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Developing Ecosystem Services Science for Policy Developing Ecosystem Services Science for Policy Needs in the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA:Needs in the Willamette Basin, Oregon, USA:

A Place-Based StudyA Place-Based Study

Linking Human Well-Being with Ecosystem Services

ACES Meeting – Naples, FL 09 Dec 2008

Dixon H. Landers, Robert McKane, Jana ComptonRene Brooks, Paul Rygiewicz, John Bolte and ConnieBurdick. USEPA, Western Ecology DivisionCorvallis, OR USA

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The EPA Challenge:The EPA Challenge:

Change the economic and human Change the economic and human well-being foundation for well-being foundation for

environmental decision-makingenvironmental decision-making

Current Investment:

200 Scientists

~$62 million dollars supporting research

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Ecological Services Research Program Ecological Services Research Program Goals:Goals:

Long-Term Goal 1: National policy makers will have the tools Long-Term Goal 1: National policy makers will have the tools and technologies to develop scientifically-defensible and technologies to develop scientifically-defensible assessments of the state of our nation’s ecosystems and the assessments of the state of our nation’s ecosystems and the effectiveness of existing national programs and policieseffectiveness of existing national programs and policies

Long-Term Goal2: States and tribes apply improved tools and Long-Term Goal2: States and tribes apply improved tools and methods to protect and restore their valued ecological methods to protect and restore their valued ecological resourcesresources

Long-Term Goal 3: Decision-makers understand the Long-Term Goal 3: Decision-makers understand the importance of ecosystem services and make informed, importance of ecosystem services and make informed, proactive management decisions that consider a range of proactive management decisions that consider a range of alternative outcomesalternative outcomes

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UsesUses Setting policies and guidelines:Setting policies and guidelines:

• EPA often seeks to promote its mission through a variety of policy instruments that do not have the legal force of national rules. .

Quantifying benefits for national rule-making: Quantifying benefits for national rule-making: • The Office of Management and Budget establishes data requirements

needed to assess the benefits and costs associated with these rules. Developing environmental GDP accounts or other Developing environmental GDP accounts or other

environmental indicators: environmental indicators: • In recent years, there have been numerous calls for establishing

environmental accounts within our national Gross Domestic Product accounts.

Acting as a catalyst for market innovations: Acting as a catalyst for market innovations: • In some cases, EPA seeks to engage the private sector directly in its

efforts to improve environmental conditions.

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EPA Ecological Services Research EPA Ecological Services Research Program - Place-Based StudiesProgram - Place-Based Studies

Southwest

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Why Place-Based Research?Why Place-Based Research?

Work with actual, interested end-point users of research Work with actual, interested end-point users of research tools to assist with design and implementationtools to assist with design and implementation

Confront contextual social and economic forces, Confront contextual social and economic forces, challenges and solutionschallenges and solutions

Test models with appropriate data types and coveragesTest models with appropriate data types and coverages Develop a manageable approach to scalingDevelop a manageable approach to scaling Enlist “local” experts with knowledge tailored to the Enlist “local” experts with knowledge tailored to the

question and issuesquestion and issues Compare Compare likelike and contrast and contrast differentdifferent approaches to approaches to

similar issues among PBPssimilar issues among PBPs Synthesize knowledge derived from the above activities Synthesize knowledge derived from the above activities

to determine what level of information is ADEQUATE for to determine what level of information is ADEQUATE for decision makers to project ES at a national scale.decision makers to project ES at a national scale.

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Willamette Basin:Willamette Basin:

A Place Based StudyA Place Based Study

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Willamette Ecosystem Willamette Ecosystem Service District Service District

65% Forest65% Forest 20% Ag; 11% Urban20% Ag; 11% Urban 4% Riparian Wetland4% Riparian Wetland Not all forests are equalNot all forests are equal

• High elevation (N sensitive or N retentive?)• Broadleaf vs. Conifer

Portland, OR

LandcoverLandcover

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Why the Willamette? Why the Willamette?

Willamette “Ecosystem Service District” provides a broad range of Land-Willamette “Ecosystem Service District” provides a broad range of Land-Use/Land-Cover, stressors, gradients, and diverse, linked settingsUse/Land-Cover, stressors, gradients, and diverse, linked settings

WED Alternative Futures research experience (mid 1990’s) = rich data sets, WED Alternative Futures research experience (mid 1990’s) = rich data sets, experienced researchers, potential collaborators (NRCS, USACE, USDA-experienced researchers, potential collaborators (NRCS, USACE, USDA-FS, USGS, OWOW, etc.) FS, USGS, OWOW, etc.)

Well Connected Research and Regulatory Entities now Working toward Well Connected Research and Regulatory Entities now Working toward future Ecosystem Service trading (Region X)future Ecosystem Service trading (Region X)

Multiple related Star Grant recipients (OSU, OU, PSU)Multiple related Star Grant recipients (OSU, OU, PSU) Willamette Partnership (State Non-Profit); OWEBWillamette Partnership (State Non-Profit); OWEB Trading Scenario for Temperature (riparian wetland ecosystem service) Trading Scenario for Temperature (riparian wetland ecosystem service)

rapidly developing – EPA Funding with Region X oversightrapidly developing – EPA Funding with Region X oversight ORD Multi-Year Plan – Ecosystem Research Program: provides explicit ORD Multi-Year Plan – Ecosystem Research Program: provides explicit

context context

CLIMATE OF OPPORTUNITY

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Overall Goal:Overall Goal:The W-ESP seeks to provide a scientifically based decision support system for The W-ESP seeks to provide a scientifically based decision support system for valuing and projecting ecological services resulting from alternative management valuing and projecting ecological services resulting from alternative management decisionsdecisions

Objectives:

Quantify ecosystem services, including their distribution and status.

Provide models to predict responses of ecosystem services to probable future conditions.

Identify critical knowledge gaps in our understanding of how ecosystem services are provided.

Evaluate net benefits of bundled ecosystem services and tradeoffs among management actions that affect these services.

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Translating services into quantifiable spatial metrics

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Avoiding Unintended Consequences

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Willamette Conceptual Model: ALL LAND USES

$ $ $ $ $ Non-Economic Value Stakeholder Prioritization

Sediment Regulation

Water Quantity

Water Quality

Carbon Sequestration

Ag & Forest Products

Fire Regulation

Fish & Wildlife

ExtractiveEnergy, Minerals, Rx

RecreationSense of

PlaceAir QualityBiodiversity

GHG Regulation

STRUCTURESpecies, Food Webs,

Spatial Organization, Soils

Terrestrial Ecosystem Aquatic Ecosystem

FUNCTIONCarbon, Nutrient & Water Cycling;

Soil Formation & Degradation, Competition, Reproduction, Mortality, etc

STRUCTURESpecies, Food Webs,

Spatial Organization, Benthic & Water Column

FUNCTIONCarbon, Nutrient & Water Cycling;

Sediment Dynamics, Groundwater InteractionsCompetition, Reproduction, Mortality, etc

Agricultural Land Use

Forest Land Use

Riparian Land Use

Water Quality & Quantity

GCC Mitigation

Fish & Wildlife

Energy & Minerals Wilderness

Recreation & Tourism

GlobalChange

ChemicalsLand, Air, Water

WaterUse

Land Cover

Environmental Stressors / Drivers Anthropogenic Stressors / Drivers

Land Use

ClimateSoils & Hydro-geomorphology Fire Hunting &

FishingOther

ExtractivePests & invasives

ΔΔ Stressors / Stressors /DriversDrivers

ΔΔ Stressors / Stressors /DriversDrivers

ΔΔ Ecosystem Ecosystem(Quantitative ERFs)*(Quantitative ERFs)*ΔΔ Ecosystem Ecosystem

(Quantitative ERFs)*(Quantitative ERFs)*

ΔΔ Ecosystem EcosystemServicesServices

(Quantitative EPFs)**(Quantitative EPFs)**

ΔΔ Ecosystem EcosystemServicesServices

(Quantitative EPFs)**(Quantitative EPFs)**

ΔΔ Value Value (of ES Bundle)*** (of ES Bundle)***

ΔΔ Value Value (of ES Bundle)*** (of ES Bundle)***

Ada

ptiv

e M

anag

em

ent

ΔΔ Human HumanWell-being***Well-being***

ΔΔ Human HumanWell-being***Well-being***

DecisionsDecisionsPolicy, Regulatory, Policy, Regulatory,

Economic, Political…Economic, Political…

DecisionsDecisionsPolicy, Regulatory, Policy, Regulatory,

Economic, Political…Economic, Political…

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Inventory of Current Ecosystem Services: Inventory of Current Ecosystem Services: Approach and Knowledge Gaps Approach and Knowledge Gaps

1.1. Identify key ecosystem services (ES) Willamette Identify key ecosystem services (ES) Willamette Ecosystem Services DistrictEcosystem Services District

2.2. Determine appropriate units for ESDetermine appropriate units for ES

3.3. Develop an approach to inventory, “scale” and map ESDevelop an approach to inventory, “scale” and map ES

4.4. Identify knowledge gaps in assessing ESIdentify knowledge gaps in assessing ES

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EffectsEffects

Cross Place Based Coordination on ESCross Place Based Coordination on ES

Models

Wildlife Populations

Plant Communities

Biogeochemistry

Hydrology

StressorsStressors

Stressors Land Use

• Forest• Agriculture• Riparian • Urban

Global Change• Climate• CO2

• N deposition Chemicals

• Fertilizers• Pesticides

Terrestrial Services Ag products Forest products C sequestration Nutrient regulation GHG regulation Habitat quality Wildlife populations

Aquatic Services Water quality Water quantity Fish & waterfowl

NutrientCycling

Productivity

Biodiversity

WaterQuantity

WaterQuality

CarbonStorage

Sense ofPlace

?? Social Scientist ??

WillametteESRP-Wide “Common” Services

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Forcing Variables (Stressors)Forcing Variables (Stressors) Natural and anthropogenic factors affecting quantifiable changes in

the status (e.g. amounts & fluxes) of ecosystem processes

ERF: Ecological Response FunctionERF: Ecological Response Function The response of an ecosystem service to a particular forcing variable

ETF: Ecological Trade-off FunctionETF: Ecological Trade-off Function The relationships between two (or more) ecosystem services in

response to the same forcing variable (…and, eventually, multiple forcing variables)

Definition of Terms Used to Determine Definition of Terms Used to Determine Future Responses of Ecosystem Services toFuture Responses of Ecosystem Services to

Multiple Response VariablesMultiple Response Variables

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Socioeconomics

Valuation & Trading of Ecosystem Services

ERF Y-axis: Ecosystem Services• Food/fiber Yield• Carbon Sequestration • Water Quality• Water Quantity• GHG regulation (N2O, NOx, CH4 …)

ERF X-axis: Forcing Variables• Soils & Geology• Climate (Temp, Precip, Light, CO2)• Fertilization Practices• Tillage Practices• Cover Type (Species, Riparian Buffers…)• Many others…

ERF1 + ERF2

Tradeoff = ETF

N Fertilization

N E

xpor

tYield

N Export

Cro

p Y

ield

N Fertilization

Cro

p Y

ield

ERF1

Ecosystem Service vs. Forcing Variable = ERF

N Fertilization

N E

xpor

t

ERF2

Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework

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FertilizationFertilization

TillageTillage

Drought Index Drought Index

Str

eam

Nit

rate

Drought Index

ClimateClimate

Cro

p Y

ield

Soi

l Car

bon

Water Water QualityQuality

CarbonCarbonSequestrationSequestration

Food Food ProductionProduction

Str

eam

Nit

rate

N FertilizationN Fertilization

Cro

p Y

ield

Str

eam

Nit

rate

Tillage

N Fertilization

Soi

l Car

bon

Soi

l Car

bon

Tillage

Cro

p Y

ield

Tillage

Some Agricultural ERFs & ETFsSome Agricultural ERFs & ETFs• Read vertically to compare responses (ERFs) for a given service to 3 different stressorsRead vertically to compare responses (ERFs) for a given service to 3 different stressors

• Read horizontally to assess trade-offs (ETFs) among 3 services at any given stressor levelRead horizontally to assess trade-offs (ETFs) among 3 services at any given stressor level

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Models: Statistical and Process-BasedModels: Statistical and Process-Based

Synthesize & Scale Up Data Plots to Region, Days to Centuries

Plots, Stands Hillslopes, Catchments Basin, Regionsnobear.colorado.edu/IntroHydro/hydro.gif

Scaling Up Ecosystem Services – Using Biophyical ModelsScaling Up Ecosystem Services – Using Biophyical Models

N Fertilization

Cro

p Y

ield

Plot-Scale ERFs

Buffer Width

N E

xpor

t

Hillslope-Scale ERFs

Ag:Forest Area Ratio

N E

xpor

t

Basin-Scale ERFs

More Buffers

Deep flowpaths

Shallow flowpaths

Low % sand Less Buffers

??High % sand

?

Using nitrogen addition & export as an example…

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Issues of ScaleIssues of Scale

1. Spatial Extrapolation1. Spatial Extrapolation

Known Known

2. Decision Making and the 2. Decision Making and the Adequacy Adequacy of of Scientific UnderstandingScientific Understanding

e.g. Region to Tax Lote.g. Region to Tax Lot

Unknown

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Inventory and mapping the location and value of Ecosystem Services is an essential activity of W-ESP

W-ESP (Chan et al. 2006)

Develop an Develop an approach to approach to inventory inventory and map ESand map ES

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Modified from John Bolte, Oregon State University

Quantification and Valuation of Ecosystem

Services: apply indicators

reflecting quantityLandscape:

Spatial domain in which land

use changes and other

stressors are depicted Natural Change

Processes: Models of non-human change

Actions

Policies: Constraints and actions defining

land use management

decisionmaking

PolicySelection

Clients: making multiple decisions

by selecting policies

responsive to their objectives

Landscape Feedback

Decision Support System – General StructureDecision Support System – General Structure

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Hypothetical ecosystem service values:Bundled by land use in the Willamette ESD

*Relative value could be a rate, say kg/ha/yr, or represent economic or social value.

Rel

ativ

e va

lue*

0

ForestNative

GrasslandHeadwater

WetlandRiparian

forestVegetated

bufferRip Rap

slopeRow crop

Grass seed Urban

Nutrient removal

Temperature regulation

Carbon Sequestration

Habitat

Flood protection

Food & Goods

Ecosystem Services

+

-

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Limitations Regarding ImplementationLimitations Regarding Implementation

Disciplinary Needs:Disciplinary Needs:

Sociologist – Human Health and Well Being; Mediated ModelingSociologist – Human Health and Well Being; Mediated ModelingEconomist – Market and Non-Market ValuationEconomist – Market and Non-Market ValuationModelers – System Approaches and Scaling Modelers – System Approaches and Scaling

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End Product

Scaling and Aggregation

Under Alternative

Management ScenariosVegetated

buffer strip

Forest

Row crop

Livestock

SAV

Mangrove Wetland

Headwaterwetland

Rip Rap slope

Urban

Net Value of Services

Relative Ecosystem ServicesWithin an Ecosystem District

ManagementOption X

A B

C

Options

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Futures & Trading Analyses

Natural & Anthro- pogenic

Stressors

Past,Present

&Future

Riparian wetland ES

C-Sequestration

N-control

Critical habitat

Societal Response&

EPA Policy Actions

Place-Based Societal Issues & Values

Tradable EcosystemService Units

•Predicted climate change•Air pollution•Land use management•Population growth

Forcing Variables:Desired Outcomes: •Clean rivers

•Fish & Wildlife•Flood control•Timber& Crops•Wetlands

MappedEcosystemServices

Projected and Quantified Bundles of Ecosystem

Services

Ecosystem Structure & Functioning

ProductionPoolsDecompositionFlowsAg-/De-gradationLand-Water

Interactions

•Cost•Optimization•Market Forces•Valuation

Water provisioning

Water Quality ERFs ETFs

FutureProjections

Research Targeted to Develop Ecological Response Functions (ERF) and Ecological Trade-off Functions (ETF)

W-ESP Decision Support System

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Changes in land useChanges in land use PollutionPollution Climate changeClimate change Invasive speciesInvasive species OverexploitationOverexploitation OtherOther

Direct drivers (forcing variables) of ecosystem changeDirect drivers (forcing variables) of ecosystem change

World Resources Institute

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Collaborators and StakeholdersCollaborators and Stakeholders

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31Drought Index Drought Index

Str

eam

Nit

rate

Drought Index

ERFs, ETFs Have Many DimensionsERFs, ETFs Have Many DimensionsExample 1:Example 1: soil texture modifies the effects of the 3 stressors at soil texture modifies the effects of the 3 stressors at

leftleft

FertilizationFertilization

TillageTillage

Water Water QualityQuality

CarbonCarbonSequestrationSequestration

Food Food ProductionProduction

Str

eam

Nit

rate

Tillage TillageTillage

Cro

p Y

ield

Soi

l Car

bonLow Sand%

High Sand%

?High Sand%

Low Sand%

? ?

High Sand%

Low Sand%

ClimateClimate

Str

eam

Nit

rate

N FertilizationN Fertilization

Cro

p Y

ield

N Fertilization

Soi

l Car

bon

Soi

l Car

bon

Cro

p Y

ield

Low Sand%

High Sand%

?

Low Sand%

High Sand%

?

Low Sand%

High Sand%

?

High Sand%

Low Sand%

?

Low Sand%

High Sand%

?

Low Sand%

High Sand%

?

Toggle with

previous slide

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32Drought Index Drought Index

Str

eam

Nit

rate

Drought Index

ERFs, ETFs Have Many DimensionsERFs, ETFs Have Many DimensionsExample 2: the 3 stressors at left have interactive effectsExample 2: the 3 stressors at left have interactive effects

Water Water QualityQuality

CarbonCarbonSequestrationSequestration

Food Food ProductionProduction

Str

eam

Nit

rate

N Fertilization

Low Tillage

High Tillage

?

N Fertilization

Cro

p Y

ield

Low Tillage

High Tillage

?

?

Cro

p Y

ield

Low Drought Index

?

Cro

p Y

ield

Tillage

High Drought Index

?

High N Fert

Low N Fert

?

Soi

l Car

bon

High N Fert

Low N Fert

Str

eam

Nit

rate

?

Tillage

Low Drought Index

High Drought Index Soi

l Car

bon

?

Tillage

Low Drought Index

High Drought Index

N Fertilization

Soi

l Car

bon

High Tillage

Low Tillage

?FertilizationFertilization

TillageTillage

High N Fert

Low N FertClimateClimate

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By 2013 ERP will complete site-specific demonstration projects that illustrate how regional and local managers can use alternative future scenarios to proactively conserve and enhance ecosystem goods and services in order to benefit human well-being and to secure the integrity and productivity of ecological systems.

Ecosystem Research Program LTG 5

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Place Based Sites

Tampa Bay – warm humid, 5 or so small watersheds, rapid urbanization, unique estuarine habitat, and high recreational use.

Midwest – temperate, multi-state, bread basket, biofuel production and processing pressures, many unique habitats.

Pacific Northwest – cool moist, strong policy and planning element for sustainable economic growth, focus on riparian forest.

Coastal Carolinas – warm humid, wetlands loss and sea level rise, impacts to sensitive habitats and protected species.

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Provides opportunities to:

Test similar methods in different locations

Look at urban to rural gradient

Evaluate variety of stressors

Research ways to upscale results

Develop coupled ecological/economic modeling/tools

Reach out to larger audience

Working Across Multiple Locations

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Land Value

Recreation Aesthetics

PotableWater

Human HealthEnergy

Food/Fiber

Cultural

ExistenceValue Flood

Control

ClimateMitigation

Contribution to Well Being

NutrientCycling

Productivity BiodiversityWater

QuantityWaterQuality

CarbonStorage

Sense ofPlace

What are the common functions and services across places?

What are the likely contributions to human well being?

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Biogeochemical Biogeochemical CyclingCycling

Carbon pool storagesCarbon pool storages standing biomassstanding biomass

soil organic contentsoil organic content

Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration net primary productionnet primary production

nitrificationnitrification Grams nitrogen / unit Grams nitrogen / unit area / unit timearea / unit time

Denitrification (in Denitrification (in rivers, lakes, rivers, lakes, reservoirs, wetlands)reservoirs, wetlands)

microbial abundance; microbial abundance; oxidation rate, (see oxidation rate, (see Wolheim and others for Wolheim and others for proxies)proxies)

Habitat / refugiaHabitat / refugia

TerrestrialTerrestrial nature, location, quantity & nature, location, quantity & arrangementarrangement

Fresh waterFresh water nature, location, quantity & nature, location, quantity & arrangementarrangement

EstuarineEstuarine nature, location, quantity & nature, location, quantity & arrangementarrangement

Near-coastal, marineNear-coastal, marine nature, location, quantity & nature, location, quantity & arrangementarrangement

BiodiversityBiodiversity Species countsSpecies counts

Air quality regulation Air quality regulation due to vegetation**due to vegetation**

Removal of pollutantsRemoval of pollutants

Micro-climate Micro-climate regulation due to regulation due to vegetationvegetation

Changes in diurnal Changes in diurnal temperature ranges from temperature ranges from backgroundbackground

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Disturbance & Disturbance & Natural Hazard Natural Hazard RegulationRegulation

Erosion ControlErosion Control kg/ha/year reducedkg/ha/year reduced

Flood ControlFlood Control Change in flood peaks (2-Change in flood peaks (2-yr., 10-yr., 50-yr. yr., 10-yr., 50-yr. recurrence interval)recurrence interval)

Fire ControlFire Control Fuel loadFuel load

Biological Biological RegulationRegulation

PollinationPollination Increased production due Increased production due to pollinatorsto pollinators

Pest ControlPest Control Diversity/distance from Diversity/distance from ideal/fragmentationideal/fragmentation

Disease ControlDisease Control Host vector habitatHost vector habitat

Food/Fiber Food/Fiber ProductionProduction

Plant crops (grains, Plant crops (grains, fruits, etfruits, et

Bushel /ha/yearBushel /ha/year

Animal proteinAnimal proteinTerrestrial (livestock)Terrestrial (livestock)

lbs/ha, animals/halbs/ha, animals/ha

Wild aquatic Wild aquatic (commercial fish)(commercial fish)

““yearling” estimates, yearling” estimates, catch, change in catch, catch, change in catch, change in fish advisorieschange in fish advisories

Grazing Forage Grazing Forage ProductionProduction

Livestock supported/ hay Livestock supported/ hay bale/habale/ha

Fuels Fuels Net energy production Net energy production

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Water provisioningWater provisioning

QualityQuality EMAP condition indicators EMAP condition indicators

Surface water storagesSurface water storages usable volume/capacityusable volume/capacity

GroundwaterGroundwater --maps of regional and alluvial --maps of regional and alluvial aquifersaquifers-- recharge rates per unit area-- recharge rates per unit area-- est’d. change in aquifer -- est’d. change in aquifer storage, or piezometric head., storage, or piezometric head., ft. above referenceft. above reference

Timing: Timing: Maintenance of base flowMaintenance of base flow

Statistical measures of baseflow Statistical measures of baseflow characteristics, and change in characteristics, and change in samesame

Hydrologic regime Hydrologic regime Statistical measures of flow Statistical measures of flow regime, and change in sameregime, and change in same

RecreationalRecreational

Hunting & FishingHunting & Fishing Licenses/takeLicenses/take

Ecotourism/Nature Viewing/ Ecotourism/Nature Viewing/ trekking/ campingtrekking/ camping

Visits /yearVisits /year

BoatingBoating Rentals/docking feesRentals/docking fees

Recreational SportsRecreational Sports RentalsRentals

Sense of placeSense of place Spatially explicit visualization of Spatially explicit visualization of change in landscape for selected change in landscape for selected service endpointsservice endpoints

Spiritual valueSpiritual value Spatially explicit estimates of Spatially explicit estimates of change in indigenous non-change in indigenous non-consumptive use service endpointsconsumptive use service endpoints

Existence value / behest Existence value / behest value value

Spatially explicit visualization of Spatially explicit visualization of change in landscape for selected change in landscape for selected service endpoints, including non-service endpoints, including non-consumptive use endpointsconsumptive use endpoints