What an ex –ICRAF DG does—
Rural Development or Research?
Pedro A. Sanchez
The Earth Institute at Columbia University
24 February 2012
Options
Retire and go fishing
Shift from CG-type research to
development
Shift to more strategic tropical soils
research
SS Africa 1 16
Latin America 3 48
South & East Asia 3 48
China 5 80
N. America,
Europe
10 160
21st Century African Green Revolution
Components
Agriculture
MarketsNutrition
Policies
Environment
Politics
Soils
Water
Seeds
AfGR 1.0 Real Impact since 2005
15-20 million rural Africans are out of hunger who weren't in 2005 (yields from 1 to 2-3 tons/ha)
But, it’s <10% of currently rural hungry, 240 m in Africa
Tipping point (25%?) not reached
Input subsidies work and are the main tool, in conjunction with bank credit systems.
Agrodealers , crop diversification, crop insurance
Cellphone revolution
Africa is really taking off
Malawi—The First African Green Revolution
Smart subsidies
Harvest
Year
Million
tons
Food
requireme
nt
Yield
(tons/ha)
Officially
2005 1.3 - 43% 0.8 drought
2006 2.4 + 18% 1.5 good
2007 3.3 + 57% 2.7 good
2008 2.8 +32% 1.6 good
2009 3.6 +58% 2.2 good
2010 2.9 +33% 1.9 drought
2011 3.3 +56% 2.2 drought
2007:
Subsidy cost: $70 million
Benefit: $688 million
Denning et al, 2009 Plos Biology,
Ministry of Agriculture data for 2008-2011
Malawi: Low Prices
Community leads / Science-based
5 tons/ha, Sauri, Kenya 2005
Pampaida, Nigeria
Harvest
Year
Maize
(tons/ha)
Upland
rice
(tons/ha)
Soybeans
(tons/ha)
Cowpea
(tons/ha)
2005* 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.5
2006 3.5 - - -
2007 3.7 2.0 1.6 1.0
2008 3.7 2.1 1.6 1.0
2009 4.1 2.0 1.6 1.1
2010 4.3 2.4 1.6 1.1
Pampaida, Kaduna State, NigeriaSource: MVP Office, Zaria
02
46
81
0
Maiz
e g
rain
yie
ld (
t/h
a)
2005 2006 2007 2008Cropping season
Sauri
The real yield gap
Working Schools: Pampaida2006 2007
Road2006 2007
Businesswoman-Sauri
From Agrovets to Agrodealers
Stunting of Children under 2 Years
Stunting
Prevalence:
Baselin
e n=376
Year 3n=720
Pampaida, Nigeria 78% 42%
Tiby, Mali 63% 38%
Koraro, Ethiopia 62% 36%
Sauri, Kenya 62% 38%
Mwandama, Malawi 55% 37%
Ruhiira, Uganda 49% 38%
Mbola, Tanzania 42% 15%
Potou, Senegal 30% 31%
Bonsaaso, Ghana 25% 20%
Overall 52% 32%
R. Remans et al. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2011)
African Green Revolution 2.0
Scaling–up. African governments to lead
Bring in organic inputs
Banks to lend to the rural poor that lack
collateral
Work closely together with the private sector
Close the real yield gap; increase efficiency
21st Century extension
Reduce pre and post harvest losses
Increase efficiency
SSA going from 1 to 3 tons/ha in 10 years
Increase penetration of high yielding seeds to 70%. Support seed companies
Incorporate organic inputs (esp. agroforestry) in fertilizer-based smallholder farming systems
Increase nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) from 10-15 kg maize/kg fertilizer N to 30
Increase rainfed water use efficiency (WUE) from 2 to 10kg/mm ET
Increase irrigation use efficiency from 48 to 75+% of water applied to penetrate the soil
Targeting recommendations
Financing N-fixing Inputs. How?
Credits
Subsidies
Rewards
1 ton/ha 3 tons/ha
87% E
Increased yields = Increased water use efficiency
Extension
Learn from the top farmers
0 - 5 cm5 – 15 cm15 – 30 cm
30 – 60 cm
60-100 cm
100-200 cmEffective depth
Targeting Recommendations: Digital Soil Map 100 by 100 m
Sanchez et al Science, 385: 680-681, 2009
Sentinel Site
16 Clusters
10 Plots
4 Sub-plots
Randomization to minimize local biases that might arise from convenience sampling
Sentinel Site a spatially stratified,
hierarchical, randomized
sampling framework
Legacy Data: Soil Management Experiments
MethanePhosphorus
C SequestrationAgroforestry
Mobile lab
SMSLab in a box
National Digital Soils Central
Training a new generation of
African soil scientists
Combine Appropriate Interventions, but
find out where specific interventions don’t
work, or take too much time
By all means combine mineral fertilizers
with organic inputs
Conservation agriculture (herbicides +
power)
Evergreen agriculture– apply genomic
science?
Biochar ?
What is your yield target?
What are your environmental targets?
The bottom line