01 Keynote Speech_Prof. Tim Smith

8/3/2019 01 Keynote Speech_Prof. Tim Smith

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An International Perspective on

Integrated Coastal Area Management

Professor Tim SmithDirector, Sustainability Research Centre


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Inter-generational equity

Intra-generational equity

Poverty

Biodiversity

Waste

Consumption

Globalisation

Pollution

Water

Population


3/23

As for the future, your task is not to foresee itbut to enable it

Saint-Exupery, A de 1952, The Wisdom of the Sands, Hollis & Carter, London (UK Edition).

Antoine De Saint-Exupery


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Top-down

Fuelled by Tragedy of the Commons fears

Hardin 1968Hardin, G. 1968, The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, Vol. 162.

Traditional approaches to coastal management


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Adversarial modes of decision-making

Mismatches of jurisdictions, benefits, costs andimplementation

Subordination of public interest to a special interest

Lack of coordination and trust intra and inter

institutional silos Institutional inertia

Piecemeal or symptoms approaches to problems

Ineffective use of science

Inability to deal with complexity

The problems


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Linking ecological and social systems

Systems thinking & sustainability learning New governance arrangements

Collaborative partnerships & effective community engagement

Senge 1990; Gunderson Holling & Light 1995; Wondolleck & Yaffee 2000;Smith & Smith 2006; Tbara & Pahl-Wostl 2007

Senge, P. 1990, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Doubleday, New York.

Gunderson, L. H., Holling, C. S., and Light, S. S. (eds) 1995, Barriers and Bridges to Renewal of Ecosystems andInstitutions, Columbia University Press, New York.

Wondolleck, J. M. and Yaffee, S. L. 2000. Making Collaboration Work: Lessons from Innovation in Natural ResourceManagement, Island Press, Washington DC.

Smith TF & Smith DC. 2006, Learning Coastal Management, In Lazarow N, Souter R, Fearon R & Dovers S (eds.)Coastal Management in Australia, Coastal CRC, Brisbane, pp. 101-106.

Tbara J & Pahl-Wostl C 2007 Sustainability learning in natural resource use & management. Ecology & Society12(2)

Ways forward


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Ethical rationale: people should be involved in the decisions thataffect them

Substantive rationale: people may have unique contributions topublic decisions and peoples values and technical knowledge shouldhelp to inform the final decision

Pragmatic rationale: people that have contributed to and beeneducated by the decision-making process are more likely to support thedecision outcome and facilitate its implementation

Adapted from Korfmacher 2001

Korfmacher, K. S., 2001, The politics of participation in watershed modelling, Environmental Management,vol. 27, pp. 161-176

Reasons for community engagement


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Paradigm shifts

Management Governance


9/23

Smith et al. 2010 after Smith 2002

Evolution of coastal management


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Smith et al. 2010 after Smith 2002

Evolution of coastal management


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Complexity, uncertainty and high decision stakesleading to changes in:

The science-policy-community interface

Research approaches

Emerging context for coastal management

Typifies coastal management in the face of climate change


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Climate change: what we know

Hotter

Sea level rise

More extreme events:

More intense storms

More intense floods More intense storm surge


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Australia is a coastal nation

85% of Australias population reside within 50km of thecoastline

up to 247 600 existing residential buildings will be at

risk from sea inundation by 2100 under a sea-level risescenario of 1.1m*

* Climate Change Risks to Australias Coasts Report

Is it really that bad?


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Sea level rise is relatively easy ... its the extreme events

that are the major worry!

Is it really that bad?


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Some examples of different outcomes

North Queensland versus South East Queensland

Fatalities: North Queensland (cyclone Yasi) = 1

South East Queensland (floods) = >20

Brazil (floods) = >700

Japan versus Indonesia

Fatalities:

Japan (Tsunami and earthquake) = >20 000

Indonesia (Tsunami) = >200 000


16/23

Understanding vulnerabilityEg. increased temperature Eg. elderly

Eg. social networks

Adapted from Allen Consulting 2005, after IPCC 2001

Allen Consulting 2005 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of theEnvironment and Heritage, Canberra, Australia.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). In: McCarthy, J., Caziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D. & White,K. (eds.) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Past science focus

exposure sensitivity

Adaptive capacityPotential harm

Vulnerability


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Drivers of climate change impacts

Climate change drivers:

Wind, sea level rise, rainfall, temperature

Other drivers: Population movements (eg. migration)

Population characteristics (eg. education)

Economic conditions (eg. ability to raise funds)

Legislative and policy frameworks


18/23

Coastal Population Growth Projections

Australian sea change regions

(local government area, State)

Projected

population change

(2002 to 2022)

Projected

population in

2022

Sunshine Coast, Queensland 80% increase 450,000

Surf Coast, Victoria 71% increase 30,572

Douglas Shire, Queensland 65% increase 17,365

Augusta-Margaret River, Western Australia 64% increase 16,513

Smith and Thomsen 2008, adapted from ABS 2001, and QDIP 2008

Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. (2008) Understanding Vulnerabilities in Transitional Coastal Communities, InWallendorf, L., Ewing, L., Jones, C. and Jaffe, B. (eds.) Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008,

April 13-16, Hawaii: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 980-989.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) Population Projections by SLA (ASGC 2001), 2002-2022. Canberra:Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing.

Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QDIP) (2008) Sunshine Coast population andhousing fact sheet. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, February 2008.


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Population at risk in South East Queensland

Risk of inundation from a 1-in-100 year storm surge event:

Current risk270 000 people (10% of current population)

Risk in 2030 without population growth

378 000 people

Risk in 2030 with projected population growth of 60%

616 000 people

This material was prepared by Xiaoming Wang, Mark Stafford Smith, Ryan McAllister, Anne

Leitch, Steve McFallan, Seona Meharg of CSIROs Climate Adaptation Flagship, based onresearch in the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative, analysis ofreadily available information and expert knowledge to provide a realistic assessment of theissues covered.


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From planning to implementation

Coastal

strategy

Effective

Implementation

Adaptive

Capacity


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Institutional complexityWet Tropics WorldHeritage Area

Freehold Land

ProvincialBoundary

Grazing Land,leasehold

Regional Coastal

Management Plan

Source: Jenny Bellamy

EnvironmentallyRelevant Activity: EPA

Major Rock Wall

Voluntary ConservationAgreement

Wetland: Code of Practicefor sustainable CaneGrowing

Declared Fish HabitatArea

Fish HabitatCode of Practice

Works in tidallyaffected areas

Bed/banks River

Marine Plants

Recreation AreaManagement Act

Coastal ControlDistrict

Wetland

Voluntary ConservationAgreement

Sugar Cane: SugarIndustry Act


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Nested approach to coastal management

ICAM Conservation agendas

Development agendas

Economic growth agendas

International agendas

Equity agendas


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Summary comments

Approaches to coastal management are continuing to

rapidly evolve Climate change will exacerbate existing coastal

management challenges

Institutions for ICAM need to be adaptive but alsomainstreamed

Coastal management is achieved through social processes

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01 Keynote Speech_Prof. Tim Smith

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