Strategic Roadmapping take control in times of uncertainty

Dr Rob Phaal & Dr Imoh Ilevbare Institute for ManufacturingUniversity of Cambridge19 April 2016

IfM Education and Consultancy Services Short Webinar Series

Who we are

Energy, Fluid Mechanics &

Turbomachinery

Electrical Engineering

Mechanics, Materials & Design

Civil Engineering

Manufacturing & Management

Information Engineering

Institute for Manufacturing

What we do

Technology and Innovation Management Theory and Practice since 1993

• Technology and innovation management processes & systems

• ‘Fast-start’ workshop methods

• Visual methods

• Tools and toolkits

Clive Kerr

The nature of strategy

Complex, Ambiguous, UncertainInformation quality and situational awareness

“Predictions are hard, especially about the future” - anon

Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision

Time

Market

Business

Product

Service

System

Technology

Science

Resources

Functional perspectives(Roadmap

architecture)

Route(s) forward

KnowledgetypesWhen?

What?

How?

Push

Pull

Information types

DriversStrategy

Needs

FormFunction

Performance

SolutionsCapabilitiesResources

Why?

Roadmap framework(Supports integrated and aligned strategic and innovation planning)

Key questions: 2) Where are we now?

3) How can we get there?

1) Where do we want to go?

Typical viewpoints

Commercial & strategic

perspectives

Design, development & production perspectives

Technology & research

perspectives

Roadmapping framework provides an integrative information architecture for strategy & innovation

General roadmap form

2) Where are we now?

?

?

?

3) How can we get there?

? c) How can we do it?

? b) What should we do?

? a) Why do we need to act?

(When?)

?

?

?

1) Where do we want to go?

Time

Roadmapping supports strategic dialogue

An agile / lean ‘fast-start’ approach is efficient and low risk, providing strong diagnostic functionality… ‘dirty mirror’ – senior Philips manager c. 2008

Example roadmap

Page 38

Kazakhstan upstream oil & gas technology and R&D roadmap, May 2013

Intelligence system modesKerr et al, 2006

Strategy Intelligence

The quality of strategy depends on the quality of information & knowledge

InnovationSystem Structure (taxonomy) Scaleable (hierarchy)

Portfolio

Scenarios

STEEPI(Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental,Political, InfrastructuralTrends & Drivers)

Linkinggrids

SWOT (Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,Threats)

Roadmaps enable integrated toolkits

Porter’s Five Forces

ForesightTechnology Intelligence

tMarket

Business

ProductServiceSystem

TechnologyResources

Valuation /Balanced scorecard

Mitchell et al., 2014

Treatment of uncertainty in portfolio selection

Strategy under Uncertainty

?

Courtney et al., 1997

Level 4: True ambiguity

Level 3: A range of futures

Level 2: Alternate futures

Level 1: A clear-enough future

Example tools

ForecastingRoadmapping

Real optionsRoadmapping

ScenariosRoadmapping

System dynamicsRoadmapping

Example situation

2019?

2018?

Article 50March 2017

“Brexit means Brexit”June 2016

Scenarios

Scenarios can be very helpful in providing structure to an uncertain/ambiguous future

• Can reduce a range of futures to a set of plausible alternatives

• Ease decision making in high uncertainty

Shell style (RSSB, 2009) (also see Shwartz, (1991))

Complex/highly uncertain outlook resulting from a combination of multiple, difficult-to-predict trends/drivers, e.g.

Automation

Digitalisation

Re-shoring

Skills

New technologies, etc.

Scenarios

Shell style (RSSB, 2009) (also see Shwartz, (1991))

A more structured view of the future

Two sequential toolkit configurations:1) Scenario-led roadmapping

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

Roadmap A

Roadmap B

Roadmap D

Roadmap C

Synthesised central roadmap,

pathways and decisions

Baseline roadmap

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Test baseline roadmap against scenarios

Test baseline roadmap against scenarios

Modified (& more robust)

roadmap

Two sequential toolkit configurations:2) Roadmapping-led scenarios

Key matters in using scenarios within roadmapping

To build-in flexibility and robustness in decision making (e.g. by applying options thinking)

• Identifying the commonalities

• Identifying the significant differences

• Choosing which of the commonalities and strategic options / investments to focus on

• Understanding what signals and triggers to look out for

Risk-aware roadmapping

Ilevbare, 2013

Issues influencing how you address risk (and uncertainty) in the context of roadmapping

Perceptions;Biases;Group dynamics

Key principles

• Human-centric

• Workshop-based

• Neutrally facilitated

• Lightly processed

• Scalable

• Visual

In conclusion… An ‘agile / lean’ toolkit approach

suitable for uncertain times

Kerr et al., 2013www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping

Workshop template for early stage technology innovation strategy, incorporating future value scenario, demonstration and options thinking

Q&A

Contact information:

Rob Driver+44 (0)1223 748263rad74@cam.ac.uk