3. No house (NH)
1. Scrooge2. Drunkard3. Health freak
Scrooge NH > H > HB
Drunkard HB > NH > H
Health freak H > NH > HB^^
^^
^^
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 9vrije Universiteit amsterdam
First x x x
Second xx x
Third x xx
No house House House with bar
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 10vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 11vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 12vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Step by step or simultaneous Alternatives
1. Kamper island storage above ground level2. Lake Ketel storage under water level3. Lake Ketel storage above water level
Criteria1. Costs2. Landscape3. Nuisance
Performance
Costs Kamper island > LK under > LK above waterLandscape LK under > Kamper island > LK Above waterNuisance LK above > Kamper island > LK under water
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 13vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Kamper island Lake Ketel Lake Ketelunder water above water
first x x x
second xx x
third x xx
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 14vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 15vrije Universiteit amsterdam
ill-structured problems multiple
objectives alternatives actors
reduce complexity to manageable proportions facts (objectivity) and values (subjectivity) uncertainty need for transparency
Characteristics of problems
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 16vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Information processing (I)
information
Input Output
decisionprocedure
decision
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 17vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Information processing (II)
Input Output
decisionprocedure
decision
information
persons
organisation
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 18vrije Universiteit amsterdam
SustainabilityA-TestAdvanced Techniques for Evaluation of Sustainability Assessment Tools
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 19vrije Universiteit amsterdam
SustainabilityA-Test: Overview
EU project (DG research) in 6th Framework; Start: March 2004 End: August 2006 Budget: 1.3 million euro 18 European project partners Three phases:
– Design phase;– Case study on agriculture and land use;– Integration and synthesis
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 20vrije Universiteit amsterdam
SustainabilityA-Test: goals Overall goal is:
– to give support to the definition and implementation of the EU Sustainable Development Strategy;
This will be done by: – recognizing the common and emerging tools that can be used
to measure or assess sustainable development;– examining the theoretical and conceptual basis of the tools;– developing an evaluation framework that includes aspects for:
• various stages of policy and• sustainable development
– applying the evaluation framework consistent and peer-reviewed.
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 21vrije Universiteit amsterdam
The webbook: home page
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 22vrije Universiteit amsterdam
The webbook: Overview
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 23vrije Universiteit amsterdam
The webbook: Book of References
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 24vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Webbook can be found on:– www.SustainabilityA-Test.net
Final conference:– Tuesday June 20, 2006
Royal AcademyBrussels, Belgium
Dissemination
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 25vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Het gebruik van ICT instrumenten ter ondersteuning van de ruimtelijke planvorming
Instituut voor MilieuvraagstukkenVrije Universiteit De Boelelaan 11151081 HV Amsterdamhttp://www.vu.nl/ivm
M.van Herwijnen, M,S,G, Horrevoets, R.Janssen en A.Teunissen
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 26vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Planning processes
meadows of Rijnwaarden water management in IJsselmeer
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 27vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 28vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 29vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 30vrije Universiteit amsterdam
search screen
design
recognition
judgementevaluation/choice
negotationevaluation/choice
diagnose
analysis/evaluation
autorisation
identification development selection
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 31vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Rijnwaarden: Screening
Goal: Screening the band width
By means of: Design by landscape architects of three extreme
scenario’s Supported by GIS
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 32vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Rijnwaarden: Vision making
Goal: Formulating a compromise alternative; the draft
design
By means of: Presentation of the extreme alternatives Input of stakeholders through idea-evenings Supported by photographs, maps, oral explanation, a
puzzle and discussion
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 33vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Rijnwaarden: Design
Goal: Expanding the draft design to an integral
design
By means of: Presentation evenings Interaction between stakeholders and
landscape architects
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 34vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Rijnwaarden: screening
0.
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1. participatie
2. draagvlak
3. aanpasbaarheid
4. legitimiteit
5. efficiency
6. doelgericht
7. verantwoording
8. datagebaseerd
1.001.005.00
2.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
7.00
Consensusperspectief
Politiek perspectief
Ratioperspectief
Empirisch perspectief
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 35vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Rijnwaarden: vision making
0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
10. 1. participatie
2. draagvlak
3. aanpasbaarheid
4. legitimiteit
5. efficiency
6. doelgericht
7. verantwoording
8. datagebaseerd 8.00
7.00
5.00
5.00 3.00 3.00
3.00
3.00
Empirisch perspectief Consensusperspectief
Politiek perspectief Ratioperspectief
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 36vrije Universiteit amsterdam
ICT instruments for Rijnwaarden
Smartmap can replace the drawings on flap-overs
Spatial evaluation methods can support the evaluation of the extreme alternatives and help translate them to draft design.
The map presentations are already very suitable to communicate the information to the stakeholders.
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 37vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Planning processes
meadows of Rijnwaarden water management in IJsselmeer
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 38vrije Universiteit amsterdam
zoek screen
ontwerp
erkenning
beoordelingevaluatie/keuze
onderhandelingevaluatie/keuze
diagnose
analyse/evaluatie
autorisatie
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 39vrije Universiteit amsterdam
IJsselmeer: recognition phase
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1. participatie
2. draagvlak
3. aanpasbaarheid
4. legitimiteit
5. efficiency
6. doelgericht
7. verantwoording
8. datagebaseerd
5.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
8.00
8.00
9.00
Consensusperspectief
Politiek perspectief
Ratioperspectief
Empirisch perspectief
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 40vrije Universiteit amsterdam
IJsselmeer: generating alternatives
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1. participatie
2. draagvlak
3. aanpasbaarheid
4. legitimiteit
5. efficiency
6. doelgericht
7. verantwoording
8. datagebaseerd9.00
8.00
6.00
7.00
3.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
Consensusperspetief
Politiek perspectiefRatioperspectief
Empirisch perspectief
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 41vrije Universiteit amsterdam
IJsselmeer: evaluation/prioritize
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1. participatie
2. draagvlak
3. aanpasbaarheid
4. legitimiteit
5. efficiency
6. doelgericht
7. verantwoording
8. datagebaseerd
5.00
5.00
7.00
7.005.00
5.00
2.00
2.00
Consensusperspectief
Politiek perspectief
Ratioperspectief
Empirisch perspectief
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 42vrije Universiteit amsterdam
The use of WINBOS output
The results of WINBOS have played a minor role in the evaluation and the design rounds. Part of this is due to the delayed availability of WINBOS in the various phases.
Limiting factor was not so much the reliability of the model, which was judged very highly, but the way the information was offered.
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 43vrije Universiteit amsterdam
LegendaZeer diep water Diep water met waterplanten Diep water zonder waterplantenMatig diep water met waterplanten Matig diep water zonder waterplanten Ondiep water met waterplanten Ondiep water zonder waterplanten Ondiep water met helofyten Laag gelegen bos Laag gelegen grasland Laag gelegen kaal Laag gelegen ruigte Hoog gelegen bos Hoog gelegen grasland Hoog gelegen kaal Hoog gelegen ruigte
N
0 500 1000 Meters
Deep water with water plantsDeep water without water plantsModerately deep water with water plantsModerately deep water without water plantsShallow water with water plants
Shallow water with helophytesShallow water without water plants
Very deep water
Low situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub
Ecotopes
Mosaic map Dominant map
1 1
2 2
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 44vrije Universiteit amsterdam
0%11 %22 %33 %44 %56 %67 %78 %89 %100 %
011 %22 %33 %44 %56 %67 %78 %89 %100 %
0 %11 %22 %33 %44 %56 %67 %78 %89 %100 %
N N N
0 500 1000 Meters 0 500 1000 Meters0 500 1000 Meters
Probability Probability Probability
Low situated grassland Low situated shrubLow situated forest
2
1
2
1
2
1
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 45vrije Universiteit amsterdam
L e g e n d aW a t e r m e t w a t e r p l .W a t e r z o n d e r w a t e r p l .L a a g g e l e g e n b o s L a a g g e l e g e n g r a s l .L a a g g e l e g e n k a a l L a a g g e l e g e n r u ig t e H o o g g e le g e n b o s H o o g g e le g e n g r a s l .H o o g g e le g e n k a a l H o o g g e le g e n r u i g t e
0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 M e t e r s
N
EcotopesWater with water plantsWater without water plantsLow situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub
Water directly transportedWater stored horizontallyWater stored vertically
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 46vrije Universiteit amsterdam
E c o t o p e nZ e e r d ie p w a t e r D i e p w a t e r m e t w p l D i e p w a t e r - w p lM a t i g d i e p w t r + w p l M a t i g d i e p w t r - w p lO n d ie p w a t e r + w p lO n d ie p w a t e r - w p lO n d ie p w t r + h e l o f y t e n L a a g g e le g e n b o s L a a g g e le g e n g r a s la n d L a a g g e le g e n k a a l L a a g g e le g e n r u ig t e H o o g g e l e g e n b o s H o o g g e l e g e n g r a s la n d H o o g g e l e g e n k a a l H o o g g e l e g e n r u i g t e
N NN0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 M e t e r s
N
Water stored vertically Water stored horizontally Water directly transported
Deep water with wp.Deep water without wp.Moderately deep w. with wp.Moderately deep w. without wp.Shallow water with wp.
Shallow water with helophytesShallow water without wp.
Very deep water
Low situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub
Deep water with wp.Deep water without wp.Moderately deep w. with wp.Moderately deep w. without wp.Shallow water with wp.
Shallow water with helophytesShallow water without wp.
Very deep water
Low situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub
Deep water with wp.Deep water without wp.Moderately deep w. with wp.Moderately deep w. without wp.Shallow water with wp.
Shallow water with helophytesShallow water without wp.
Very deep water
Low situated forestLow situated grasslandLow situated bareLow situated shrubHigh situated forestHigh situated grasslandHigh situated bareHigh situated shrub
Ecotopes
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 47vrije Universiteit amsterdam
1234
N N
1234
0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0
M e te r s
0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0
M e te r s
4
3
2
1
Number of target types of breeding birds
4
3
2
1
Number of target types of breeding birds
1-78-1415-2122-28
1-23-67-1516-28
Number of target typesNumber of target types
Value map of breeding birds
Value map of breeding birds
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 48vrije Universiteit amsterdam
1234
NN N N
0 600 1200Meters
(the least valuable)
(the most valuable)
Value
Value breeding birds Value non-breeding birds
Value birds (0.5-0.5)
Value birds (0.75-0.25)
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 49vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Waardekaarten1234No Data
0 500 1000 Meters
N
Reclass of Map Calculation 1WVB << WHBWVB < WHBWVB = WHBWVB >> WHBWVB > WHB
Value map birds Water stored vertically
Value map birds Water stored horizontally
Difference map
Difference (WSV-WSH)WSV << WSHWSV < WSHWSV = WSHWSV > WSHWSV >> WSH
Value1 (the least valuable)234 (the most valuable)
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 50vrije Universiteit amsterdam
WHBWVBWDAgeen
alternatief
0 500 1000 Meters
N
Best alternative map Worst alternative map
AlternativesNo alternatives best or worstWater directly transportedWater stored verticallyWater stored horizontally
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 51vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Project ‘The Benefits of Water’Project ‘The Benefits of Water’
Goal : Show the social benefits of water management
Saline case-study : Management & policy of the North Sea and the Duthc coast.
. 1. Integral trade-off ‘Hondsbossche Seawall,
trigger: potential bottleneck in the coastal defence
2. Integral trade-off Sea-reserve Voordelta,
trigger: compensation/restoration of the biodiversity North sea
Done in 2001
Cooperation between IVM, RA, Alterra, RIKZ, RIZA en BD
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 52vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Project ‘The Benefits of Water’
Goal: – Show the social benefits of water management
Saline case-study: – Management & policy of the North Sea and the Dutch coast.
Cooperation between IVM, RA, Alterra, RIKZ, RIZA en BD– Done in 2001
Integral trade-off ‘Hondsbossche Seawall– trigger: potential bottleneck in the coastal defence
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 53vrije Universiteit amsterdam
BastionBastion DunesDunes SlufterSlufter
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 54vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Process in the Saline case-studyProcess in the Saline case-study
3 perceptions: Geld (money) Economy
Groen (green) Ecology
Gevoel (emotion) Social Cultural
3 steps: Quantificaton of Effects
Evaluation with help of indicators
Trade-off within and between de 3 G’s
3 alternatives per case: Hondsbossche Bastion
Hondsbossche Dunes
Hondsbossche Slufter
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 55vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Economic valuation (1)Economic valuation (1)case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’
Effect Valuation methodOmzet landbouw Verdrongen productie
Verandering productiviteitMarktprijzen
Opbrengst Recreanten Verandering aantal recreantenVerandering in beleving
Reiskostenbenadering
Perceptie gewaarb.Veiligheid
Verandering in beleving Contigent ValuationMethod
Perceptie van biodiversiteit Verandering in beleving Contigent ValuationMethod
Zoetwateropslag en –winning
Verworven productie Marktprijzen
Onroerendgoedwaarde Verandering huizenprijzenVerandering in aantal huizen
Hedonische prijzenMarktwaarde
Visserij opbrengst Onstaan kraamkamer Productiefunctiemethode
Economische bedrijvigheid Vermeden overstromingsschade Risico-analyse
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 56vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Bastion(in miljoen guldens)
Duinen(in miljoen guldens)
Slufter(in miljoen guldens)
Kosten
Investering 138 227 145
Onderhoud 21 4 5
Baten
Landbouw 9,6 10,3 0
Recreatie 0 0,6 4,2
Perceptie van veiligheid 18,8 13,4 0
Perceptie van biodiversiteit 0 5,4 26,9
Zoetwateropslag en -winning 0,1 0,6 0
Onroerend goed 24,3 121,4 108,8
Visserij 0 0 22,5
Voorkomen schade 135,2 105,4 83,6
Netto Contante Waarde 30 26 97
Kosten Baten ratio 1,2 1,1 1,7
Noot: periode 2000-2050, de jaarlijkse opbrengsten zijn verdisconteerd tegen een discontovoet van 4 procent
Economic Valuation (2)Economic Valuation (2)case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’case ‘Hondsbossche Seawall’
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 57vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Conclusions
Well-considered trade-off and decisions need integral information (such as geld, groen en gevoel);
Research and trade-off has to influence and inspire each other constantly;
‘Play with knowledge’ in stead of presenting knowledge improves well-considered decision-making with a larger public support.
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 58vrije Universiteit amsterdam
Valuation and evaluation methodsEnvironment Economy Social/Culture Evaluation
Cost Effectivenessanalysis (CEA)
Social-Economicanalysis (SEA)
Extended cost-Benefit analysis
Integrated
Nature Efficiency analysis (NEA)
Environmental and / or natural values
Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Financial and/or economic
values
Separate
Local support analysis (DA)
Social and/or cultural values
Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
Graphic Evaluation Analysis (GEA)