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© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au
The Hume Workforce Development Committee
Hume Regional Development Australia
Labour Market Snapshot
Workforce Planning Australia | March 2012
It’s all about the Evidence........
What is a Labour Market Scan?
The approach for developing the Labour Market Snapshots considered a range of information as shown by the graphic below:
2 |
The primary focus of the snapshots is on identifying Hume industry &
occupational growth trends.
The population, education &workforce participation levelsprovide context for regional
labour market analysis.
Level of
deta
il
Data Overview
Labour Market Data Sources
4 |
The Labour Market Snapshots drew on multiple data sources. These include:
• Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS):
o Census Data, 2006
o Labour force Surveys
o Industry reports
• DEEWR:
o Skills Shortages List
o Regional profile information
• Hume:
o Workforce Development Committee Report
o Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities
• Other:
o Skills Info Industry Reports
o Skills Victoria Enrolment data
o Monash CoPs Data on occupations
o Industry Skills Councils – Environmental Labour Market Scans
Quality and Limitations
The data challenges included:
1. Different definitions of industries / occupations between ABS, Industry Skills Councils and Monash.
– ‘Health Care and Social Assistance’ (ABS) vs Community Services & Health– Different terms used for occupations, ‘personal carers’ or ‘health aid’ etc.
2. Different Time periods
3. Old Data - ABS Census data is now 6 years old.
4. Lack of HUME region industry data particularly for industries where employers are predominantly private sector (e.g. manufacturing and Transport and Logistics)
5. Lack of regional Skills Shortage Data – DEEWR lists are at the State level
6. Changes in name and level of VET qualifications (training packages)
7. Poor sourcing of data – The data source and date were unclear
5 |
Limitations on trend analysis
When available the 2011 ABS Census data should be compared with 2006 data to build a picture of emerging and declining occupations in Hume.
Key data includes:• Industry employed by Age and LGA
• Occupation by Age and LGA
• Education Levels by Age and LGA
• Main good and Services provided by employer by LGA
• Hours worked by occupation and Age
6 |
Hume Labour Market
About Hume
• The Hume Region is comprised of four distinct and inter-connected sub regions that extend over 40,000 square kilometres of provincial northeast Victoria.
• The Region contains twelve local government areas (LGAs) and is characterised by a network of regional cities and centres located along major transport routes. There is no single dominant major regional city in the Hume Region.
• The four Hume sub regions are structured as follows: ― Central Hume: Alpine, Benalla, Mansfield and Wangaratta― Goulburn Valley: Greater Shepparton, Moira, Strathbogie and Campaspe― Lower Hume: Mitchell and Murrindindi― Upper Hume: Indigo, Towong and Wodonga
8 |
Source: The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010-2020, Skills Victoria.
Population profile
9 |
Towong6,343
Wodonga36,432
Alpine12,866
Mansfield7,972
Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary
Indigo16,111
Murrindindi13,505
Mitchell35,044
Strathbogie10,012
G Shepparton
Moira29,385
Wangaratta28,938
Benalla14,293
63,335
The total population of the Hume region is 274,236 people spread across 12 LGAs:
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Population Growth Projection
• Significant population growth is expected in Mitchell, Wodonga and Greater Shepparton
• A drop in population is expected in Towong, Murrindindi and Strathbogie
10 |
Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011
Workforce Participation Rates (Adult Population) by LGA
11 |
Towong72% (2006)
Wodonga75%(2006)
Alpine71% (2006)
Mansfield72% (2006)
Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary
Indigo68%(2006)
Murrindindi 69% (2006)
Mitchell70% (2006)
Strathbogie70% (2006)
G Shepparton
Moira71% (2006)
Wangaratta75%(2006)
Benalla73%(2006)
72%(2006)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Labour force (below 65) as percentage of total LGA population:
Unemployment Rate by LGA
12 |
Towong3.7% (2006)
Wodonga5.3% (2006)
Alpine4.6% (2006)
Mansfield4.3% (2006)
Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary
Indigo3.7% (2006)
Murrindindi 4.2% (2006)
Mitchell 4.8% (2006)
Strathbogie 4.4%(2006)
G Shepparton
Moira4.7% (2006)
Wangaratta4.6% (2006)
Benalla5.7% (2006)
6.0% (2006)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)
xxx (2011)Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Employment by LGA and Industry
13 |
• Retail Trade, Manufacturing & Health & Community Services are the largest employing industries in Hume.
• Greater Shepparton and Wodonga have the highest working population.
Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011
Difficult to fill Occupations
14 |
Occupations – Difficult to fill in North Eastern VictoriaBachelor and Higher VET VET and other
General Medical Practitioners Sales Reps
Early Childhood Teachers Bar Attendants and Baristas
Chefs* Truck Drivers*
Motor Mechanics* Sales Assistants (General)*
Reg Nurses* Motor Vehicle and Vehicle parts salespersons
Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers
Child carers
Real Estate Sales Agents* General Clerks*
Balers and Pastry Cooks Housekeepers
Source: DEEWR, North Eastern Victoria Priority Employment Area Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences (Aug 2011) (* Aug 2010)
Education
Percentage of Population with Higher Level Qualification
16 |
Hume Region BoundarySub-region BoundaryLocal Government Area (LGA) Boundary
Note: Higher Level Qualification= University degree level.
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Towong10%
Wodonga10%
Alpine11%
Mansfield11%
Indigo
14%
Murrindindi12%
Mitchell8%
Strathbogie9%
G Shepparton
Moira6%
Wangaratta10%
Benalla10%
9%
Highest level of Educational Attainment
17 |
Hume Highest Level of Educational Attainment
Level 20-24 (%) 25-29 (%) Total whole population(%)
Bachelor Degree or Above 7% 16% 10%
Adv Diploma/ Diploma/Certificate
27% 31% 23%
School Education 56% 43% 53%
Not Stated etc 8% 7% 12%
Source: ABS Census Data 2006
Hume VET Enrolments
18 |
Accommodation and Food ServicesAdministrative and Support Services
Agriculture, Forestry and FishingArts and Recreation Services
ConstructionEducation and Training
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste ServicesFinancial and Insurance Services
Health Care and Social AssistanceInformation Media and Telecommunications
ManufacturingMining
Other ServicesProfessional, Scientific and Technical Services
Public Administration and SafetyRental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
Retail TradeTransport, Postal and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000
20082011
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
• Construction, Health & Community Services, Manufacturing have seen significant increases in VET enrolments.
VET Enrolments Age Profile
• The majority of VET enrolments are in the 15-19 year old age group. This group has seen significant growth over the period to 2011.
19 |
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
20082011
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
Diversity of VET enrolments
• The diversity of enrolments has increased with greater numbers of CALD and indigenous students.
• Disabled enrolments has slightly declined.
20 |
Disabled CALD Indigenous0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
20082011
Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.
© Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au
Industry Specific Labour Market Scans
ManufacturingTransport & LogisticsHeath and Community Services
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Employment Overview• Over the last decade, employment in the
Manufacturing industry has decreased by 8.3% (86,000) Australia wide.
• In Hume Manufacturing employment is expected to decline over the period to 2016.
• There will be growth in Product Assemblers and other main employing occupations will remain steady to 2015-16.
23 |
National Manufacturing Employment (‘000)- 2001-2011
2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-616
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
20.5
21
Manufacturing Employment Hume
Struc Steel & Welding Trades
Supply & Distrib. Managers
Metal Fitters & Machinists
ICT Managers
Plastics Prod. Machine Ops
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
Manufacturing Occupations Hume
2010-12015-6
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Manufacturing Education Overview
• There has been an increase in VET enrolments for the industry in Hume (driven by Cert IV, III, II, I levels).
• There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 50-54 and 55-59 age groups.
• There has been an increase in the diversity of enrolments in Hume Manufacturing. The greatest increase has been in the proportion of CALD students.
24 |
Certificate I
Certificate II
Certificate III
Certificate IV
Diploma
020
040
060
080
010
0012
0014
0016
0018
00
Enrolment Course Level
20082011
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 and over
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 VET Enrolments Age
20082011
Indigenous Disabled CALD0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9% Diversity of Enrolments
20082011
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Workforce Planning Considerations
1. What are the occupations that will experience greatest growth / decline over the next 10 years?
2. What is driving the increase in VET course enrolments over the period 2008-2011 given Manufacturing is a declining industry?
3. What is driving the growth in VET course enrolments in mature aged workers (50-60 years)?
4. What is driving the increase in the diversity of course enrolments? Espcecially in the CALD students?
25 |
Transport & Logistics
Transport & Logistics Employment Overview
• National T & L Employment is projected to grow at 2.2% (stronger then all industries projection of 1.8%).
• T & L employment in Hume is expected to grow and level out over the period to 2015. (Average annual growth of 4%.)
• Gradual growth is expected in all T & L occupations (significant increase in truck drivers relative to other occupations).
27 |
Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011-15
2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-60
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3 T & L Employment Hume
Truck Drivers
Couriers & Postal Deliverers
Bus & Coach Drivers
Transport Services Managers
Forklift Drivers
Storepersons
Automobile Drivers
Sales Assistants (General)
Train & Tram Drivers
Supply & Distrib. Managers
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
T & L Occupations Hume
2010-12014-5
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Transport & Logistics Education Overview• There has been an increase in VET
enrolments in T & L in Hume. (Cert III and diploma level).
• There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 20-24 year old age groups.
• The diversity of enrolments has increased. The greatest increase has come from the proportion of CALD students.
28 |
Certificate I
Certificate II
Certificate III
Certificate IV
Diploma
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Enrolment Course Level
20082011
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 and over
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 VET Enrolments Age
20082011
Disabled Indigenous CALD0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6% Diversity of Enrolments
20082011
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Workforce Planning Considerations
1. What is driving growth stronger then the national average in the Hume Transport & Logistics industry? Have all factors been considered?
2. What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2011? o Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24?o Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.?o Decrease in driver VET enrolments against this trend? Changes to training package /
occupational requirements?
3. Are youth following a pathway in the industry? Starting in operational / administrative positions and transitioning to driver roles?
4. Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain truck drivers in the industry?
5. What factors are inhibiting youth age groups in the driver occupations? E.g. Insurance, cost, training etc.?
29 |
Health & Community Services
Health & Community Services Employment Overview
• National H & CS employment is forecast to grow by 4.7% over the next 5 years.
• Hume H & CS employment is expected to grow slightly and level out over the same period.
• There will be significant growth in Registered Nurses and Aged Carers. (All other occupations will generally remain steady).
31 |
2010-1 2011-2 2012-3 2013-4 2014-5 2015-60
5
10
15
20
25
Hume H & CS Employment
Registered Nurses
Child Carers
Receptionists
Kitchenhands
Welfare Support Workers
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Hume H & CS Occupations
2010-12015-6
Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011 to 2015
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Health & Community Services Education Overview
• There has been an increase in VET enrolments in H & CS in Hume. (Cert III and diploma level).
• There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 40-44 year old age groups.
• The diversity of enrolments has remained constant and only slightly increased.
32 |
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 and over
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
VET Enrolments Age
20082011
Advanced Diploma
Certificate II
Certificate III
Certificate IV
Diploma
020
040
060
080
010
0012
0014
0016
0018
0020
00
Enrolment Course Level
20082011
Disabled Indigenous CALD0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Diversity of Enrolments
20082011
Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria.Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011
Workforce Planning Considerations
1. What is driving growth on par or above the national average in the Hume Health & Community Services industry? Have all factors been considered?
2. What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2012? – Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24?– Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.?– Diversity of enrolments has remained stable. Are there any strategies in place to increase
diversity?
3. Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain nurses and aged carers in the industry?
4. Are there other smaller occupations that are showing growth at the local level?
5. Which occupations are employers reporting local skill shortages or recruitment difficulties?
6. What is the nature of the shortages/or difficulties? E.g. Are they seasonal? In pockets? For certain shifts or positions? Specific regions? Turnover related?
7. Are there clear pathways into these occupations and from these occupations to others?
33 |
34 |
Questions?
Contact Us
John Sheahan Julie Sloan Tyson Corrigan
General Manager Founder and Director of Strategy
Associate
(03) 9206 8004 (03) 9206 8002 (03) 9206 8010
Further details:
www.workforceplanning.com.au
About Workforce Planning Australia:Workforce Planning Australia is a division of MEGT (Australia) Limited.
Confidential – this document and the information contained in it are confidential and should not be used or disclosed in any way without our prior consent.
© Workforce Planning Australia, 2012