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WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Democratic aspirations of Africans:What can we learn from it?EDEM E. SELORMEY, AFROBAROMETR
April 30, 2019
Where Afrobarometer works
• Round 1, 1999-2001 12 countries
• Round 2, 2002-2003 16 countries
• Round 3, 2005-2006 18 countries
• Round 4, 2008-2009 20 countries
• Round 5, 2011-2013 35 countries
• Round 6, 2014-2015 36 countries
• Round 7, 2016-2018 34 countries
AB now represents the opinions of more than three-fourths of Africans
Survey demographics
Gender %
Men 50
Women 50
Residence
Urban 45
Rural 55
EducationNo formal education 20
Primary 27
Secondary 37
Post-secondary 15
Religion
Christian 54
Muslim 34
Other 11
3
WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
The demand and support for
democracy in Africa
Key demand-side indicators of democracy
|34 countries | 2017/2018
78%74% 72%
68%
54%
42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Reject
presidential
dictatorship
Reject one-
party rule
Reject military
rule
Prefer
democracy
Reject all 3
authoritarian
alternatives
DEMAND
DEMOCRACY
(prefer
democracy +
reject all 3
alternatives)
43%46%47%
52%54%
57%61%62%62%62%63%65%67%67%68%68%69%69%69%70%70%72%73%75%75%76%77%77%78%80%81%81%81%82%84%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
eSwatiniTunisia
MadagascarLesotho
South AfricaMozambique
São Tomé and PríncipeMalawiSudan
CameroonBurkina Faso
NamibiaKenya
MaliGambia
AVERAGENigeria
MoroccoNiger
LiberiaCabo Verde
GabonBeninTogo
ZimbabweGuinea
Cote d'IvoireMauritiusTanzania
BotswanaUgandaGhanaZambia
SenegalSierra Leone
Popular support
for democracy
| 34 countries
| 2016/2018
Respondents were asked: Which of
the following statements is closest
to your view?
Statement 1: Democracy is
preferable to any other kind of
government.
Statement 2: In some
circumstances, a non-democratic
government can be preferable.
Statement 3: For someone like me, it
doesn’t matter what kind of
government we have.
(% who say democracy is
preferable)
WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Support for democratic institutions
and processes in Africa
Popular support
for elections | 34 countries
| 2016/2018
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: We should choose our leaders in this country through regular, open, and honest elections.
Statement 2: Since elections sometimes produce bad results, we should adopt other methods for choosing this country’s leaders.
48%
54%
57%
61%
61%
64%
68%
70%
70%
72%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
77%
77%
78%
78%
78%
79%
79%
80%
80%
80%
81%
81%
82%
83%
83%
84%
84%
87%
88%
50%
42%
42%
36%
33%
32%
31%
24%
21%
25%
27%
25%
25%
23%
22%
22%
19%
18%
18%
20%
20%
20%
19%
19%
18%
19%
16%
18%
16%
17%
15%
16%
14%
11%
11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lesotho
eSwatini
Malawi
South Africa
Mozambique
Tunisia
Gabon
Cameroon
Morocco
Cabo Verde
Nigeria
Togo
Niger
34-country average
Madagascar
Burkina Faso
Kenya
Mauritius
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Namibia
Sudan
São Tomé and Príncipe
Tanzania
Senegal
Guinea
Ghana
Mali
Zambia
Benin
Uganda
Liberia
Côte d'Ivoire
Sierra Leone
Gambia
Should choose leaders through elections
Should use other methods to choose leaders
Support for
multiparty
competition | 34 countries
| 2016/2018
Respondents were asked: Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: Political parties create division and confusion; it is therefore unnecessary to have many political parties in [your country].
Statement 2: Many political parties are needed to make sure that [citizens of your country] have real choices in who governs them.
34%
36%
39%
40%
48%
52%
57%
57%58%
58%
58%
60%
60%
61%
62%
63%
63%
64%
65%
65%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
71%
73%73%
75%
75%
75%
75%
76%
76%
81%
44%
62%
57%
55%
46%
43%
42%
40%42%
33%
39%
35%
37%
32%
36%
29%
33%
31%
33%
33%
32%
27%
30%
29%
24%
27%
24%26%
20%
22%
22%
22%
20%
22%
17%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Morocco
Lesotho
Senegal
Tunisia
eSwatini
Sudan
Niger
Mali
Liberia
Mozambique
São Tomé and Príncipe
Madagascar
South Africa
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
34-country average
Kenya
Zambia
Guinea
Benin
Ghana
Nigeria
Burkina Faso
Cabo Verde
Malawi
Togo
Namibia
Mauritius
Uganda
Botswana
Gambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Tanzania
Gabon
Many political parties needed to give citizens a real choice
Political parties create division; don't need many
Should president
be accountable
to Parliament? | 34 countries
| 2016/2018
Respondents were asked:
Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
Statement 1: Parliament should ensure that the president explains to it on a regular basis how his
government spends taxpayers’ money. Statement 2: The president should be able to devote his full attention to developing the country rather than wasting time justifying his actions. 34%
40%
42%
51%
52%
54%
55%
56%
57%
60%
60%
60%
60%
61%
62%
63%
63%
64%
66%
66%
66%
67%
67%
69%
69%
69%
73%
73%
73%
75%
75%
77%
78%
78%
79%
61%
49%
51%
49%
47%
42%
42%
42%
33%
38%
32%
36%
31%
35%
36%
33%
34%
33%
29%
31%
33%
30%
31%
31%
17%
27%
25%
26%
22%
22%
20%
20%
20%
21%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Tunisia
Mozambique
Madagascar
Liberia
Nigeria
Sudan
South Africa
Namibia
Zimbabwe
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
São Tomé and Príncipe
Kenya
eSwatini
Lesotho
34-country average
Malawi
Zambia
Côte d'Ivoire
Senegal
Burkina Faso
Uganda
Gabon
Guinea
Morocco
Cabo Verde
Tanzania
Mali
Mauritius
Togo
Ghana
Gambia
Botswana
Benin
Niger
President should be accountable to Parliament
President needn't justify his actions
Views on two-term
limits for president | 34 countries
| 2016/2018
Respondents were asked:
Which of the following statements is closest to your
view?
Statement 1: The Constitution should limit the president to serving a maximum of two terms in office.
Statement 2: There should be
no constitutional limit on how long the president can serve.
(% who “agree” or “agree very strongly” with Statement 1) 54%
61%
62%
62%
64%
66%
68%
68%
70%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
74%
74%
75%
75%
75%
75%
76%
76%
77%
77%
78%
78%
81%
82%
82%
84%
85%
85%
87%
89%
91%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mozambique
Lesotho
South Africa
Morocco
Cabo Verde
Cameroon
Madagascar
Namibia
Ghana
Burkina Faso
São Tomé and Príncipe
Mauritius
Botswana
Tunisia
Uganda
Zimbabwe
34-country average
eSwatini
Liberia
Kenya
Malawi
Sierra Leone
Sudan
Senegal
Nigeria
Mali
Côte d'Ivoire
Niger
Guinea
Zambia
Benin
Gambia
Togo
Tanzania
Gabon
Support for democratic governance 20 countries
2008-2018
78%
84%
82%
74%
69%
75% 75%
73%70%
73%
69%69%
66%
64%
65%64%
60%
63%
64%62%
53%
56%
61%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008/2009 2011/2013 2014/2015 2016/2018
Support elections
Support two-term limit on
president
Prefer democracy
Many political parties are
needed
President must be
accountable to Parliament
Should be free to join any
political organization
Government accountability
more important than
efficiency
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Inprovements in supply of democratic
governance compared to the past
Views on supply of democratic goods | 34 countries
| 2016/2018
60%
63%
61%
75%
66%
51%
63%
67%
58%
55%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
For media to investigate and criticize
For opposition parties to function
For independent groups to function
To join political organizations
To say what you think
LEVEL OF FREEDOM HAS HELD STEADY OR INCREASED:
Country is a "full democracy" or a democracy with minor
problems
Last national election was free and fair (completely or with
minor problems)
Somewhat/completely free to say what one thinks
President rarely/never ignores Parliament
President rarely/never ignores laws and courts
WWW.AFROBAROMETER.ORG
Perceived Democratic
governance Supply deficits
Key supply-side indicators of democracy| 34 countries | 2016/2018
Respondents were asked: - In your opinion, how much of a democracy is [this country] today?- Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [this country] today?
51%
43%
34%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Country is full
democracy/democracy
with minor problems
Satisfied/Very satisfied with
democracy
SUPPLY OF DEMOCRACY
(country is a democracy +
satisfied with democracy)
Satisfaction with how democracy is working | by region
| 34 countries | 2016/2018
Respondents were asked: Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in [your country]?
(% who say “fairly satisfied” or “very satisfied”)
59%
46%42%
38%
18%
43%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
East Africa West Africa Southern
Africa
North Africa Central
Africa
34-country
average
Democratic governance supply deficits
cnt.
• Across many indicators, the supply of democratic and accountable governance is
declining over time and lagging behind citizen demand.
• Freedom of speech has shrunk (by 9 percentage points between 2008/2009 and
2016/2018 across 20 countries)
• Ordinary Africans decry the failure of their national legislators and local councilors
to listen to their constituents’ concerns. Seven in 10 (71%) believe that local
councilors “never” or “only sometimes” make an effort to listen.
• Parliamentarians perform even worse – only 16% of their constituents believe they
are genuinely listened to.
• Fewer than four in 10 citizens believe they could access information on the budget
for basic education or for projects envisaged under local development plans,
indicating low levels of transparency in public finance.
• Perception of corruption among government officials is high and increasing. Fully
seven out of 10 (71%) think at least some elements of their country’s Presidency is
corrupt, and are unimpressed by the state’s efforts to combat corruption.
Views on supply of democracy | 20 countries |
2008-2018
57% 58%
52%56%
49%52%
45%47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008/2009 2011/2013 2014/2015 2016/2018
Country is a "full democracy" or a democracy with minor problems
Fairly/Very satisfied with the way democracy is working
Conclusions and Recommendations
Sustaining African democratic
aspirations
• Citizens across Africa indicate a clear desire for democracy and many of
its key institutions and processes, including civil liberties, clean elections,
and governmental transparency and accountability.
• The evidence also exposes the failure of African political elites to keep
pace with the aspirations of their citizens for democracy and
accountable governance.
• To satisfy the quest for democracy in Africa, donors must not retreat from
the promotion of democracy and good governance, because doing so
will be out of sync with what African citizens want and will only
strengthen the hands of non-liberal democratic influences
• Encourage improvements in the supply of democratic and accountable
governance - in alignment with popular desires, of the African Union, The
African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, the African
Peer Review Mechanism, and the relevant SDGs.
¬ END¬
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Thank you
You can find out more at:
www.afrobarometer.org