© Crown copyright Met Office Transitioning space weather models to operations at the UK Met Office...

© Crown copyright Met Office

Transitioning space weather models to operations at the UK Met OfficeSuzy Bingham, David Jackson, Catherine Burnett and Mark Gibbs

Met Office, UK

ESWW, Thurs. 20th Nov. 2014


• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

• Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC)

• Research models to operations: process & challenges

• Using other NWP methods for space weather

• Summary

Table of Contents

The Met Office


Numerical weather prediction

• NWP: when current weather observations are assimilated into numerical computer models & processed using mathematical equations to generate a forecast of the future state of the weather.

• Met Office has great experience in NWP methods which can be used for space weather forecasting.

Transfer NWP methods for terrestrial weather, to space weather


NWP building blocks

• OBSERVATIONS: forecasts depend on knowledge of the current state of the environment. (1) Research in instruments & obs., (2) real-time acquisition of obs., (3) implementation of research instruments to operational use.

• DATA ASSIMILATION: an accurate representation of the initial state of the environment is vital so assimilate latest obs. (1) Fast comms required to gather obs., (2) expense of computational process.

• PREDICTION: use of a mathematical model to generate a forecast. (1) Use of approximations to evaluate equations, (2) model validation.

Building blocks of NWP & some experiences to build upon:


NWP building blocks

• UNCERTAINTY/ENSEMBLES: creation of multiple versions of a forecast from different initial states to give info on uncertainty of forecast. (1) Small errors can quickly grow to large, (2) resulting variation gives indication of confidence in forecast.

• RISK ASSESSMENT & COMMUNICATION: understand risks of impacts of the forecast & communicate to users. (1) If a large impact is forecast, a group of expert forecasters/scientist/users can be involved in decision making, (2) use of different communication methods (emails, emergency response meetings).

• VERIFICATION: to continually improve operational systems. (1) Use metrics to show how well the model predicts/ value added by forecaster, (2) work within WMO guidelines.


Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC)

• Delivers space weather alerts, warnings & forecasts 24/7. Public forecasts & sector specific forecasts are available:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/emergencies/space-weather

• Sits within terrestrial weather ops centre.

• Provides a platform for running space weather models operationally.

MOSWOC


Operational system at MOSWOC• ‘Operational’ means an automated end-to-end system with:

• a real-time observations stream, • model predictions, • product dissemination & • quality control monitoring.

• Models in an operational system are: (1) rigorously tested, (2) imbedded into a robust infrastructure & (3) supported 24/7.

• Reasons to run models operationally: • to provide unfailing & timely model output to forecasters, • to enable a research model to be run with 24/7 support (reliably), • to run model after a project has been completed, • resilience/backup to another centre, • one place of focus for information.


Research models to operations:the models

Operational: • WSA-Enlil, solar wind speed

• REFM, Relativistic Electron Forecasting Model, daily electron fluence forecast at GEO orbit.

• D-RAP, D Region Absorption Predictions Model, global map of prediction of radio propagation conditions.

Enlil (D. Odstrcil)

REFM (SWPC)

D-RAP (SWPC)


Research models to operations:the models

Semi- operational:

• Multi Instrument Data Analysis System, Bath University, Total Electron Content.

• SPACECAST, British Antarctic Survey/EU project, 0-3hr forecast of >2MeV electron flux.

SPACECASTMIDAS


2. Run revised model on development

environment.

3. Run model on operational suite and

view output on forecaster webpages.

1. Run research model on desktop PC.

• Review licence and terms of use of model and input data. • Understand model processes, input data and output data. • Rewrite in Met Office standard language if necessary.• Adapt code to Linux platform if written in Windows.• Adapt code to run using Met Office database input if necessary.• Change model area covered e.g. to Europe, depending on customer requirements.• Change cadence to meet customer requirements, e.g. REFM changed to 3hours when originally ran daily.

• FTP input files through firewall.• Write ROSE script to auto-run model on operational suite.• Test model doesn’t affect other processes on IBM.• Model resolution can depend upon speed/expense on IBM.• Some commands may need to be changed to run on IBM.• Adapt visualisation code to Met Office style.• Verify output.• Complete Met Office documentation to allow model to run on operational suite.

Research models to operations:the process


Operational process

Process to follow to run a model or service operationally in the Met Office.


Research models to operations:output

External webpage: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/emergencies/space-weather

Once a model is running operationally, output is viewed on internal Met Officewebpages for forecaster use. Forecasts are then provided on the external webpages for public/sector specific use.

MO internal webpages: WSA-Enlil & REFM


Further work following NWP methods

• Note: need to understand space weather needs & not just use off the shelf NWP solution.

• Ongoing: implementing models operationally.

• WSA-Enlil ensemble forecasting – research stage.

• Verification – initial stages. Evaluation of models & forecasts to check they meet & continue to meet requirements.


Proposal for “Carrington” – a UK Space Weather Mission

• A Sun-Earth Sentinel at L5.

• First Operational Space Weather mission – addresses MOSWOC requirements.

• High technology readiness, low risk, low cost.

• High UK heritage: instruments developed by UK scientists.

• Fast transfer to L5 for a 10-year mission.

• 24/7 operations, 100% coverage, continuous data.

• Excellent research output.

• UKMO, UK Cabinet office, protects UK infrastructure hence growth.

• Very large potential for UK industry and UK science to lead the field.

• Excellent opportunity for UK/US bilateral.


Summary• Met Office has built upon its experience using NWP methods, for transitioning

space weather models to operations.

• Challenges which arise when implementing models operationally include: re-writing code & ftping input data through firewalls.

• Continue to transition research models to operations.

• Continue to use NWP methods for space weather forecasting.


Questions and answers


Enlil model• Purpose: Models solar wind speed &

density from Sun to Earth. Predicts CME arrival times at Earth, leading to onset of potential geomagnetic disturbances causing problems in radio comms, GPS navigation, etc.

• Developer: D. Odstrcil

• Input: Output from WSA. WSA uses solar magnetograms to predict background solar wind speed & IMF providing inner boundary conditions for Enlil (we currently use NOAA files).

• Output: Run every 2hrs to produce animation of forecast of solar wind at Earth, STEREO A & B, for next few days.

• Cadence: 1 GONG synoptic map/hr


CME analysis tools

• Purpose: Tool to allow calculation of CME parameters for input into Enlil. Allows user to model evolution of CME outwards from Sun to estimate CME path & arrival time at Earth.

• Developer: NASA (StereoCAT) & NOAA (CAT)

• Input: use STEREO A & B & LASCO images. Fit CME images with a cone over a period of time. Uses triangulation from different viewpoints of spacecraft.

• Output: CME parameters (origin, direction, speed, half-width). Input into Enlil to predict CME arrival at Earth.


SPACECAST• Purpose: Solar activity triggers bursts of energetic

particles. High energy particles can damage satellites & are hazard to manned spaceflight & aviation. Daily fluence is related to deep dielectric charging in spacecraft. SPACECAST predicts high energy electron fluxes/fluence at geostationary orbit (GOES orbit), Galileo/GPS orbit & Slot region orbit.

• Developer: BAS/EU project

• Input: FTP files from BAS model (flux at fixed energies for a range of L* & 2MeV differential flux at a range of pitch-angles & L*)

• Output: 0-3hr forecast of >2MeV electron flux & associated risk index at different orbits. Plot of electron fluence compared with that measured by GOES satellite.


REFM• Purpose: Relativistic Electron Forecast Model. Predicts daily build up of electron flux for

next 3 days at geosynchronous orbit. Allows satellite operators to e.g. plan maintenance, implement protection measures to minimise charging of satellite components.

• Developer: NOAA SWPC

• Input: ACE solar wind speed, GOES electron flux data (>2MeV), GOES particle flux data (>30MeV).

• Output: >2MeV electron fluence at GSO orbit. 1-3 day forecast produced once a day.

• Future: Can also be run using Enlil solar wind speed to give 8 day forecast.


MIDAS• Purpose: Multi-Instrument Data

Analysis System. Images ionospheric activity in real-time. Takes delay in GPS signal to produce European region map of Total Electron Content (TEC) nowcast.

• Developer: Bath University

• Input: Measurements from ground- & spaced-based GPS receivers, & point estimates of local electron density.

• Output: TEC map over Europe every 15mins


D-RAP• Purpose: D-Region Absorption Prediction (in ionosphere, 50-90km). Provides real-time

data of the degradation of HF (3-30MHz) radio propagation conditions (due to solar X-ray flares & solar radiation storms). Provides HF degradation data at all latitudes on sunlit side of Earth.

• Developer: NOAA SWPC

• Input: GOES X-ray flux (1min) & proton flux (5min), estimated 3hr Kp, L-values from geomagnetic model

• Output: Real-time predictions of the global absorption conditions of the D-region, every 1 min.

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