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What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

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What an ex ICRAF DG doesRural Development or Research? Pedro A. Sanchez The Earth Institute at Columbia University 24 February 2012
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Page 1: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

What an ex –ICRAF DG does—

Rural Development or Research?

Pedro A. Sanchez

The Earth Institute at Columbia University

24 February 2012

Page 2: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Options

Retire and go fishing

Shift from CG-type research to

development

Shift to more strategic tropical soils

research

Page 3: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

SS Africa 1 16

Latin America 3 48

South & East Asia 3 48

China 5 80

N. America,

Europe

10 160

Page 4: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

21st Century African Green Revolution

Page 5: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Components

Agriculture

MarketsNutrition

Policies

Environment

Politics

Soils

Water

Seeds

Page 6: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005

15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3 tons/ha)

But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m in Africa

Tipping point (25%?) not reached

Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in conjunction with bank credit systems.

Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop insurance

Cellphone revolution

Africa is really taking off

Page 7: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Malawi—The First African Green Revolution

Smart subsidies

Page 8: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Harvest

Year

Million

tons

Food

requireme

nt

Yield

(tons/ha)

Officially

2005 1.3 - 43% 0.8 drought

2006 2.4 + 18% 1.5 good

2007 3.3 + 57% 2.7 good

2008 2.8 +32% 1.6 good

2009 3.6 +58% 2.2 good

2010 2.9 +33% 1.9 drought

2011 3.3 +56% 2.2 drought

2007:

Subsidy cost: $70 million

Benefit: $688 million

Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology,

Ministry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011

Malawi: Low Prices

Page 9: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Page 10: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Community leads / Science-based

Page 11: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005

Page 12: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Pampaida, Nigeria

Page 13: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Harvest

Year

Maize

(tons/ha)

Upland

rice

(tons/ha)

Soybeans

(tons/ha)

Cowpea

(tons/ha)

2005* 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5

2006 3.5 - - -

2007 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.0

2008 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.0

2009 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.1

2010 4.3 2.4 1.6 1.1

Pampaida, Kaduna State, NigeriaSource: MVP Office, Zaria

Page 14: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

02

46

81

0

Maiz

e g

rain

yie

ld (

t/h

a)

2005 2006 2007 2008Cropping season

Sauri

The real yield gap

Page 15: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Working Schools: Pampaida2006 2007

Page 16: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Road2006 2007

Page 17: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Businesswoman-Sauri

Page 18: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

From Agrovets to Agrodealers

Page 19: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Page 20: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Stunting of Children under 2 Years

Stunting

Prevalence:

Baselin

e n=376

Year 3n=720

Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42%

Tiby, Mali 63% 38%

Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36%

Sauri, Kenya 62% 38%

Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37%

Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38%

Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15%

Potou, Senegal 30% 31%

Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20%

Overall 52% 32%

R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)

Page 21: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

African Green Revolution 2.0

Scaling–up. African governments to lead

Bring in organic inputs

Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack

collateral

Work closely together with the private sector

Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency

21st Century extension

Reduce pre and post harvest losses

Page 22: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Page 23: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Page 24: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Page 25: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Increase efficiency

SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years

Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%. Support seed companies

Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems

Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15 kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30

Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2 to 10kg/mm ET

Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+% of water applied to penetrate the soil

Targeting recommendations

Page 26: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?

Credits

Subsidies

Rewards

Page 27: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha

87% E

Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency

Page 28: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Extension

Page 29: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Learn from the top farmers

Page 30: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

0 - 5 cm5 – 15 cm15 – 30 cm

30 – 60 cm

60-100 cm

100-200 cmEffective depth

Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil Map 100 by 100 m

Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009

Page 31: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Sentinel Site

16 Clusters

10 Plots

4 Sub-plots

Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling

Sentinel Site a spatially stratified,

hierarchical, randomized

sampling framework

Page 32: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments

MethanePhosphorus

C SequestrationAgroforestry

Page 33: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?
Page 34: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Mobile lab

SMSLab in a box

National Digital Soils Central

Page 35: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Training a new generation of

African soil scientists

Page 36: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

Combine Appropriate Interventions, but

find out where specific interventions don’t

work, or take too much time

By all means combine mineral fertilizers

with organic inputs

Conservation agriculture (herbicides +

power)

Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic

science?

Biochar ?

What is your yield target?

What are your environmental targets?

Page 37: What an ex-ICRAF DG does Rural Development or Research?

The bottom line


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