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+Our Asks
Final product?Conceptual model (process map)
Key takeaways
What have we missed, what could be cut?
+Objective
Put forth an interregional assessment of the
preparedness and resilience of Mediterranean nations across intergovernmental and inter-
political relationships during a period of extreme drought
+History of climate change and interstate conflict
Bellagio Conference on Climate Change, Food Production, and Interstate Conflict 1975
Wat
er a
nd C
onfli
ct:
Fres
h W
ater
Res
ourc
es a
nd
Inte
rnat
iona
l Sec
urity
1993
The
Arc
tic
Clim
ate
Cha
nge
and
Secu
rity
Polic
y C
onfe
renc
e
2008
UN Millennium Summit Climate change and its possible security implications 2009
Clim
ate
Cha
nge
and
Secu
rity
in A
fric
a
Cha
lleng
es a
nd
inte
rnat
iona
l pol
icy
cont
ext
200
9Bey
ond
scar
city
:
Ret
hink
ing
wat
er,
clim
ate
chan
ge a
nd
confl
ict
in t
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udan
s 20
14
+Vulnerability & Readiness
We’re interested in how this varies across the Mediterranean
● EU, Non EU, Asia and Africa
There are already assessments of the vulnerability and readiness at national scales
● e.g. NDGain Index
There are two particular factors we’re focusing on:● “Adaptive capacity of the communities is often
depleted when they are in conflict zones” (UNEP, 2009)
● Membership of political unions (e.g. EU)
+Governance
United NationsComprehensive, guidance
on climate change, resource management, and displaced peoples
Middle EastLeague of Arab States (?)
Non – EU Europe
Individual States
European Union
Comprehensive, guidance on climate change,
resource management, and displaced peoples
African UnionResearch, advocacy and
capacity-building for climate change resilience
Mediterranean Union
“peace, stability and prosperity”
+
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
% G
DP
Eu
rop
e
Mid
dle
Ea
st
Afr
ica
RICE 2010
Global temperature increaseBest estimate 2.0 CLikely range 1.4 C - 2.6 C
Economic losses for RCP 8.5 warming
Need for finer scale/sector estimates
How these estimates would change if a “super drought” is superimposed?
Include the possibility of “poverty traps” and downward development spirals
Social and governance consequences
Economic Impact: No Drought
+The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the actual
precipitation compared to the probability of precipitation for various time frames. The SPI is an index based on precipitation only. It can be used on a variety of time scales, which allows it to be useful for both short-term agricultural and long-term hydrological applications.
A drought event occurs any time the SPI is continuously negative and reaches an intensity of -1.0 or less. The event ends when the SPI becomes positive.
Each drought event, therefore, has a duration defined by its beginning and end, and an intensity for each month that the event continues. The positive sum of the SPI for all the months within a drought event can be termed the drought’s “magnitude”.
The National Drought Mitigation Centerhttp://drought.unl.edu/
Climate Change and Migration: Mediterranean Basin
Climate change: Exacerbate existing migration flowsDifferent hazards, different effects: Gradual vs. extreme changes
Important questions:
1) What are the existing migration connections in the Mediterranean Basin?
2) What combination of circumstancescurrently lead people to move there?
3) How might a severe droughtexacerbate these conditions?
4) Potential for novel migration flows?
Abel and Sander, 2014
+Potential Economic Impacts: Drought
Two major factors in the regional economy: tourism and agriculture
Influence of these sectors on GDP is not evenly spread out
Agriculture influence is the highest in: Albania (19.5%) Syria (17.6%) Morocco (15.1%) Egypt (14.5%)
Tourism influence is highest in: Croatia (12.1%) Montenegro (9.8%) Morocco (8.6%) Tunisia (7.3%)
+Potential Economic Impacts: Drought (cont’d)
Agriculture might represent bigger impacts as a larger portion of the economy in more vulnerable countries
Impacts on agriculture are also easier to immediately discern than those on tourism
There are human dimension uncertainties surrounding both Agriculture impact depends on land management Tourism impact depends on how those outside the region
respond – there is more of a lag in response Drought can lead farmers to transition to tourism which
may actually help conserve remaining water resources
+Maslow’s hierarchy – lowered capacity
Desertification – removes safety and physiological due to un-inhabitability, un-profitability
Migration/displaced persons – removes belonging, safety,
physiological due to life disruption/involuntary moves
Scarcity/Economic Reduction – removes self-actualization, self-
esteem, belonging, safety, physiological due to limited
resources
+Maslow’s hierarchy – point of intervention
Current view is that climate change can be solved only after immediate needs (jobs, food, education, etc) have been
solved
Climate change causes problems in areas of belonging, safety, and
physiological and should be solved for in conjunction with other needs