Post on 08-May-2015
description
transcript
Peter Cochrane
When Machines
Design
Wachines!
www.cochrane.org.uk
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Where is...
2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
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Where is...
2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
In 1970 it was 30 years in the future
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Where is...
2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
In 1970 it was 30 years in the future
In 2000 it was 30 years in the future
2
Where is...
2001: A Space Odyssey Stanley Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke 1968
In 1970 it was 30 years in the future
In 2000 it was 30 years in the future
In 2010 it was 30 year in the future
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The complexity involved was not understood...
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Where is...Far more was
than known !
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Intelligence demands:
- context
- cognition
- awareness
What we now know for sure:
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Let us pray
Let us spray
Lettuce spray
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After 1.8Bn years we still can’t……adequately describe, define, quantify or understand intelligence
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It is just another word that lacks any full or adequate descr ipt ion, definit ion, quantification, measure or meaning...
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• Life• Intelligence• Complexity• Scaleability• Value• Think(ing)
It is just another word that lacks any full or adequate descr ipt ion, definit ion, quantification, measure or meaning...
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And wordy descriptions of the form...
“The faculty of rational behaviour”
“An ability to create order out of chaos”
...do not help one iota !
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Despite the dire warnings about the limitations of his test and the way it can be applied it is still used today !
Unfortunately all attempts to quantify and measure IQ have turned out to be a waste of time !
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On the other hand this would not be a good answer !
Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything from the supercomputer, Deep Thought, specially built for this purpose. It takes Deep Thought 7½ million years to compute and check the answer, which turns out to be 42. Unfortunately, The Ultimate Question itself is unknown.
Douglas Adams: The Hitchhikers Guide to The Universe
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So’ where is AI ?
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Kasporov...1997
IBM Big Blue
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Kasporov...1997
IBM Big Blue
...and people got very upset - as another age old barrier was broken!
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Computer games...today !
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Modelling the unthinkable & designing exit strategies !
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Everywhere !
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Everywhere !
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AI is gradually taking over the complex and the mundane!
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But, what is intelligence ?
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But, what is intelligence ?
We d
on’t a
ctually
know
!
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Remembering, recalling facts might be ?
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Remembering, recalling facts might be ?
What’s your name ?
Explain quantummechanics!
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Remembering, recalling facts might be ?
What’s your name ?
Explain quantummechanics!
We c
an ge
t mach
ines t
o do t
his !
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Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
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Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
It is c
ertai
nly a
fast s
earch
engin
e!
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Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
It is c
ertai
nly a
fast s
earch
engin
e!
It is c
ertai
nly a
good
spea
k rec
ognis
er!
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Is IBM Watson Intelligent ?
It is c
ertai
nly a
fast s
earch
engin
e!
It is c
ertai
nly a
good
spea
k rec
ognis
er!
It is c
ertai
nly do
ing so
me con
text!
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Man - Machine conflict is with us !
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Man - Machine conflict is with us !
Combin
ed hu
man m
achine
intel
ligenc
e !
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Remembering stuff & a p p l y i n g a rehearsed algorithm?
Remembering stuff , knowing algorithms, creating the new and novel ?
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Remembering stuff & a p p l y i n g a rehearsed algorithm?
Remembering stuff , knowing algorithms, creating the new and novel ?
I wen
t to s
choo
l with
kids
like t
his!
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Remembering stuff & a p p l y i n g a rehearsed algorithm?
Remembering stuff , knowing algorithms, creating the new and novel ?
I wen
t to s
choo
l with
kids
like t
his!
I got
to w
ork w
ith pe
ople
like t
his!
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Intelligence demands:
What we now know about intelligence
- data...lots of data- context...many examples- cognition...algorithms(+) ?- sensory systems
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My analysis says Comparative Intelligence looks like this:
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
For detail GOTO: http://www.cochrane.org.uk/publications/
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
Observations on:
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
Observations on:
With zero processor power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
Observations on:
With zero processor power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
With zero memory power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
Observations on:
With zero processor power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
With zero memory power intelligence is still possible
Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ]
With zero sensor and/or actuator power intelligence is impossible
Ic ~ k log2[1] = 0
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Ic ~ k log2[1 + KAS ( 1 + PM )]
Ir =Flops (or machine cycles)
Relative Intelligence
Ic
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One element of the evidence...
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One element of the evidence...
60% light up !
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Intelligence grows logarithmically and not linearly !
The singularity event isn’t going to happen just yet !
The assumption that is is is based on I ~ PM growth looks to be wrong
Kurzweil et al
Key conclusion:
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Not fully understandingsomething doesn’t implywe cannot exploit it!
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Not fully understandingsomething doesn’t implywe cannot exploit it!
Newton Einstein
Linear Non-Linear
Ballistics
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So where is AI in design ?
Circuit, chip, system design + production control & logistics
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So where is AI in design ?
Big plant design + production control & logistics
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So where is AI in design ?
Complex system design + control & adaptive systems
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So where is AI in design ?
DARPA Mach 20 trial design
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So where is AI in design ?
NASA SatCom antenna design
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So where is AI in design ?
NASA Space habitat design
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So where is AI in design ?
DATA Space search & design
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A lot of AI design combines AL & evolution !
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But is AI ever creative ?
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A p l a n e t a r y walker not by t h e h a n d o f man....and not an evolutionary step on from a n y e x i s t i n g design!
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Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly apocalyptic on the topic:
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Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly apocalyptic on the topic:
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Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly apocalyptic on the topic:
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Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly apocalyptic on the topic:
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Science fiction & Hollywood are mostly apocalyptic on the topic:
…but the reality is quite different..so far!42
AI is more than a useful tool, it is now an essential element of our future:
- Robotics- Cybernetics- Complex Systems-- Smart Materials- Genetics- Proteomics- Nano - Bio Systems
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When Machines Design Machines:
Our progress will accelerate....
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COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
www.ca-global.org
Thank you !
www.cochrane.org.ukSlide set and supporting papers are here:
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