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Uncertainties in policy development of BwN projects-

Is ambiguity more important than content?

Ronald E. van den Hoek and Marcela Brugnach

University of Twente

IGS-SENSE Conference 2011 – 20 October 2011

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Why is uncertainty important for BwN?

Building with NatureBuilding in Nature

Use natural system dynamics ≈ accept uncertainty

The role of uncertainty fundamentally changes!

What does this mean for policy development?

Control the system, reduce uncertainty

1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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What is uncertainty?

UnpredictabilityLack of knowledge Ambiguity

1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

Uncertainty is important for policy development. Policy-makers prefer to be certain before spending money or making decisions

Types of uncertainty:

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Objectives of my PhD research

Assess how uncertainty is evaluated in BwN policy development

Identify (types of) uncertainties relevant for BwN policy development

1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

Identify effective strategies to cope with uncertainty in BwN

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Case study: Sand Engine

1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

Large-scale sand nourishment (21.5 million m3 of sand)

Natural dynamics distribute sand for natural dune development

Coastal maintenance

New nature and recreational area

Innovation and learning

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Results

Document analysis and interviews

Typical examples of important uncertainties Potential Sand Engine “project killers” 3 uncertainties of specific interest for interviewees

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Uncertainty about recreational safety (1)

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Uncertainty about recreational safety (2)

Interviewees vs. opponents Agree that conditions are unpredictable Disagree whether area can be kept safe

Ambiguity!

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Uncertainty about drinking water safety (1)

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Uncertainty about drinking water safety (2)

Project team vs. drinking water stakeholder Is Sand Engine a potential risk for fresh water supply?

Stakeholder: big issue and requires study If not: official complaint, causing a “killer delay”! Agreement needed within two weeks while parties

largely disagree

Ambiguity!

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (1)

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (2)

price/m3 sand is half of normal!

Project team: Sand Engine is an attractive and feasible project

Will constructor say: Sand Engine is too expensive?

Anxiety for ambiguity!

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Conclusions

Building with NatureBuilding in Nature

BwN changes the role of uncertainty in policy development

Ambiguity is more important in BwN than uncertainty due to deficit of knowledge

1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Social processes more important than technology

“Technically, the Sand Engine is not very exciting. Sand nourishment, the Dutch can do that, right? But other parties as well. There is a lot of expertise… The specificity of this project is its fast development process, cooperation and managing the environment. There are the real dynamics and uncertainties.”

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1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions

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Questions

Ronald E. van den Hoek

University of Twente

r.e.vandenhoek@utwente.nl

www.ecoshape.nl

Thank you for your attention!

1. Introduction – 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions