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Building Pathways from the Middle Grades to College: Learnings from the work of the Chicago Consortium of School Research (CCSR) and CRIS

Presented by Jenny Nagaoka and Eliza MoellerOctober 21, 2014

Bush InstituteDallas, Texas

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Overview

• Brief background on the Consortium on Chicago School Research and the College Readiness Indicator Systems Project.

• What matters for college success• Predictors of high school graduation• What happens in the transition to high school

• Middle grade indicators of high school and college readiness

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Mission of the University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research

CCSR’s mission is to support the search for solutions in ways that: build the capacity of schools to improve by identifying strategies and levers for improvement and working across all levels of the system. (Roderick, Easton, & Sebring, 2009)

We seek to build the capacity of schools and the district through:

• Research identifying what matters: Organizing frameworks

• Indicator development: The critical role of measurement

• Identify leverage points: Support in identifying strategies for improvement

• Outreach to a broad audience: Accessible and actionable publications and presentations and individual school data reports.

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What is a College Readiness Indicator System (CRIS)?

A system of indicators that:

– Measures distinct dimensions of college readiness: academic preparedness, college knowledge, academic tenacity;

– Allows for early identification of students in need of added supports to finish high school “college-ready”;

– Points to actions at three levels: individual, setting, and system

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CRIS promotes an expanded view of college readiness

ACADEMIC PREPAREDNESS

ACADEMIC TENACITY

COLLEGEKNOWLEDGE

Coursework, skills, and achievements needed to succeed

at college-level work

Beliefs, motivation, attitudes, and behaviors needed to successfully engage with academic challenges and college-going goals

Knowledge, skills, and behaviors needed to

access college and

successfully navigate its

demands

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What matters for college success?

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What are does CCSR research tell us about the importance of college knowledge and academic preparedness?

• College qualifications matter : – Qualifications limit the number of college options students have– Students with low qualifications are unlikely to attain a degree.

• College choice and institutions matter:– Particularly for students who are “college ready”, their probability

of graduating varies by which institution they attend.

High schools have an important role in building a college-going climate and providing structured guidance for students to fill in college knowledge gaps so they make informed college choices.

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What matters for high school graduation?

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9th graders who are on track are four times more likely to graduate than students who are off track

Allensworth and Easton (2005)

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Allensworth and Easton (2005)

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Allensworth and Easton (2007)

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What happens in the transition to high school?

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Attendance rates dramatically drop in 9th grade

80% or less

82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

5%

1% 2%2%

4%

5%

9%

12%

19%

28%

13%

25%

3% 3%4%

5%6%

8% 8%

12%

14%

11%

8th Grade Attendance 9th Grade Attendance

Percent of students by attendance categories in 8th and 9th grade (same students in each year, 2008-09 in 8th grade, 2009-10 in 9th grade)

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Grades also decline substantially in 9th grade

Percent of students by GPA categories in 8th and 9th grade (same students in each year, 2008-09 in 8th grade, 2009-10 in 9th grade)

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What indicators matter for middle grades?

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What is an effective indicator?

An effective indicator: • Addresses a problem or issue that is considered to be

a priority by district leadership and school staff.• Is based on something that school practitioners can have

an impact on- (e.g., make sure that it is a malleable factor).

• Can be measured and acted on in a timely manner• Is based on research evidence of what matters in

addressing a problem and have a clear connection to important outcomes.

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What are the best indicators of high school success?

• Core GPA and attendance in eighth grade best predict whether students in high school pass and earn As or Bs

• Test scores in middle grades predict whether students reach ACT’s test score benchmarks

• Other information doesn’t tell us more about who will pass, get high grades or get good test scores, including…• Race, gender, special education status, bilingual status,

age • Subtest scores• Grades in particular classes• Yearly test score gains and test score growth over the

middle grades• Changes in grades over the middle grades• Perseverance, study habits• Discipline records, suspensions

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Change from fifth to eighth grade represents improvement that is at the fifth percentile (top line) or 95th percentile (bottom line) in terms of change from fifth to eighth grade in each indicator. The predicted ninth-grade outcome is based on the eighth-grade indicator, controlling for GPA, attendance rates, and ISAT scores in fifth grade.

Strategies aimed at improving GPA or attendance in middle school would likely have more of a pay-off for high school and college graduation than efforts aimed at improving test scores Predicted ninth-grade outcome for students with the most and least improvement in attendance, GPAs, and test scores in the middle grades (5th to 8th grade)

16

15

15

15

16

16

16

16

10 12 14 16 18 20 22

Predicted PLAN Composite Score

Attendance

Core GPA

ISAT Math

ISAT Reading2.2

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.4

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0

Predicted 9th-Grade Core GPA

Attendance

Core GPA

ISAT Math

ISAT Reading73%

68%

66%

54%

75%

77%

93%

95%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Predicted On Track Rate

3.32.0

Change from 5th → 8th Grade

Core GPA

2.8

99%93%

Attendance

97

276253

ISAT Math

225

248241

ISAT Reading

215

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Students’ GPA can change over the middle grade years by more than half a point

Growth in GPA from Fifth Grade to Eighth Grade Comparing students who start with similar GPA in fifth grade

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Students’ attendance rates in the middle grades are also quite malleable

Growth in Attendance Rates from Fifth Grade to Eighth Grade Comparing students who start with similar attendance in fifth grade

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Growth in Reading Test Scores from Fifth Grade to Eighth Grade Comparing students who start with similar test scores in fifth grade

Students maintain the same rank order relative to their peers throughout the middle grades in ISAT reading

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

ISAT 5th Grade ISAT 6th Grade ISAT 7th Grade ISAT 8th Grade

90th Percentile

Average

10th Percentile

Relative Position in 5th Grade

Relative Position in 8th Grade

Meeting Standards

7th Percentile

11th Percentile

44th Percentile62nd Percentile

89th Percentile

93th Percentile

ExceedingStandards

ExceedingStandards

Meeting Standards

Highest Growth (95th percentile)Lowest Growth (5th percentile)

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Even students who do well in 8th grade are at risk of being off-track to HS

graduation in 9th gradeThe risk of being off-track by 8th grade GPA and

attendance

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Middle-grade information can be used to create simple indicator systems for high school graduation and college readiness with just three indicators

- Freshman on-track status and GPA are best predicted by earlier grades and attendance. High school test scores are strongly predicted by earlier test scores.

Grades and attendance are much more malleable than test scores.

Middle-grade indicators can identify some students at high risk of failure in ninth grade, but most students who end up off-track are not struggling in eighth grade.

Summary

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For full pdf versions of reports, please visit ccsr.uchicago.edu or contact Jenny Nagaoka at jkn@uchicago.edu or Eliza Moeller at meliza@uchicago.edu