© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

Emissions de CO2 et objectifs climatiques

Pierre Friedlingstein

University of Exeter, UK

Plus many IPCC WG1 authors and GCP colleagues

Recent trends in anthropogenic CO2 emissions

Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Fossil Fuel and Cement Emissions

Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC in 2012 Projection for 2013 : 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC, 61% over 1990

2003-2012 average: 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC

Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)Source: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013

Emissions from Coal, Oil, Gas, Cement

Share of global emissions in 2012: coal (43%), oil (33%), gas (18%), cement (5%), flaring (1%, not shown)

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Absolute)

Top four emitters in 2012 covered 58% of global emissionsChina (27%), United States (14%), EU28 (10%), India (6%)

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

Top Fossil Fuel Emitters (Per Capita)

Average per capita emissions in 2012China is growing rapidly and the US is declining fast

Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

Historical Cumulative Emissions by Country

Cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement were distributed (1870–2012): USA (26%), EU28 (23%), China (11%), and India (4%) covering 64% of the total share

Cumulative emissions (1990–2012) were distributed USA (20%), China (18%), EU28 (15%), India (5%)Source: CDIAC Data; Le Quéré et al 2013; Global Carbon Project 2013

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Land-Use Change Emissions

Land-Use Change Emissions

Global land-use change emissions are estimated 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC during 2003–2012The data suggests a general decrease in emissions since 1990

2011 and 2012 are extrapolated estimatesSource: Le Quéré et al 2013; Houghton & Hackler (in review); Global Carbon Project 2013

Indonesian peat fires

Total Global Emissions

Total global emissions: 10.5 ± 0.7 GtC in 2012, 43% over 1990Percentage land-use change: 38% in 1960, 17% in 1990, 8% in 2012

Land use emissions in 2011 and 2012 are extrapolated estimatesSource: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Houghton & Hackler (in review); Global Carbon Project 2013

Observed Emissions and Emissions Scenarios

Emissions are on track for 3.2–5.4ºC “likely” increase in temperature above pre-industrialLarge and sustained mitigation is required to keep warming below 2ºC

Linear interpolation is used between individual data pointsSource: Peters et al. 2012a; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013

Cumulated CO2 emissionsand the 2°C target

Warming will persist for centuries

• Zero CO2 emissions lead to near constant surface temperature.

• A large fraction of climate change persists for many centuries.

• Depending on the scenario, about 15-40% of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere for 1000 yrs.

Cumulative carbon determines warming

• Peak warming is approximately proportional to cumulative (total) emissions.

• Transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions TCRE = Warming per 1000 PgC

Trajectory does not really matter

Warming is approximately proportional to cumulative emissions. More emissions sooner means less emissions later

RCP2.6

Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE)Estimated from many independent studies

TCRE best estimate is 0.8-2.5oC warming for 1000 GtC emission

Assessed likely range0.8-2.5°C

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2010

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2020

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2050

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2100

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions to 2100

To limit CO2-induced warming to likely below 2oC, cumulative CO2 emissions must be limited to 1000 GtC.

To limit anthropogenic warming to likely below 2oC, cumulative CO2 emissions must be limited to 800 GtC(when accounting for warming from non-CO2 forcing)

Cumulative emissions 1870–2013 are 550 ±60 GtC70% from fossil fuels and cement, 30% from land-use change

That leaves about 250 GtC for the future.

That’s about 25 years at the current emission level (10 GtC/yr)

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions above 10 GtC/yr in 2012, ~60% above 1990

Current rate of increase about 2% per year

CO2 represents, by far, the largest contributor to the anthropogenic radiative forcing (> 80%)

Global warming scales with cumulative CO2 emissions

Limiting global warming likely below 2°C requires emissions to stay below about 800 GtC since preindustrial.

550 GtC already emitted, 250 GtC left for the future…

© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

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