What an ex –ICRAF DG does—

Rural Development or Research?

Pedro A. Sanchez

The Earth Institute at Columbia University

24 February 2012

Options

Retire and go fishing

Shift from CG-type research to

development

Shift to more strategic tropical soils

research

SS Africa 1 16

Latin America 3 48

South & East Asia 3 48

China 5 80

N. America,

Europe

10 160

21st Century African Green Revolution

Components

Agriculture

MarketsNutrition

Policies

Environment

Politics

Soils

Water

Seeds

AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005

15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3 tons/ha)

But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m in Africa

Tipping point (25%?) not reached

Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in conjunction with bank credit systems.

Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop insurance

Cellphone revolution

Africa is really taking off

Malawi—The First African Green Revolution

Smart subsidies

Harvest

Year

Million

tons

Food

requireme

nt

Yield

(tons/ha)

Officially

2005 1.3 - 43% 0.8 drought

2006 2.4 + 18% 1.5 good

2007 3.3 + 57% 2.7 good

2008 2.8 +32% 1.6 good

2009 3.6 +58% 2.2 good

2010 2.9 +33% 1.9 drought

2011 3.3 +56% 2.2 drought

2007:

Subsidy cost: $70 million

Benefit: $688 million

Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology,

Ministry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011

Malawi: Low Prices

Community leads / Science-based

5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005

Pampaida, Nigeria

Harvest

Year

Maize

(tons/ha)

Upland

rice

(tons/ha)

Soybeans

(tons/ha)

Cowpea

(tons/ha)

2005* 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5

2006 3.5 - - -

2007 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.0

2008 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.0

2009 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.1

2010 4.3 2.4 1.6 1.1

Pampaida, Kaduna State, NigeriaSource: MVP Office, Zaria

02

46

81

0

Maiz

e g

rain

yie

ld (

t/h

a)

2005 2006 2007 2008Cropping season

Sauri

The real yield gap

Working Schools: Pampaida2006 2007

Road2006 2007

Businesswoman-Sauri

From Agrovets to Agrodealers

Stunting of Children under 2 Years

Stunting

Prevalence:

Baselin

e n=376

Year 3n=720

Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42%

Tiby, Mali 63% 38%

Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36%

Sauri, Kenya 62% 38%

Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37%

Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38%

Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15%

Potou, Senegal 30% 31%

Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20%

Overall 52% 32%

R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)

African Green Revolution 2.0

Scaling–up. African governments to lead

Bring in organic inputs

Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack

collateral

Work closely together with the private sector

Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency

21st Century extension

Reduce pre and post harvest losses

Increase efficiency

SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years

Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%. Support seed companies

Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems

Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15 kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30

Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2 to 10kg/mm ET

Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+% of water applied to penetrate the soil

Targeting recommendations

Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?

Credits

Subsidies

Rewards

1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha

87% E

Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency

Extension

Learn from the top farmers

0 - 5 cm5 – 15 cm15 – 30 cm

30 – 60 cm

60-100 cm

100-200 cmEffective depth

Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil Map 100 by 100 m

Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009

Sentinel Site

16 Clusters

10 Plots

4 Sub-plots

Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling

Sentinel Site a spatially stratified,

hierarchical, randomized

sampling framework

Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments

MethanePhosphorus

C SequestrationAgroforestry

Mobile lab

SMSLab in a box

National Digital Soils Central

Training a new generation of

African soil scientists

Combine Appropriate Interventions, but

find out where specific interventions don’t

work, or take too much time

By all means combine mineral fertilizers

with organic inputs

Conservation agriculture (herbicides +

power)

Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic

science?

Biochar ?

What is your yield target?

What are your environmental targets?

The bottom line