Post on 29-Dec-2015
transcript
What Resources Matter to the Chemical Industry ?
Coal, Gas, Oil
Electricity (Hydro, nuclear or above)
Water (solvent, coolant)
Human Resources
IP
Metals (Fe ….. Rh)
Nonmetals (Chlorine, Bromine …. Selenium)
Minerals (CaMgCO3, Phosphates, Potassium…)
Reality Check I: Are we becoming more oil dependent ?
Tons of oil / Mio Euro of GDP (Germany)
Reality Check II: Are Commodities becoming Rare ?
Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)
Reality Check III: How about the Future (2005)
Who digs Metals & Minerals ?
• Iron (CVRD)
• Base metals: Al, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni
• Precious Metals Ag, Au, Pd, Pt
How are metals classified ?
Precious Metal Prices (US $ / ounce)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Ag Ru Ir Os Pd Au Re Pt Rh
US $ / ounce
1
Ag
RuIr
OsPd
AuPt
Rh
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
US $ / ounce
Precious Metal Prices
Base Metal Prices (US $ / pound)April 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Pb Al Zn Cu Ni U
Metals And Minerals: Zinc
• Brass (Cu-Zn alloy) known in Assyria & Babylon
• Up to 1800 exclusively mined in India, current mines in China, Canada, Japan, Australia Korea
• Byproduct of Pb, Cu, Ag mining
• 50 % used in galvanization (corrosion inhibition)
• 20 % used for brass
• Essential metal with no substitutes !
• Demand > supply, new mines planned in Bolivia, China
• Largest producer: Teck-Cominco (Canada)
• World production 10.3 Mio tons (2004), up 6% from 2003
• Price expected to rise due to lack of new mines & steeply rising demand from India/China (China Jan-Jul 2005: 67,000 t compared to 15,000 in 2004)
Metals And Minerals: Zinc
Zinc Prices
Zinc Inventory
Metals And Minerals: Nickel
• No technical use up to 1850
• At present 70 % used for stainless steel
• Largest producers: Norilsk Nickel (RUS) Inco (CAN), Australia 1.2 Mio tons (2004) Supply growing 5 % annually
• Worldwide demand for stainless steel growing 5% annuallyVosey's Bay, Inco planned for 2006: 60,000 t real production 2006 12,000 tRavensthorpe (AUS) 50,000 /y 2007
Nickel Prices
Nickel Inventory
Metals And Minerals: Pt - Pd
• Pt First described by Italian Humanist Caesar Scaliger but known to South American Indians before that.
• Usual product of Cu and Ni refining but pure Pt mines exist in South Africa
• Largest consumer: Car Catalysts, Ostwald Process
• Largest producer: Anglo Platinum• 80 % of Pt from S.A., tendency rising, Russian Production falling• 50 % of Pd from Russia• 850 $ /ounce Pt (Apr 2004: 994, 24 y high)• 170 $ /ounce Pd
Metals And Minerals: Cu
• 16.5 Mio t 2005. Largest Producer: Codelco (Chile)
• Producing countries US > CAN > Zaire, Sambia, Poland
• Indispensable electrical conductor (only Ag, Au are better)
• Currently trading at all time high
• No general agreement on price development Price predicted to fall in 2007 but rise again 2009
• Cu in Chile: 40 % of exports, 9 % of GDP• Escondida mine is 20 % of Chile’s coppper and 2.5 % of Chiles GDP• Supports 10,000 jobs
• Electrolytic Copper refining
Copper Prices
Copper Inventory
Silver
• Historical corellation with gold price weakening• Small market 10 % of Gold, strong price fluctuationsSideproduct of Ni, Pb, Cu, Au mining other mining activitiesMexico, Peru, Australia, China, Poland40 % industrial use (mainly electroncis, 30 jewlery, 25 % PhotographyIncreasing demand (electronics) declining reserves, no newminesCurrent reserves last a 5 years, 2011Largest Producers Rio Tinto (GB), BHP Minerals (AUS)End of film photography price drop, but slowly rising since 1998Currently 6 - 7 $ /ounce
Prejudice 1. Not enough areaExample Germany: Roof area 800 km2
= 175 TWh (Conversion 13.5%)= 33 % of current electricity use
Prejudice 2: Too expensive• Doubling of production capacity reducess price by 20 %• Break even point with current oil/gas prices I this decade
Prejudice 3: Negative energy balance• Current solar cells require 7 y to recover energy costs• Lifetime > 30 y• New energy saving photovoltaics (organic dyes) on horizon
Solar Energy - Silicon
• Solar electricity currently more expensive than fossil electricity
• Breakeven: 2011 (Germany) even earlier in California, Spain (China, India)
California, 12 pm: $ 0.8 conventional - $ 0.4 solar
• Will depend on political decisions (no incentive = baseline)
Solar Energy - Cost Analysis 2004 to 2050
• Annual growth: 25-30 %• $ 7 Billion (2004) up from 4.7 Billion (2003)• Expected 2010: $ 40 Billion (MKD: China ? India ?)• Demand for S.Cells outstrips supply (!)• Bottleneck: Supply of pure Si• Demand for Solar Si surpassed electronic Si in 2005
Installation (2004) • Germany 300 MW• Japan 280 MW• US 90 MW (booo)
Largest Players: 1. Sharp (Japan)2. BP (UK)3. Solarworld (Germany) - Best of breed4. Q-Cells (Germany
Solar Energy - Some Hard Facts
Solar Energy - The Market in 2006
Global revenues (2003) : $ 4.7 Bn
US Solar energy: 40 % global market (1997)13 % global market (2003)
•Solar energies daily profile matches demand (!)
• Rating of solar installations in kWp (kilpo Watt peak)• mono- or polycrystalline silicon dominant materials • Direct current, has to be changed to alternating current
Munich Terminal 2 - 450 MWh electricity = 400 t CO2 / year
US PRC JP RUS GER IND BRAS
ComsumptionProduction
Mio t
Large Consumers