040712 Private Banking - Def

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PRIVATEBANKING

Where Banking Meets Investment

Eduardo MartnezPatricio Novales

Soraya Snchez


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Index


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Introduction

Source: Offshore Company India Services.

Investing in

Stocks


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Investing in Bonds

Source: COFACE: Venezuela Country Risk.

Risk

Mayor oil gasand miningresouces.

Rally of 30%since October.

Possible politicalchange.

CADIVI

SITME

BONDS


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Source: Bloomberg. Miguel Octavio; Venezuelan economist and blogger.


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Source: Economtrica.

Prices


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Source: COFACE: Chile Country Risk. Bloomberg.

Risk

Developingcountry.

Abundant

naturalresources.

Good businessenvironment.


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Source: Bloomberg.


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Source: COFACE: Germany Country Risk. Bloomberg.

Risk

Solid industrialbase.

Competitiveness

and weaksensitivity toexchange rates.

R&D.


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Source: Bloomberg.

The German Government Bond issuanceis considered a gold standard or

benchmark in Europe (even after thecreation of the Euro).


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Commodities

Discussion of the supposed commodity "supercycle"tends to focus more on the "super" and less on the

"cycle.This one could turn in 2014.The currentcommodity supercycle can be dated to 1999. Since then,the S&P GSCI index has risen fivefold (WSJ ,14-3-2012)

Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303717304577277621046368962.html


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30% of the portfolio

Commodities


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Sources: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-commodities-outlook-2011-12http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-commodity-outlook-2012-3Rabobank Report: Outlook 2012 Down, but not out, Commodity research, January 2012.

Choice 2012-13: Live CattleChicago Mercantile Exchange

Live Cattle: Futures

US Dollar Cents/Pound

Date High Low Last

Apr'12 118.325 118.325 118.325

Jun'12 115.825 115.825 115.825Aug'12 118.475 118.475 118.475

Oct'12 123.975 123.975 123.975

Dec'12 125.975 125.975 125.975

Feb'13 126.825 126.825 126.825Apr'13 127.725 127.725 127.725

Jun'13 124.800 124.800 124.800

Aug'13 125.150 125.150 125.150
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEV12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEZ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEG13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEG13http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEZ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEV12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEQ12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEM12http://futures.tradingcharts.com/intraday/LEJ12


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Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.htmlLondon Bullion Market Association 2012 Forecast, January 2012.

Choice 2012: Gold

We still anticipate significant annual increases in gold and silverprices in 2012 from strong investment demand (Morgan Stanley

report, 1-18-2012) All Forecast contributors expect gold to increase in 2012 by atleast 10%. () hit record highs again this year, with a predictedaverage high of $2,055 (London Bullion Market Association 2012Forecast)

Analyst Name 2012 High 2012 Low 2012 Average

William Adams $2,230 $1,500 $1,785Daniel Brebner $2,100 $1,545 $1,825Bayram Dincer $1,950 $1,450 $1,770Philip Klapwijk $2,005 $1,530 $1,760

Martin Murenbeeld $2,125 $1,450 $1,835

Eddie Nagao $1,800 $1,300 $1,525

Ross Norman $2,100 $1,590 $1,765Frederic Panizzutti $2,120 $1,550 $1,808Thorsten Proettel $1,950 $1,220 $1,640

Jeffrey Rhodes $1,975 $1,465 $1,727James Steel $2,050 $1,450 $1,850Anne-LaureTremblay

$2,100 $1,500 $1,775

*Edel Tully $2,500 $1,400 $2,050Matthew Turner $2,100 $1,425 $1,782

Bhargava Vaidya $1,900 $1,440 $1,600

Wolfgang Wrzesniok $2,010 $1,425 $1,750

Averages $2,055 $1,443 $1,766
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577167913292060748.html


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Source: Nordic Metals & Mining, 5 October 2011, Nordea Equity Research.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/index.htm

Choice 2013: Base metals

US$/tonne London Metal Exchange

price,

4-4-2012

Expected 2013*(London Metal Exchange+Nordea+ Morgan Stanley

average)

Copper 8.451,50 8.500

Aluminum 2.059,50 2.500

Nickel 18.035,00 21.000


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USARating: AA+

Outlook:Negative

Stocks NordiccountriesRating: AAA

Outlook:

Stable

GermanyRating: AAA

Outlook:Stable

CanadaRating: AAA

Outlook:Stable

UKRating: AAA

Outlook:Stable

AustraliaRating: AAA

Outlook:Stable

Source: S&Ps credit ratings for each country http://chartsbin.com/view/1177


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USA CANADA GERMANY

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

GDP growth % 1.53 1.78 2.54 2.5 1.95 2.50 2.72 1.27 1.50

Inflation % 2.99 1.21 0.90 2.56 2.025 2.037 2.24 1.30 1.60

Unemployment(%)

9.09 9.04 8.54 7.65 7.70 7.24 6.00 6.15 6.39

Current account(%Balance)

-3.10 -2.12 -1.71 -3.33 -3.81 -3.51 5.04 4.92 4.78

Public Debt (%GDP)

100 105 108 34.9 36.8 37.0 82.6 81.9 80.9

Source: FMI http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html

Macro data


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AUSTRALIA UNITED KINGDOM NORDICCOUNTRIES

(SWEDEN)

2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

GDP growth % 1.80 3.32 3.42 1.14 1.58 2.37 4.39 3.85 3.50Inflation % 3.54 3.32 3.47 4.51 2.44 2.00 3.00 2.50 1.48

Unemployment(%)

4.97 4.80 4.80 7.75 7.81 7.76 7.37 6.57 5.77

Current account

(%Balance)

-2.18 -4.67 -5.40 -2.72 -2.30 -1.68 5.83 5.27 5.07

Public Debt (%GDP)

22.82 23.82 22.96 80.76 84.77 85.95 36.03 32.59 29.16

Source: FMI http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html

Macro data


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NASDAQ 100OMX STOCKHOLM

INDEX

DAX INDEX ASX LIMITED FTSE 100

INDEX

Source: www.prorealtime; www.bloomberg.com

26.26%*

28.80

%*

11.11%*

12.48%*

22.2%

*

*Last six months evolution

Indexes (2009-2011)


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P/E ROE DIV.YIELD

PRICE TOBOOKVALUE

NETPROFITMARGIN

DEBT /EQUITY

Services(Wholesales)

16,8 20,6% 3,5% 5,4 2,3% 78,1

Industrial Goods21,5 13,6% 2,31% 7,6 7,0% 44,7

ConsumerGoods (brewer)

17,9 20,0% 1,4% 12 20,3% 33,2

Utilities (gas) 22 11,7% 4,1% 3 8,2% 50,1Technology(appl software)

17,5 24,9% 1,7% 10,5 23,2% 29,3

Source:http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

Sector analysis


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P/E ROE DIV.YIELD

PRICE TOBOOKVALUE

NETPROFITMARGIN

DEBT /EQUITY

Financial

(insurance)

11,3 10,4% 2,4% 1,2 7,2% 35,5

Basic materials(agriculturalchemicals)

19,3 17,9% 1,7% 4,6 15,2% 47,1

Conglomerates 15,20 20,50% 2,05% 18,9 13,10% 123,9

Healthcare(Drugmanufacturer)

17,2 15,8% 4,4% 19,9 16,7% 72,2

Source:http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

Sector analysis


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SAP is theleader inenterpriseapplication

software.Founded in1972, SAPapplicationsand services

enable morethan 183,000customersworldwide tooperate

profitably,

IS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009Total rev 14,233 14 12,464 17 10,672

Total op ex 9,352 -5 9,873 22 8,084

Op profit 4,881 88 2,591 0.1 2,588

Profit 3,439 89 1,813 4 1,750

BS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009

T current assets 9,669 36 7,143 36 5,255

T non currentasset

13,556 -1 13,696 69 8,119

T assets 23,225 11 20,839 56 13,374

T currentLiabilities

6,266 22 5,153 51 3,416

T liabilities 10,518 -4.5 11,015 126 4,883Source: www.sap.com

SAP


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SAPCF 2011 % 2010 % 2009

CFO 3,775 29 2,922 -3 3,019

CFI -1,226 -69 -3,994 1235 -299

CFF -1,176 2,520 -2,170

(IFRS) 2011 2010 %

Software rev 3,971 3,265 22%

Soft. Services rev.11,319 9,794 16%

Operating profit 4,881 2,591 88%

Operating margin 34.3% 20.8% 65%

Earnings per 2.89 1.52 90Source: www.sap.com; http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAP:GR

SAP INDUSTRY

Curr. R. 1.54 2.9Quick R. 1.54 2.8

NWC 4340

Solvency 45%

Debt/Eq. 83% 80%

FCFE 2,844


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SAPB Market

CapRevenue Gross

marginOpmargin

P/E Dividendyield

SAP 63.35 14.23 71.25% 34.30% 18.41 0.90%

IBM software 181.85 79.97 46.90% 20.44% 16.03 1.4%

MicrosoftCorporation

203,36 54 76.38% 38.04% 11.72 2.5%

Oracle

corporation

110.12 27.72 78.31% 37.52% 15.46 0.80%

Industry 187.87 84.95 71.27% 8.00% 27.30 1.7%

Source:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=SAP+Competitors


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SAP

Source: www.Prorealtime.com

2009-2011=30%

23/03/2012

53.5

19/09/2011

35.8

06/06/2000

61.11

04/10/2002

10.52


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BAYER AG

BAYER AG isa globalenterprisewith corecompetencie

s in thefields ofhealth care,nutrition andhigh-tech

materials.

Die Brse-Frankfurt

Source: http://www.bayer.de/de/Homepage.aspx

IS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009Total rev 36,528 4 35,088 12.6 31,168

Total op ex 32,379 0.06 32,358 14.9 28,162

Op profit 4,149 51.9 2,730 -9.2 3,006

Profit 2,470 88.5 1,310 -3.6 1,359BS (M.) 2011 % 2010 % 2009

T current assets 20,068 9.5 18,318 7.8 16,993

T non currentassets

32,697 -1.5 33,188 -2.5 34,049

T assets 52,765 2.4 51,506 0.9 51,042

T currentLiabilities

13,390 28.9 10,835 20.7 8,973

T liabilities 33,494 2.71 32,610 1.6 32,091


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BAYER AG

CF 2011 % 2010 % 2009

CFO 5,060 -12 5,773 7.4 5,375

CFI -3,890 61 -2,414 60.8 -1501

CFF -2,213 -3,230 -3,246

(IFRS) 2011 2010 %

Operating profit 4,149 2,730 51.9

Operating margin 11.36 7.78 46

Earnings pershare

2.47 1.301 89.8

Dividend share 1.65 1.50 10

BAYER INDUSTRY

Curr. R. 1.5 2.15

Quick R. 0.9 1.85

NWC 9,372

Solvency 22.1%

Debt/Eq 60.8% 67.8%

FCFE 2,002Source: Bloomberg (25/03/2012); www.bayer.de


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BAYER AGB. Market

CapRevenue Gross

marginOperatingmargin

P/E Dividendyield

BAYER AG 44 36 51.2 11.36 18.05 3.11

JOHNSON &

JOHNSON

135 48.6 67.2 24.8 18.7 3.4

DOWCHEMICAL

31 45 18.8 8.8 14.9 2.9

PFIZER 127 50.536 75.7 23.2 19.4 3.9

INDUSTRY 40.7 48 53.9 18.9 17.2 4.4

Source: Bloomberg (25/03/2012)


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BAYER AG

Source: www.prorealtime.com

2009-

2011=50%

22/12/200035.8

17/03/200

310.20

19/09/20

1135.8

28/03/201253.3


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Developing Countries

Source: S&Ps credit ratings for each country http://chartsbin.com/view/1177World Bank, 2012 Economic Outlook

TAIWANRating: AA-

Outlook:Stable

BRASILRating: BBB

Outlook:Stable

10% of theportfolio

Top profitable Emerging countries ETFs 2012

(in yellow top investments in Brazil and Taiwan):Fund Name Overall Rating Risk Grade

WisdomTree Emg Mkts Eqty Inc Fd C+ B-

PowerShares DWA Emg Mkts Tech Lead C+ C+

WisdomTree Emg Mkts SmCap Div Fd C+ C+

SPDR S&P Emerging Latin America ETF C+ B-

SPDR S&P International Div ETF C+ B-

SPDR S&P Emerg Middle East&Africa C+ B-

Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF C B-

SPDR S&P Emerging Markets ETF C B-

PowerShares Emg Mkts Infrastructure C C+

2012-2014 Average TAIWAN BRAZIL

GDP +4.8% +4%

INFLATION +1.9% +4.5%

FISCAL DEFICIT -1.9% -2.9%

SECTOR GDP 10% *14%
http://chartsbin.com/view/1177http://chartsbin.com/view/1177http://chartsbin.com/view/1177


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Taiwan: IT sector

BloombergOCDE Brazil Country Report,

$ billionNET

INCOMEREVENEU

RATING(Fitch)

Outlook

Taiwan SemiconductorManufacturing

Co(Semiconductor)$5.55 $13.98 AAA Stable

HTC Corporation(Telecom)

$1.673 $11.95 AAA Stable

FOXCONN(Electronicmanufacturing)

$1.3 $36.33 AA+ Stable


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Brazil: Infrastructure RelatedIndustry

BloombergOCDE Brazil Country Report,www.oecd.org/country/0,3731,en_33873108_36016449_1_1_1_1_1,00.html

Toocompanies

$ billionNET

INCOMEREVENEU

RATING(Fitch)

Outlook

Vale SA (Metals/Mining) 4.57 14.85 BBB+ Stable

CSN SA ( Steel & Cement) 1.9 8.8 BBB- Positive

Itausa SA(Conglomerate:Real State, metals)

2.5 30.1 AA- Stable


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Conclusions

Uncertainty and volatility ruleglobal markets.

Hard researching effort ahead forinvestors trying to play safe.

Under a constant revision ofnumbers as challenges remain.


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Money Never Sleeps

Gordon Gekko.


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Sources Henkel Garca. Analyst and Finance Instructor.

President of Visin Inversin and Director ofEconometrica, IE C.A.Skype interview. Interviewed: 10/03/12.

COFACE. Country Risk and Economic Research.Available:http://www.coface.com/Access date: 11/03/12.

Offshore Company India Services. Available:http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/privateAccess date: 10/03/12.
http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/private-banks.htmlhttp://www.coface.com/http://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/private-banks.htmlhttp://www.incorporation-offshore-saves-wealth.com/private-banks.htmlhttp://www.coface.com/http://www.coface.com/


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Banco Central de Chile. Available:http://www.bcentral.cl/index.asp

Acces date: 20/03/12.

Reuters.

CIA The World Factbook.

Live cattle prices can they rise again in 2012.

Available:www.agrimoney.com/feature/live-cattle-prices---can-they-rise-again-in-2012--131.html

Access date: 4/04/12
http://www.bcentral.cl/index.asphttp://www.bcentral.cl/index.asphttp://www.bcentral.cl/index.asphttp://www.bcentral.cl/index.asp


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http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/ind_index.html

www.sap.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAP:GR

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=SAP+Competitors

http://www.bayer.de/de/Homepage.aspx

Bloomberg platform

S&Ps credit ratings for each country. Available:http://chartsbin.com/view/1177

FMI data http://www.expansion.com/economia/datosmacro.html

www.prorealtime

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