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Scope of Climate Change Scope of Climate Change Related StatisticsRelated Statistics

Meeting on climate change related statistics for producers and users

UNECE Task Force

Geneva, Switzerland, 19-20 November 2012

Julie L. Hass, Ph.D.

Statistics Norway

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Who is attending this meeting? Work areas? Producer – User?• National Statistical Offices

• Ministries/Agency of Environment

• Research Institutes and consultants

• Others?

• GHG emissions inventories

• Environment statistics

• Other statistics – labor force, health

• Others?

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Why are we talking about this?- Need for comprehensive information/data - Many different needs, producers and users- Need for communication and coordination- Experience from work on Sustainable Development

What are we talking about? … Change, Climate, Statistics/Official Statistics

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What is “Change”?

• Change – measured over time (yx

• Statistical System’s core competence is the development and maintenance of data for consistent time series!

– Seasonal adjustments– Temperature corrected– Monetary time series (“constant prices”)– Monetary comparisons between countries

(Purchasing Power Standards)

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What is “Climate”?

• Climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area.

• Average weather for a particular region and time period (typically 30 years)

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Climate Statistics: Global Climate Observing System

Domain 44 Essential Climate Variables (ECV) (selected)

Atmospheric

(over land, sea

and ice)

Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure

Upper-air: Radiation, Upper-air temperature, Water vapour, Cloud properties, etc.

Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, etc.

OceanicSurface: Sea-surface temperature/salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colourSub-surface:  Temperature, Salinity, Current, etc.

TerrestrialRiver discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost, Land cover, Soil moisture, etc.

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What is “Climate Change” ?• Typically addressed from a natural science perspective

• Examples:Changes in global temperatureChange in sea levels

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UNFCCC – defines climate change

• Article 1: “…a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

• Through the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change programs to address this challenge are developed.

• Focus on composition of the global atmosphere…especially on emissions of greenhouse gases

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How does official statistics enter this picture?

• Statistical system focuses mostly on activities from a human perspective

• Built originally with a focus on sectorpolicy needs – such as agriculture or education policy

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Climate Change related Statistics

• New user groups – with different user needs

• New types of analyses are needed

• Statistical system – multi-purpose data systems serving user needs: Collect data once, use many times

• New uses for some existing statistics:

• Foundation for the calculations for greenhouse gas emissions

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Energy Statistics

Production Statistics

Economic Statistics

Agriculture Statistics

Waste Statistics

Forestry Statistics

Pollutio

n /

emissions

registers

Greenhouse gas emissions inventories:Foundation from Official Statistics

TransportStatistics

Land use / cover

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Need from statistical system:

(Activity Data) x (Emissions Factors) = Emissions physical unit Emissions/physical unit

Typically from statistics

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Agriculture

Numbers, types and ages of livestock

Grazing patterns,

Manure management

Types of crops

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Use/improve existing information rather than establish new reporting systems

The Statistical System…

• is the only world-wide, comprehensive, multi-layer information system covering a spectrum of social, economic, environmental and institutional themes.

• has the responsibility for and control over definitions, classifications, nomenclatures, methodologies, accounting standards and data quality.

• needs to know what is being used and anticipate future needs for data use and analysis.

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Health statistics

• Re-occurrence of diseases no longer in areas, for example malaria in Europe

• New diseases

• Changes in current trends “Extreme events” (heat waves, storms, etc.)

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Water

And resulting land useland cover changes, and soil degradation.

… or the lack of it

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Crop production patterns

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Jobs…

“Green Jobs”

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Population / Demographics / MigrationTypes of “households”

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Boundaries for Climate Change related Statistics

• What to include and exclude?

• Is everything related to climate change?

• Explored this using different frameworks to see if these could help us determine the definition / boundary / scope of climate change related statistics.

– Driving forces – Pressure – State – Impacts – Response (DPSIR) – Mitigation, impact and adaptation– Framework for the Development of Environmental Statistics (FDES)– Natural capital