Work Programme and where next for welfare to

work?Kris Krasnowski

Director for London, InclusionKris.Krasnowski@cesi.org.uk

Rich source of information and data on London labour market @ City, Sub-regional and borough level.

Quarterly summary of trends and Annual London Story (due on 10 December)

Visit us @ http://lseo.org.uk/

Work Programme in London

What to expect on 27th November...

Diminishing GDP forecasts...

Source: Office for Budget Responsibility

...and job outcomes that follow GDP...

Source: Inclusion. Analysis of DWP and ONS data

Should lead to lower performance...Stupid!

Expectation that economic malaise will impact on Work Programme job outcomes

Suggests greater agility required in modelling to compensate for impact of changing GDP on performance

Will Work Programme step up to the challenge of vLTU or inactive?

Debatable...

Tougher labour market pushes most disadvantaged further back...

Bread and butter for primes has always been JSA – are existing models capable?

WCA potentially undermining interventions?

Still issues with voluntary referrals via random assignment

Where next for welfare to work?

Competition on performance or price?Local vs. Nationally designed

programmes?UC and in-work conditionality is a

game changer......We are advocating an extension of

mutual obligations to low paid/in-work claimants

Conditions for a better jobs programme?

Join the LSEO for a Work Programme debate

December 2012Date and venue TBC

Visit: http://lseo.org.uk/