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© OECD/IEA 2012
Content
Roadmap outline: Scope – vision – structure Roadmap analytical capabilities: Modeling tools State of the art
Literature reviewInput data validation – transportPreliminary results
Expected outcomes of the workshop
© OECD/IEA 2012
Structure and scope of the roadmap
© OECD/IEA 2012
Outline of Roadmap
Introduction Rationale for roadmap – H2 in the energy system
TransportStationary applicationsEnergy storageSynergies between energy sectors
Technology status today Vision for deployment to 2050 Technology development – Actions and milestones Policy, regulation, financing: Actions and milestones
© OECD/IEA 2012
Rationale hydrogen
Decarbonization of the energy system
Power sector: Increased demand for operational flexibility creates demand for energy storage
Transport sector: Increased demand for high energy density AND low carbon fuels puts pressure on biofuels and creates demand for alternatives
Stationary: Increased demand for high efficient and integrated processes creates demand to use intersectoral synergies
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key features of Hydrogen
Potentially low carbon Very flexible energy carrier which can be generated from
almost all PE to a suite of useful end-use energy carriers Can store energy
At large scale over long time – Energy storage & VARres integration
At small capacities under restricted space and weight requirements - Transport
Can be used as feedstock to reduce carbon footprint Hydrogen is used in large quantities already today
© OECD/IEA 2012
Key features of Hydrogen
In the long term, hydrogen applications needs to built on: The use of low carbon hydrogenThe need to store energy (either at larger quantities or in
mobile applications) In the short term, existing infrastructure to generate and
distribute hydrogen will have to play a great role to create hydrogen demand markets
© OECD/IEA 2012
Technology status today
Discussion of key technology componentsElectrolyzers, fuel cells and storage technology
Discussion of demand side technologiesFuel cell vehiclesNiche applications
Fork lifts, UPS, micro FC CHP
Hydrogen distribution, transmission and retail infrastructureTransmission technology – Gaseous and liquefied trucking,
pipelinesHydrogen refueling stations
© OECD/IEA 2012
Technology status today
Hydrogen based flexibility options for the power sectorPower – to – powerPower – to gas Power – to – fuel
Efficient steel making processesBlast furnace top-gas recovery with H2 separation and re-
injection
© OECD/IEA 2012
Regional focus
The roadmap will contain global views on certain aspects – e.g. GHG potential of FCEVs in road transport
Detailed analysis will focus on the following regionsEU G4USAJapan
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vision – Transport
What if 25% of all PLDVs are FCEVs by 2050?Vehicle sales and ramp-up ratesDiscussion of global fuel use and emission reduction potentialCosts and benefitsInfrastructure requirements and costs
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
vehi
cles
2DS-high H2
FCEV
BEV
PHEV
Hybrid ICE
Conventional ICE
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vision – Hydrogen storage
What if large scale hydrogen electricity storage can get competitive?Estimation of storage potentials in high VARres integrationWhat costs/efficiencies needs to be reached for H2 electricity storage
technology to be competitive
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vision – Power-to-gas Can power-to-gas be a competitive flexibility option?
At which carbon price power-to-gas can get competitive?Attempt to estimate regional storage potential within existing NG
infrastructure under certain blend shares based on existing studiesWhat techno-economic parameters of electrolyzers needs to be achieved?
Source: Analyse des Klimaschutzpotentials derNutzung von erneuerbarem Wasserstoffund Methan, DVGW 2013
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vision – Power-to-fuel
What if otherwise curtailed electricity would be used to produce H2 for transport?Even under optimistic cost/efficiency assumptions of electrolyzers, low
value electricity needs to be used to make renewable H2 competitive with e.g. NG steam reforming
Can the inherent storage need for transport refueling infrastructure serve as a storage for VARres integration?
Source: Renewable Electricity Futures Study,Volume 1, NREL 2013
© OECD/IEA 2012
Technology development – Actions and milestones Actions and milestones will be set based on the
following metrics:Which cost targets needs to be met – benchmarking of H2
technologies Transport: TCO breakeven with gasoline hybrid ICEs Storage: LCOE breakeven with PHS, CAES
By when cost targets needs to be met Based on FCEVs stock targets, stock turn over and sales ramp-up Based on power sector scenarios and variable renewable integration
This roadmap recommends the following actions: Proposed timeline
Assess and catalogue potential PSH and CAES sites and estimated costs. For PSH, this assessment should include pump-back, off-stream, and closed-loop, land-based and marine potential.
2014-2020
Assess potential and costs of transforming existing constant-speed pumped storage hydropower (PSH) into variable-speed, allowing these plants to provide additional ancillary services
2014-2020
Complete retrofits on existing PSH facilities to improve total efficiency and flexibility. 2020-2035 Improve storage efficiency of CAES systems to 70%, in particular through improvements in compression (turbine) efficiency and adiabatic CAES project development.
2014-2035
© OECD/IEA 2012
Policy, regulation, financing – Actions and milestones
FCEVs: Estimate of economic gapEffect of taxation of petroleum based transport fuelsQuantification of direct subsidies
Power – to – gas: Impact of carbon prizing H2 electricity storage:
Discussion of current barriers – e.g. storage technologies frequently do not fit naturally into existing regulatory frameworks as they provide value across different portions of the market
© OECD/IEA 2012
Analytical capabilities
© OECD/IEA 2012
Overall ETP modelling framework
Supply side:TIMES – Energy system least cost optimization model
Demand sideSplit into three sectoral models: Transport (MoMo), Industry
and BuildingsAll demand side models are technology rich stock accounting
simulation tools which allow for sectoral projections of energy use, emissions and costs until 2050
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP modelling framework
Model horizon: 2009-2050 (2075) in 5 year periods
Primary energy
Conversion sectors
Final energy
End-use sectors
End-use service demands
Electricity production
Fossil
Renewables
Nuclear
Refineries
Synfuel plants
CHP and heat plants
etc.
ElectricityGasoline
DieselNatural
gasHeatetc.
Industry
Buildings
Transport
Material demands
Heating
Cooling
Passenger travel
Freight
etc.
ETP-TIMES model
MoMo model
Energy costs
Energy demand
© OECD/IEA 2012
Centralised hydrogen production
Pyrolysis/Gasifier/Reformer
with and without CCS
Sulfur/Iodine cycle
Electrolysis
Natural gasHeavy fuel oilCoalBiomass
NuclearSolar
Electricity
Decentralised hydrogen production
Electrolysis at fuel station
Reformer at fuel station
Electricity
Natural gas
H2 pipeline
H2 storage
H2 distribution
Natural gas pipeline
Natural gas use
H2 use in transport,industry, buildings,electricity generation,refining
Reformer/Gasifier at refinery
Natural gasHeavy fuel oil
H2 use in refining
H2 gas storage
LH2 storageH2 use in transport
Hydrogen supply options
max. 10%
© OECD/IEA 2012
ETP Mobility Model (MoMo)
It is a spreadsheet model of global transport energy use, emissions, safety, and materials use analysis of a multiple set of scenarios, projections to 2050 Based on hypotheses on GDP and population growth, fuel economy, costs, travel demand,
vehicle technology shares
World divided in 29 regions, incl. a good number of specific countries USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Korea, China, India The model is suitable for handling regional and global issues
It contains a large amount of data on technology and fuel pathways full evaluation of the life cycle GHG emissions cost estimates for new light duty vehicles estimates for fuels costs and fuel distribution infrastructure section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing
It is based on the "ASIF" framework:Activity (passenger travel) * Structure (travel by mode, load factors) * Energy Intensity = Fuel use
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle stock in 2DS and variants
2DS passenger transport integrates technological and behavioural aspects: Avoid/Shift/Improve
ETP 2012 discussed different technology portfolios with respect to energy use, emissions and costs based on varying the shares of FCEVs vs. PHEVs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel demand by scenario and fuel type
To reach the emission target, in the 2DS energy use in the road transport sector needs to be reduced by almost 50% compared to the 4DS, going back to 2010 levels whilst vehicle stock is more than doubling
The increased use of FCEVs can liberate more biofuels for use in other transport sectors
© OECD/IEA 2012
State of the art
© OECD/IEA 2012
Literature review
Literature list see ETP 2012 Recently reviewed:
NREL FCEV Demonstration Project FC stack lifetime seems main issue (2000h ~ 40,000 – 80,000km)
FCH-JU/McKinsey bus study Leaves a lot of open questions with respect to results and methodology
NREL Renewable Energy Futures Study Interesting levels of curtailment at various rates of variable renewable energy
penetration: At 90% RES (~60% VARres) 140 TWh electricity are might be curtailed annually
NAS - Transition to alternative vehicles and fuels “Fuel cells, batteries, biofuels, low-GHG production of hydrogen, carbon capture and
storage, and vehicle efficiency should all be part of the current R&D strategy. It is unclear which options may emerge as the more promising and cost-effective.”
© OECD/IEA 2012
Kick-off meeting and Europe WS
On June 9/10 IEA hosted kick-off meeting and Europe WS in ParisVehicle technology is mature, market is neededStrong need to built upon existing studiesStrong desire to focus on qualitative analysisNo common idea on infrastructure development nor how a
“final” H2 T&D and retail system could look likeCosts of renewable H2 are a major challenge for applications
in all sectors - economical only with very low electricity costsNiche markets for electrolysers might emerge in the near
future in the control power segmentCareful classification and distinction between H2 energy
storage applications and energy service
© OECD/IEA 2012
Input data review
In November we sent a compilation of input data for review to the Hydrogen Roadmap steering group
The data contained assumptions on:FCEV Stock & salesTechnology component cost and learning ratesFCEV costsVehicle fuel economy
© OECD/IEA 2012
Preliminary results - FCEV costs
FCEV costs drop relatively quickly with sales if envisaged FC stack production costs can be achieved
0
10
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60
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45
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55
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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
FCEV
stoc
k m
illio
ns
Thou
sand
201
0 U
SD
Glider (USA)
Gasoline ICE (USA)
Gasoline HEV (USA)
HEV global average MSRP in 2011
Gasoline HEV Plug-in (USA)
Prius-PHV
Diesel ICE (USA)
Diesel HEV (USA)
CNG/LPG (USA)
H2 FCV (USA)
BEV (USA)
BEV global average MSRP in 2011
FCEV stock
© OECD/IEA 2012
Total cost of driving
TCO drop slower due to H2 generation and T&D cost Based on TCO “economic gap” analysis can be conducted
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Tota
l cos
t of d
rivin
g U
SD/k
m
FCEV
ICE
HEV
BEV
PHEV
FCEV stock
© OECD/IEA 2012
Example economic gap calculation
30% taxation of petroleum fuels TCO breakeven FCEV vs. hybrid around 2040 At 30% petroleum fuel taxation, annual FCEV „vehicle subsidy“
would peak at ~15% tax revenue
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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60
70
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
vehi
cles
Thou
sand
USD
FCEV stock millions
"Subsidy" per vehicle sold, thousand USD/veh
Annual share of "subsidy" on "tax"
© OECD/IEA 2012
Copper-plate storage potential 2DS
Combination of long-term investment decision/least cost energy system run and dispatch model run with 2050 fixed ES fleet
Storage results captures only time-wise mismatch between supply and demand
© OECD/IEA 2012
Long-term H2 electricity storage
300 MWel_out, 120h, 5 cycles/y LCOE highly senstive to:
Set-up of storage & cycle rate Investment cost electrolyzer/fuel cell, efficiency fuel cell
Break even with OCGT at ~300 USD/kW for FC if all other parameters fixed – Synergies with transport/large scale FC production?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
LCO
E U
SD/M
Wh
Seasonal Today
Seasonal Future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Short term H2 electricity storage
Electricity – to – electricity short term storage does not look very promising, even with optimistic cost assumptions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
H2 symetric PHS
LCO
E U
SD/M
Wh
Arbitrage Today
Arbitrage Future
© OECD/IEA 2012
Expectations & proceeding the workshop
© OECD/IEA 2012
WS expectations & structure
Agenda of the WS is very broad We will not have the time to go very much into technical
detailIdentification/prioritization of main technical/market
related/policy related issues for H2 applications in North American context
MobileStationaryStorage Industry?
Short presentations will start discussion in seven specific sessions
© OECD/IEA 2012
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