144
327 25 1 31 24 1 ( )
327
25 1 31
24 1
( )
24 1 24 1
( 24 1 )
24 1
( )
( ) 73(2061) 100
( )
25 1
���
���
24 ( )
24 1 22
1)
24 1
30
24 1 1424 1
24 1
1) 23(2011) 72(2060)
73(2061) 122(2110) ( 24 1 ) 24 3
���
22(2010) 72(2060) 5010 1
72(2060) 122(2110)10 1
2
1
population projection 3)
2) 1)
3)
���
2
forecast
3
projection
���
(3)
4
4)
4)
���
5
���
5)
1
2
- -
5)
���
- - 24 1
1.0
24 1
18 12
6) 99
24 1
2060 1,746
6) kt
���
20.1 65
2060 44.235.8 8.4 7)
7) 39.9
���
1
- -
8) 2010 10 1 2011 9 30
-0.62
9) 2011 79.44 85.90
���
2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2005106.3
1.26
1973209.2
2.14
1966136.1
1.58
1949269.7
4.32
( )
2011105.1
1.39
-- --
����
- -
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1.12
(1985 )
1.00
(1995 )
0.82
(2010 )
- -
����
- -
3
- -
- -
- -
10)
����
- -
( )
- -
30 ( 1955 ) 8,928 12,879 1.44
35 ( 1960 ) 9,342 12,942 1.39
40 ( 1965 ) 9,827 13,079 1.33
45 ( 1970 ) 10,372 13,319 1.28
50 ( 1975 ) 11,194 13,760 1.23
55 ( 1980 ) 11,706 13,649 1.17
60 ( 1985 ) 12,105 13,513 1.12
2 ( 1990 ) 12,361 13,179 1.07
3 ( 1991 ) 12,404 13,103 1.06
4 ( 1992 ) 12,445 13,001 1.04
5 ( 1993 ) 12,476 12,872 1.03
6 ( 1994 ) 12,503 12,785 1.02
7 ( 1995 ) 12,557 12,608 1.00
8 ( 1996 ) 12,586 12,575 1.00
9 ( 1997 ) 12,617 12,426 0.98
10 ( 1998 ) 12,649 12,294 0.97
11 ( 1999 ) 12,669 12,113 0.96
12 ( 2000 ) 12,693 11,997 0.95
13 ( 2001 ) 12,729 11,855 0.93
14 ( 2002 ) 12,744 11,735 0.92
15 ( 2003 ) 12,762 11,559 0.91
16 ( 2004 ) 12,769 11,393 0.89
17 ( 2005 ) 12,777 11,136 0.87
18 ( 2006 ) 12,777 11,014 0.86
19 ( 2007 ) 12,777 10,905 0.85
20 ( 2008 ) 12,769 10,744 0.84
21 ( 2009 ) 12,751 10,631 0.83
22 ( 2010 ) 12,806 10,494 0.82
����
11) 2030 20
1.0 1.0 2060 50
2.7 -2.7
-2-3
����
����
-- -- 22001100 ,, 22003300 ,, 22006600
(1) 22(2010)
(2) 42(2030)
(3) 72(2060)
-1-1
(0 14 )
(15 64 )
(65 )
����
( )
1)
- -
12)
13) 1
-- --
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
18
24
����
- -
- -
- -
70
75
80
85
90
95
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
18
24
24
18
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
18
24
����
2
62.2 (
31.0 ) 395.9 (197.6 ) 13.5
(6.7 ) 271.2 ( 135.4 )
2
14) H18 2005 10 2010
100 2005 2010
����
2055 14
751.6 861.4 8.4
9.4
132.2 117.0
( 40.5 19.9 )
15 64 4,595.1 4,706.3
51.1 51.2
225.6 173.7
598.8 526.9
65 3,646.3 3,625.7 20.7
40.5 39.4 1.1
162.8%
65
2055 65
1.1
152.5
89,930 91,933 2,003 622 3,959 135 -2,712 -1,634 -1,079 -669 -4097,516 8,614 1,098 76 1,452 15 -445 -237 -208 -126 -82
45,951 47,063 1,112 485 2,507 51 -1,931 -1,052 -879 -547 -33136,463 36,257 -207 60 0 69 -336 -344 8 4 4
100.0% 31.0% 197.7% 6.7% -135.4% -81.6% -53.9% -33.4% -20.4%100.0% 7.0% 132.2% 1.3% -40.5% -21.6% -18.9% -11.4% -7.5%100.0% 43.6% 225.6% 4.6% -173.7% -94.7% -79.1% -49.2% -29.8%100.0% -29.2% 0.0% -33.5% 162.8% 166.6% -3.8% -1.8% -2.0%
8.4% 9.4% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% 0.0%51.1% 51.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2% -0.4% -0.2% -0.1%40.5% 39.4% -1.1% -0.2% -1.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
100.0% 2.7% 117.0% 0.2% -19.9% -8.6% -11.3% -6.6% -4.7%100.0% 192.8% 526.9% -20.9% -598.8% -232.1% -366.6% -228.9% -137.7%100.0% 19.1% 152.5% -1.6% -69.9% -27.9% -42.0% -25.8% -16.2%
����
( )
1
15) 15 49
15 50 15 49
����
- -
16)
24 1
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
(2010 )
(2005 )
����
- -
2
- -
����
-- --
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1947
52
1952
57
1957
62
1962
67
1967
72
1972
77
1977
82
1982
87
1987
92
1992
97
20 24
25 29
30 34
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1965
69
1970
74
1975
79
1980
84
1985
89
1990
94
1995
99
2000
04
2005
09
2010
14
2015
19
1960
20 24
25 29
30 34
����
-- -- 22000000
����
- -
- -
- -
100 0
����
- -
- -
- -
- -
17) ( ) ( )
2
����
- - 1
- -
����
- - 3
����
- -
0
100
105
110
115
120
125
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
)
)( )
)
2010
����
- -
(
[1] [a]) (([2]+[3]) [b])
[2] [3]
([2] ([2]+[3])
([1]+[2])
([1]+[2]) (a)
[2]
[2]
����
- -10
-
-10
- -10 TFR
(TFR)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
-TFR
-TFR
-TFR
-TFR
����
( )
1
2
- -11
18)
2060 83.22 89.96
84.93 91.51
����
-- --
����
3
, = +
,
- -12
- -13
-- --1122
24
-- --1133
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
( )
1
28
- -26
28)2012 24 1
2011 Population Projections for Korea: 2010-2060. Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (2010). Previsioni regionali della popolazione residente al
2065. Federal Statistical Office (2009). Germany’s Population by 2060: Results of the 12th
coordinated population projection. Statistik Austria (2011) .Bevölkerungsvorausschätzung 2011-2050, sowie
Modellrechnung bis 2075 für Oberösterreich (Hauptszenario). Bundesamt für Statistik (2010). Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz
2010-2060.Statistics Norway (2012). Population projections. National and regional figures,
2012-2100. Office for National Statistics (2011). 2010-based national population projections - principal
projection and key variants. Statistics Sweden(2011). .
Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economique(INSEE)(2010). Projections de population 2007-2060 pour la France métropolitaine.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008). Population Projections Australia 2006 to 2101.
U.S.Census Breau (2008). 2009 National Population Projections (Supplemental).
����
- -26
- -26
1.08 1.26 1.32 1.34 1.41 1.42
1.79 2.06
1.84 1.79 1.77 1.94
1.23 1.39 1.41 1.39 1.44
1.54
1.89 1.93 1.95 1.98 1.98 2.03
1.42 1.35
1.60
1.40 1.50 1.52
1.80
2.03 1.93
1.84 1.82 1.95
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1.5 1.5
- -27
79.6 78.0
80.2 79.0
77.2
79.5 79.5 78.9 77.7 77.5 78.2
76.2
84.2 86.0 86.0 86.2 86.6
85.0 84.7 86.0 85.9
85.0 86.9
81.0
86.4 84.7 84.6 84.1 84.1 84.0 83.5 83.2 83.2 82.6 82.3
81.1
90.9 91.1 90.0
91.1 90.3
88.0 86.9
89.1 89.5 89.2 90.1
85.3
65
70
75
80
85
90
95 2010 2060
����
-
-27
- -28
- -28 2010 100
100
67.7 79.1
89.9
102.8 111.9 114.8 116.0 116.8
131.4 141.7 142.1
163.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
����
- -29
- -29 2010 2060
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
- -30 2010 2060
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
- -30
����
- -31
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095
100+
2010
13.1
23.0
63.8
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095
100+
2060
9.1
39.9
50.9
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095
100+
2010
13.4
66.0
20.6
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.005101520253035404550556065707580859095
100+
2060
11.5
54.5
34.0
����
- -31
- -31
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
2010
19.0
67.3
13.7
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
2060
17.5
57.4
25.1
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
2010
18.3
64.8
16.8
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100+
2060
16.4
56.9
26.7
����
����
( )
( 24 1 )
18 12 2010
2061 100 2160
( )
50100
����
2060
242010 1.39
2010
2110
2010
2060 35.9% 211036.5% 2060 39.9% 2110 41.3%
(2)
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
-- --
-- --
����
24
2060
2.00 1.75 1.50 1.251.00
- -
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
-- --
����
2030
7.10
5 10 2550 75 100
20302030
20302031
- -
- - - -
2060 2.00 1 874 11.75 9,974 1
1.00 7,659 2010 62110 2,556
9,516 2.002110
-800000
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
5
10
25
50
75
100
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
-- --
-- -- -- --
����
2045 2.001.75 2050
2060 1.5038%
1.00 2060 45.2% 211051.2%
- - - -
752060 50 1 1,484
2.00 1 874 25 9,7991.75 9,974
2110 50 9,2042.00 9,516 25 6,031 1.757,129 2060 2110
2060 50 31.9%2.00 31.9% 25 36.2%
1.75 34.7% 2110 5033.4% 2.00 28.3% 25
37.6% 1.75 32.6%
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
0
5
10
25
50
75
10020
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110
0
5
10
25
50
75
100
-- ---- --
����
29) (2060 2110 )- - - -10 2060 500 2110 2000
1 20601 28
1.76 211055
2.0- -11 - -12
2060 1% 2110 2%
29) - - - -
- - 2060
(2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00)
2060
-- --10 (2110 )-- -- (2060 )
����
30% 2060 30%63
2.0 21102060 74
1.930%
2060 21102060
21102110
2010 1.3%2060
4%
25 2060 1 50 2
-- --11 (2060 ) -- --12 (2110 )
40%
300%300%
40%
����
A-1 A-3 2010(0
14 15 64 65 )
A-4 A-6 2010(0
14 15 64 65 )
A-7 2010(0 14 15 64 65 )
A-8 A-10 ( )
(0 14 15 64 65 )
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
B-1 B-7
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
����
�����
C-1 C-5 20602.00, 1.75, 1.50, 1.25. 1.00
(0 14 15 64 65 )
C-6 C-12 20300 5 10 25 50 75 100
(0 14 15 6465 )
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
D-1 D-8 72(2060)172(2160)
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
�����
� � � � �
��������� �����������
�������� !�"# $%!&'(
)*+,-./012345
���� ��
� �������� �������� �� !� "#
67389:;2<=>?
@ABCDEFGHI)*+,-.J
>?K
LMNOPQR�%STUVTWX5=YZC[\]^_
`aW5bLMcd2e28f8�3fghi j kbLMcd2e28f<�hg<lmnW5b<dd�dd<<
opK qrs�optuFELMNOPQRvQw:x<3x<<
`aW5bLMcd2e23l2�8<8l
![Ã| Ã{Y{ d^ ¿ ÉZÅ Äf Æ¿ { [M t Ê^ ¿ cY Ì̤e Á Ê] Ìv» ,Ê´À ... · ¹Zn¿Y ZÅ Ã Z y ¾ËY { Êf§Z] Á Ê^̯ e ÉZÅ yZ ¾ÌÌ e  À» Ä] ,½Y Ë Ôa _°](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/5ebd18bb3d0dc21cb9182434/f-fy-d-z-f-m-t-cy-oeoee-oev-.jpg)
![- É{Z f«Y Ä Âe Á É Y~´f ZÌ ] ½M ÉZÅ|»ZÌa Á Ê ¼m À¯ ª À»€¦ · Z] d ZÌ º¸ Á ʻ¼ d ZÌ cZ ·Z » ʳ|ÌÀeºÅ { à Z] { Zf m ½YÂÀ Z] Ê ÅÁ a s](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/60a28b94f3379c0d115fd4d3/z-fy-e-yf-zoe-m-zzoea-m-z-d.jpg)
![!¥ : ; 1t . f 2 o%l é ; ç é Î :/. 5ô æ4P Ô . O T...P K ² é 9Ñ ê p Á Ò å Æ Þ Ú ã Á%u Ò Ú x 1ú1 -"õ ] é!¥ : ½2 â Û Ê"ô/ (o æ ß ¿ á K1ñ à ¸ Ò á](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/5f61fc6642b86d274f392046/-1t-f-2-ol-5-4p-o-t-p-k-9-p.jpg)
![¶u ÉY ] ¶WZ - samanketab.roshdmag.ir fileÌËZa | Ç Z¼ | ºf Å Á d Ì] Ç Á{ | Ä Âf» Ç Á{ ½ZÅ ] | ¶WZ » ÉY ] ¶u Ê ZË Ê] ne Á Ê ZË Èf ºÅ{ ÈËZa](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/5e08151c1ec6f93ec679203c/u-y-wz-oeza-z-f-d-oe-f-z.jpg)
![Á Á Á X l Ç Ç ] v µ u v X } u o W è ã é X ä â ä X å ê é ë & Æ W é ê ã X ç ã ë X æ é è ...](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/5aee364e7f8b9a66259110af/-x-l-v-u-v-x-u-o-w-x-x-w-x-x-.jpg)
![Heer Waris Shah-2 - Punjabi Library...Á Á Á XW µ v i ]> ] Ç X } u î _ Ê? YU 9WNc 9WN Pa 7 Ê?\DR Wd^ZWaR Y^eZ Pf Di_ ^aOc64 Pc b^oN DaYf XaY Y^eZ Pf DaY Ai_Y ^ ÊVf 7 Ê? O](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/5feb51875dda8d733059e60f/heer-waris-shah-2-punjabi-library-xw-v-i-x-u-.jpg)
![c Ó v»É Y ]Ê v Ä Á É Y à Á{| Àq ¾Ì»Zeà Ìn¿ Ä °^ Ê uY …jamlu.liau.ac.ir/article-1-1342-fa.pdf“ “ , ‚Ì ËZa, ÊaZÌa ¹ ‡à •Z¼‹,ºÅ{•ZÆqµ](https://static.documents.pub/doc/80x56/5f05ddd17e708231d4151b6c/c-v-y-v-y-f-q-oezef-oen-uy-jamluliauacirarticle-1-1342-fapdf.jpg)
