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Focal regions are circles of diameter 50km

Region 1: California Oregon Border

Region 1: 27528 cells, with average 43.8 host unitsHosts fairly heterogeneous Hazard heterogenous (due to host heterogeneity)Furthest away from current infection front…50% chance of invasion by 2017Noticeable proportion infected by 2020; about 50% cells infected by 2030 on average

Region 2: Humboldt

Region 2: 26269 cells, with average 52.5 host unitsHosts homogeneous Hazard heterogenous (due to weather variability)At Humboldt county focus….50% chance of single invasion by 2012Noticeable proportion infected by 2020; about 70% cells infected by 2030 on averageThis region has the highest risk of all regions (lots of hosts and getting there soon)

Region 3: 2007 Detection front

Region 3: 23469 cells, with average 48.0 host unitsHosts somewhat heterogeneous, with a few isolated small patches of high hostHazard heterogeneous (picking out some of these regions)Much lower hazard than regions 1 & 2 (weather driven)At 2007 infection front 50% chance of single invasion by 2008Noticeable proportion infected by 2020; about 70% cells infected by 2030 on average

Region 4: Sierra Nevada

Region 4: 23877 cells, with average 10.1 host unitsHosts heterogeneous, with band of host through middleHazard heterogeneous (picking out these regions)Much lower hazard than regions 3 and esp 1 & 2 (host + weather driven)50% chance of single invasion by 2019; however little chance of no infection by 2030Invasions do not lead to much bulking up…level of infection not noticable

even by 2030 (av 20 cells infected)

Region 5: South of Big Sur

Region 5: 10857 cells, with average 8.9 host unitsMost cells have few/no hosts, with diagonal band of middling amount of host E -> SSimilar hazard profile to region 4; again lower than 3 and esp 1 and 250% chance of single invasion by 2018; again little chance of no infection by 2030Very little bulking up after invasionInvasions do not lead to much bulking up…level of infection not noticable

even by 2030 (av 24 cells infected)

Region 6: Further South of Big Sur

So little is going on here, I propose that we just ignore it