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© CNMCA
Cap. Davide MELFIItalian Air Force Meteorological ServiceCNMCA
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Session 4 ofConvection Week 2011, 6-9 June 2011
© CNMCA
OUTLINE
• The model: NEFODINA
• Features - Case studies
• Summary and Outlook
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Classification
Classes DurationLinear Dim. (Km/pixels)
Area (Km2/pixels)
Single Cell 30-50 min. 5-10 / 1-2 20-80 / 1-3
Multicell ThunderstormSquall line
2-6 hours 20-30 / 3-5 310-700 / 8-20
Supercell 1-6 hours 20-30 / 3-5 310-700 / 8-20
Mesoscale convective system
6-12 hours 350-500 / 60-80100.000-200.000/
2800 - 5500
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Detection of Cloudy ClusterVARIABLE THRESHOLD ALGORITHM
200 K° < TB < 236 K°
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Slope index Ellipticity Cloud Top Area Minimum Temperature Modal Temperature Main Temperature
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Parental Relationship
Cross correlation between the COs detected at time t and the COs detected at time (t-1) evaluated minimizing a weighted distance function d on the position of the centre of gravity d1, minimum temperature d2 and modal temperature d3
23
22
21 dddd
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Cross Analysis
7 JULY 2005 - 17:30
WV1 (6.2 m) WV2 (7.3 m)IR (10.8 m)
We classified as convective the object with the same features in the IR and WV channels
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Cold Objects
Some objects near the limit of the troposphere and therefore near the thermal inversion, showed a top more crushed and cold so they weren’t identified like convective from the algorithm because discarded for the
low value of the slope index
DETECTION ERROR SOLVED:
Nefodina, in spite of the optimal demonstrated performances, is constantly monitored
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Case study: 7 May 2005
Cold Objects
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Life Cicle of a Convective Cell
The Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are often correlated with heavy
rainfall, thunderstorms and hail showers, frequently causing significant damage
The most intensive weather activities occur during the growing phase
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Development/Dissolving phase
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Studies on the minimum temperature, area and slope index of objects detected in IR window channel and WV channels of METEOSAT6 has pointed out that the dissolving phase of the CO starts really only when the cloud top descent is simultaneous to a WV decrease.
-56-54
-52-50
-48-46
-44-42
-40
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
time (10 minutes)
BT
(C
)
7.001 111 WVWVIR TTT
7.001 111 WVWVIR TTT
© CNMCA
GRIB FILE
Model Fields
New Output
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Software scheme10.8 m (IR) – time t
6.2 m (WV1) – time t
7.3 m (WV2) – time t
10.8 m (IR) – time t-1
CONVECTIVE OBJECTS (COs) DETECTION AND TRAKING MODEL
NEFODINA
DYNAMIC ANALYSIS
STATIC ANALYSIS(Tmin, Tmed, Tmod, Area, shape, slope, etc..)
Detection in the IR image of all possible COs using a varying threshold method
Calibration
Filter application to sharpen cloud edges
ASCII OUTPUT WITH STORY OF COs
First detection
LIFE PHASE EVALUATION
Already detected
GRAPHIC OUTPUT
PARENTAL RELATIONSHIPCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR features by comparison with previous slot
CROSS ANALYSISCOs Discrimination on the base
of IR, WV1, WV2 features
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Output
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
OutputWith red shades are
indicated the cloud top
of the detected
convective cell
forecasted in growing
phase
With pink shades are
indicated the cloud top
of the detected
convective cell
forecasted in
decreasing phase.
The dark red and dark
pink colors are used to
indicate the most
intensive convective
regions.
Blue shades are used to show the cloud to which we are interested.
Dark blue is used for lowest cloud and light blue/yellow for highest
clouds.
© CNMCA
Output
num
ero
iden
tific
ativ
o de
lla c
ella
AA
MM
GG
G
ora
min
uti
riga
colo
nna
Tm
in K
(IR
)
Tm
ed K
(IR
)
Tm
od K
(IR
)
Tm
in K
WV
6.2
Tm
ed K
WV
6.2
Are
a (I
R)
slop
e in
dex
(IR
)
27 5 2 15 12 30 243 346 219,9 227,8 227,4 222,4 221,9 2 3,627 5 2 15 12 15 241 346 221,2 227,2 225 223 223 2 2,427 5 2 15 12 0 241 352 221,2 226,7 223,8 223,3 222,7 2 327 5 2 15 11 45 242 353 219,9 226,6 222,5 222,4 221,8 2 3,627 5 2 15 11 30 244 354 218,5 226,8 222,5 221,9 220,8 2 2,927 5 2 15 11 15 244 355 219,9 226,6 222,5 222,3 221,5 2 3,627 5 2 15 11 0 247 353 219,9 226,9 223,8 222,2 221,5 2 4,227 5 2 15 10 45 248 354 218,5 227,5 226,2 221,5 221,1 2 2,527 5 2 15 10 30 248 354 219,9 228,4 227,4 222,5 221,4 2 2,627 5 2 15 10 15 248 354 219,9 228,9 230,8 222,7 221,9 2 3,227 5 2 15 10 0 247 354 221,2 229,2 231,9 223,4 223,2 2 427 5 2 15 9 45 246 355 222,5 229,9 227,4 224,1 223,7 2 3,127 5 2 15 9 30 245 355 222,5 230,6 233 224,1 223,9 2 2,927 5 2 15 9 15 246 357 223,8 231,3 230,8 224,5 224,1 2 4,327 5 2 15 9 0 247 358 225 231,6 234 225,1 224,5 2 3,427 5 2 15 8 45 248 360 226,2 231,1 231,9 225,7 225,7 2 1,727 5 2 15 8 30 251 362 227,4 232,8 234 226 226,6 2 1,1
-999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -99928 5 2 15 12 30 240 149 225 230,7 233 225,5 224,4 2 4
-999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -99930 5 2 15 12 30 277 139 219,9 228,2 222,5 223 222,3 2 4,1
-999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -999 -99932 5 2 15 12 30 265 512 228,5 232,2 230,8 0 0 2 5,832 5 2 15 12 15 266 508 227,4 232,8 233 225,9 227,1 2 3,432 5 2 15 12 0 266 502 228,5 232,3 230,8 225,8 227,5 2 4,2
Ascii file with the storyAscii file with the story
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Case study: 2 July 2009
SINGLE CELLSCase study: 03 Agoust 2009
MULTICELL
Case study: 23 September 2009
SUPERCELL
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Case study: 23 September 2009
© CNMCA
Case study: 23 September 2009
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Cbs development along flanking line
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
Verification Against Lightning Data
Correlation = 84%
Case study: 2 July 2009
© CNMCA
NEFODINA – easily configurable:scene size, position, threshold, colors, additional information (CTH).
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
NEFODINAEvery area capability:Airoperations
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
NEFODINAEvery area capability:Maritime operations
© CNMCA
© CNMCA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Rapidscan Service
Second derivative:convection’s acceleration
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
NEFODINA on Satrep Online?
TO BE CONFIRMED
© CNMCA
Conclusions
• NEFODINA has been developed to detect and forecast the severe convective systems present on the scene and all the convective cells inside these systems.
• This is an important support for forecasters of the IAFMS, who test every day the performance and the reliability of this product, to diagnose the convective activity, evaluate its severity and its potential development.
• Early warning with second derivative
• Convection and Lightning
• The last three days of data on ftp.meteoam.it (contact point [email protected])
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA
© CNMCA
Thanks for your attention!
An Italian tool for convection: NEFODINA