Post on 21-Dec-2015
transcript
“Climate Change = The change in average conditions of a particular place over a long period of time. (We usually link ‘climate change’ to rising temperatures but this is NOT the full story).
What is Climate change?? …
HINT: Climate is what you expect, Weather is what you get!
Everyone has heard the phrase, but what does it actually mean?
Climate Change vs Global Warming
Global warming refers to the rise in average surface temperature of the earth.
Climate change refers to all changing factors of Earth’s climate including temperature, rain, wind and humidity. Temperature is not the only thing that is changing and it is not just getting hotter.
“Use of energy in New York can affect the life of birds in the Harren Island on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia”
“Climate change has taught us how closely the world is connected”
“The contribution of Islands to Climate Change is insignificant (0.03%)but they stand first in facing the brunt of Climate Change….”
Interesting revelations on climate change…
According to the IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
Increasing temperature trend..
Increasing global sea level rise trend..
Islands will experience the first effect of sea level rise
Islands like Car Nicobar, Chowra are most vulnerable
Though the effect may not be immediate it will surely influence the livelihood in future
Ocean Acidification…An another concern for Marine ecosystems..
Some of the excess CO2 in the atmosphere is also being dissolved into the ocean. This is causing the water to become more acidic.
This is bad news for marine ecosystems, especially to coral reefs, fish, marine mammals and other animals who call the ocean their home. It is also bad news for those who rely on fishing for their businesses or as a source of food.
Changes in temperature
Changes in pH in the
environment
Acid rain
Changes Ammonia level
Thermal stress pH stress
Multiple stress (Thermal + pH)
Bio-molecular changes
Growth reduction & Mortality
Organic decomposition
Climate change
Importance of climate change and associated effects
Integrated Assessment Model for Climate Change on Ecosystem
•Temperature variation•Sea level rise•Changes in rain pattern•Depletion of Oxygen•Droughts and floods
CLIMATE CHANGEClimate change
impacts on ecosystem • Distribution Pattern• Species Extinction.• Disease Susceptibility• Livelihood
•Migration to comfortable zone•Maturation & Breeding Cycle•Embryonic development•Hypoxia•Changes at Organism, cellular, molecular & organelles level
Physiological Impact
• Local Adaptation
• Advance information & planning
• Reduction in Anthropogenic emissions
• Biotechnological & genetic manipulation
• Dietary manipulation (Neutracueticals)
Mitigation Measures
MITIGATION
EnvironmentalImpacts
ADAPTATION•Income
•Employment
•Malnutrition
•Reduction in ancillary activity
Socio-Economic ImpactSocietal
adaptation
Physiological adaptation
Interactions with Multiple Stressors
Species Extinction
Failure
Climate induced in marine ecosystems…
Temperature & Sea
level
Salinity, pH, Currents
Nutrients
Oxygen
Ice cover
Turbulence & mixing
Wind - Speed &
Direction
Storm
-Frequency/intensity
Evaporation
Precipitation & Runoff
Species distribution
Reproduction & Recruitment
migration, abundance
Physiology & Behaviour
Sex ratios
Calcification rates
Upwelling
Coastal habitat loss
Coral bleaching frequency & severity
Disease Incidence
Algal blooms
Productivity
Distribution
Species availability
Days at sea
Accidents
Loss of harbour/ homes
Damage to assets
High insurance costs
Livelihood diversification
Difficulty in seasonal livelihood activities
Physical Ecological Fisheries
Consequences of climate change…
● Increase in air temperature
● Increase in sea surface temperature (SST)
● Increase in sea-level
● Increase in CO2 in atmosphere and water
● Changes in rainfall/ extreme rainfall events
● More extreme weather conditions- more number of cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons
Some Negative Consequences of climate change…
• In Asia alone more than a billion people will be affected by water shortage by 2050.
• Changes to India's annual monsoon are expected to result in severe droughts and intense flooding in parts of India.
• With more than 60% of agriculture dependent on rain-fed crops, even modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall should cause a large negative impact on food production.
• Increase in water borne diseases such as cholera and hepatitis, as well as diseases carried by insects such as malaria.
• Climate change is expected to contribute to air quality problems and respiratory disorders will increase due to warming-induced increases in the frequency of smog.
Why our Islands are significant in CC context…
• Limited physical size in case of Nicobar Islands: Makes coastal retreat impossible where entire islands may be inundated
• Relative isolation
• Limited natural resources and over exploitation
• Import dependence on external markets
• Intra- and inter-island migration
• Growing urbanization: e.g. degrading natural sea defenses
• Poorly infrastructure, Limited funds and human resource skills severely limits the capacity to adapt
Important events concerning Islands …
2007 2007 2012 2017Tsunami
Major destruction in Andaman and Nicobar Islands
Land subduction
Inundation of sea water in agri fields
2002
Mass bleaching of corals in Andaman
60-70% of live corals damaged
X PLAN
Over past decade the Islands have witnessed significant events concerning
climate change and meteorological parameters
Major dry season incidence
Reduced rainfall
Major cyclone incidences
Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans …
Andaman Group of Islands• Mountainous volcanic islands
• Threats due to sea-level rise is NOT severe
• But there is threat to livelihood due to loss of key habitats
Nicobar Group of Islands• Coral Islands: Mostly flat topography
• Rise in sea-level would mean higher tides/storm surges
• Extreme climates may affect the freshwater supply
• Threats to livelihood due to loss of land, key habitats
Climate change vis-a –vis Andamans …
Three pillars of Economy
● Tourism
● Fisheries
● Agriculture
Coastal Habitats affecting Tourism and fisheries
Due to the elevated SST and subsequent mass bleaching in 2010, 60-70% of corals have been destroyed in Andaman
Bleaching of corals in Andaman waters…
Mangroves and its importance…
• All social and ecological value depending on Mangroves will be affected.
• Income of fishermen will be drastically affected.
• Commercial fisheries related to Mangrove ecosystem will be affected.
• Loss of habitat for a number of molluscs, birds, insects, crustaceans, monkeys, and reptiles.
• Mangrove destruction will affect coastal development and human safety.
Influence on Marine Fisheries….
• Loss of corals and mangrove ecosystems would result in reduction in recruitment of fishes and thus productivity.
• Increased temperature reduces dissolved oxygen and also leads to harmful algal blooms : Mass mortality of fish
• Climate change alters local ecosystems – competitors and predators
• Increases risk involved in fishing (due to storms/cyclones)
• Loss of fishing infrastructure
Chowra is the most vulnerable island to climate-associated disasters
Agricultural Vulnerability map prepared based on multiple parameters showed that about 20% of the area in Car Nicobar has high vulnerability to climate change
1. Corals in Indian Seas bleached during 1998, 2002 and 2010 due to high seawater temperature.
2. Considering the threshold temperature of bleaching; and how many times the threshold will be exceeded in this century, the number of bleaching events until 2100 was predicted.
3. It appears that coral bleaching may be an annual event from the year 2020.
Coral Demise Model Predictions…
RegionRegion Decade at which Decade at which corals begin to corals begin to declinedecline
Decade at Decade at which corals which corals would be would be remnantremnant
AndamanAndaman 2030 - 20402030 - 2040 2050 - 20602050 - 2060
NicobarNicobar 2020 - 20302020 - 2030 2050 - 20602050 - 2060
LakshadLakshadweepweep
2020 - 20302020 - 2030 2030 - 20402030 - 2040
Gulf of Gulf of MannarMannar
2030 - 20402030 - 2040 2050 - 20602050 - 2060
Gulf of Gulf of KachchhKachchh
2030 - 20402030 - 2040 2060 - 20702060 - 2070
Predicted demise of Indian corals
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
A Least Developed Country with an Unstable political environment
Donors don’t trust govt and hence no funds flow
Poor response from Govt. to deal with climate change
Unprotected coasts
Witnessing adverse climate changes (Frequent floods/Cyclones) almost every year during last three decades.
Burma
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
1% of the world’s tropical storms hit Bangladesh.
More than 36% of the people live below poverty line.
Per capita income is US $370, emphasizing the economic depression.
Climate models estimate a constant increase of temperature in Bangladesh and vulnerability to water related diseases.
Bangladesh
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
• Low level lands, occupying 80% of the country – they are disaster prone.
• About 10% of the country is hardly 1 m above the mean sea level.
• Higher population density (>1209 persons per km2; 133 million people) limits the migration within the country.
Effect on climate change on neighborhood countries…
1. Coastal regions of Thailand are extremely vulnerable to climate changes.
2. Coastal erosion, altered wetlands, frequent floods are some of the observed impacts of climate change.
3. Most of the population reside in proximity to the oceans.
4. Landslides pose a serious threat to these coastal villages.
Thailand
How nearby countries influence our security …
• Displaced people may move to our islands. As the population is ethnically similar to our population it is difficult to identify them. These will be potential security risk
• Loss of livelihood of this huge population may lead to poaching in our seas.
• This can also lead to their taking up drug trafficking, gun running using our sea routes at the behest of bigger player antagonistic to our interests
Climate Change will surely Influence …
• Tourism
• Food security
• Infrastructure
• Economic and Financial Impacts
• Coastal and Marine resources
• Water resources
• Health
Key message: Adaptation is a ‘no regrets’ strategy with immediate
benefits
Adaptation is an opportunity to improve:
• natural resource management and physical planning
• ability to deal with the natural hazards as well as the growing human-induced stresses on the environment.
• Adaptive responses can be:– Technological (e.g. improving coastal defences)– Managerial (e.g. introducing crop rotation)– Policy-based (e.g. strengthening planning regulations) – Behavioural (e.g. preparing one’s home for a hurricane)