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1
Agriculture and Renewable Energy
Sponsored by
Tennessee Department of Agriculture
The University of Tennessee at Martin
2
Alternative Energy Issues• What is driving the question?
– Environmental issues
• Greenhouse gases, global warming, fossil fuel depletion..
– National security
• Dependence on foreign nations for vital industry component.
– Global instability
• Middle East
– $$$$$$$$$
• American pocket book typically translates into policy change.
3
Alternative Energy Issues
• The United States imports more than 60% of its petroleum– two-thirds of which is used to fuel vehicles in
the form of gasoline and diesel.
• The demand for petroleum imports is increasing. – Much of the worldwide petroleum reserves
located in politically volatile countries– United States is vulnerable to supply
disruptions.
4
The Role of Agriculture
5
The Call to Energy Security“To build a future of energy security, we must trust in the creative genius of American researchers and entrepreneurs and empower them to pioneer a new generation of clean energy technology. Our security, our prosperity, and our environment all require reducing our dependence on oil.”
President George W. Bush
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
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U.S. Planted Corn Acreage
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
95000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Acr
es (
1,00
0)
National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2008
7
History of U.S. Ethanol Production
8
New RFS signed Dec. 19, 2007Year Conventional
BiofuelAdvanced
BiofuelCellulosic
BiofuelBiomass
DieselUndiff Adv
BiofuelTotal RFS
(BGY)
2008 9 92009 10.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 11.1
2010 12 0.95 0.1 0.65 0.2 12.95
2011 12.6 1.35 0.25 0.8 0.3 13.95
2012 13.2 2 0.5 1 0.5 15.2
2013 13.8 2.75 1 1.75 16.55
2014 14.4 3.75 1.75 2 18.15
2015 15 5.5 3 2.5 20.5
2016 15 7.25 4.25 3 22.25
2017 15 9 5.5 3.5 24
2018 15 11 7 4 26
2019 15 13 8.5 4.5 28
2020 15 15 10.5 4.5 30
2021 15 18 13.5 4.5 33
2022 15 21 16 5 36
Ethanol
9
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Current & Under Construction Capacity
• In 2007, there were 142 existing ethanol plants with a capacity to produce 8.9 Billion Gallons/Year (BGY)
• Another 67 plants are now under construction with a planned capacity of an additional 5.1 BGY
• Total existing and under-construction capacity of 13.0 BGY
11
National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2008
U.S. Soybean Acreage
56000
58000
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
76000
78000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
Ac
res
(1
00
0)
12
Source: National Biodiesel Board, 2008
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How Can Tennessee Agriculture Help?
• 2007 Tennessee acreage– Corn 870,000 acres– Soybeans 1.04 million acres
• Future Projections– Ethanol 31.5 billion gallons
or 20% of projected U.S. fuel use by 2015?
– Would require 95.6 million acres of corn.
– Include expanded acreage in Tennessee
– Result in $4.00 + corn Happy Farmers!
Tennessee Corn Acreage
690 710680
650
550
870
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Ac
res
(1
,00
0)
Tennessee Soybean Acreage
11601150
1210
1130
1160
1040
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
AC
res
(1,0
00)
National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2008
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A Possible Future of Agriculture
• Corn as a feed for livestock will probably decline.
• Beef and dairy will consume increased Dried Distillers Grains.
• Possibly see shrinking poultry and pork markets due to expected higher feed costs.
• The end result, consumers will pay for energy through fuel and food.
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Special Thanks
• Tennessee Department of Agriculture• University of Tennessee at Martin• Dr. Bill Herndon, Mississippi State University