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1BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES
NSLS-II Project Baseline
Jim YeckNSLS-II Deputy Project Director
NSLS-II PAC MeetingNovember 20, 2007
2BROOKHAVEN SCIENCE ASSOCIATES
Outline
NSLS-II Performance Baseline• Scope• Cost Baseline and Contingency Estimates• Schedule Baseline and Float Estimates• Funding vs. Obligation Profiles
Discussion Issues• Preparation for Construction Management• Funding Management• Staffing Ramp-up• Requirements Documentation
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Baseline Summary
• Design, Construct, Commission a highly optimized synchrotron facility capable of meeting the mission need through delivery of:
- extremely high brightness and flux- exceptional beam stability- suite of advanced instruments, optics, and detectors that capitalize
on these special capabilities
• Total Project Cost $912M
• CD-4, Project Completion, June 2015
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Project Scope
Accelerator Systems• Storage Ring (~ ½ mile in circumference)• Linac and Booster Injection System
Conventional Facilities• Improvements to Land• Ring Building with Operations Center and service buildings (~ 341k gsf)• Laboratory/Office Buildings for beamline staff and users (~71k gsf)• Utilities including upgrades to the BNL Chilled Water Plant (2 chillers)
Experimental Facilities• Initial suite of 6 insertion device beamlines and instruments• Capable of hosting at least 58 beamlines
Design Documentation
Global Reference Documents• Global Requirements Document and Global Parameters List• Work Breakdown Structure and Dictionary
Requirements, Specifications, and Interface Documents• Description of the technical attributes and design basis for major NSLS-II systems and
facilities. Includes system-level technical interface requirements and design authority definitions. Still a work-in-progress.
Preliminary Design Report (PDR)• Updates Conceptual Design Report (CDR) to current scope and design• Comprehensive draft complete with the final report planned for December
Design Drawings• Conventional Facilities Preliminary Design Drawing Packages• Accelerator Preliminary Design Drawings and Advanced Conceptual Design Drawings
for the six project beamlines
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Baseline Assumptions
• Base estimates developed in FY07$ and do not include contingency, escalation, or burdens
• Construction Rate of 10.5%
• Escalation rates of 5.0% per year on construction contracts and 3.2% per year on all other activities
• Basis of Estimate• Estimates prepared by experienced accelerator and light source staff• Majority of the estimate supported by vendor quotes and catalog prices
• Project staff begin transitioning into operations in 2012 after beneficial occupancy of experimental floor space
6
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NSLS-II Cost Baseline ($M)
1.1 Project Management 53 1.3 Accelerator Systems 242 1.5 Conventional Facilities 241 1.4 Experimental Facilities 73
Total Construction Cost Baseline 609 Contingency (~30% of Cost Baseline) 183
Total Estimated Costs (TEC) 792
1.2 R&D and Conceptual Design 60 1.6 Pre-Operations (includes 20% contingency) 60
Other Project Costs (OPC) 120
Total Project Costs (TPC) $ 912
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DOE – Science Experience
Project Contingency as % of BAC for TPC
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
13.0%
18.0%
23.0%
28.0%
33.0%
38.0%
43.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
% Project Completion
% C
onti
ngen
cy
NSLS II
LCLS
CFN
CINT
CNM
CNMS
Foundry
SPEAR 3
NuMI
LHC Accel
U.S.ATLASU.S. CMS
LAT
ITER
NCSX
PSF
CDF
DZero
12 GeV
SNS
% atBaseline
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Funding Profile with Operations
TPC = $912M TEC = $792M (including 30% contingency)
Note: Operations funding is not part of the TPC.
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
AY
M$
Operations
Pre-Ops
Construction
PED
OPC
R&D
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12 Months Total Schedule Contingency
Baseline Schedule
Schedule Development
Cost Estimate Emphasis at CD-1 with Schedule at Planning Level
Increased Emphasis on Schedule in Preparation for CD-2• Created technically limited resource-loaded schedule with 2013 early finish. • Relaxed early completion date to April 2014 (CD-1 preliminary date) and delayed work
to accommodate funding constraints.• Incorporated latest risk information (contingency) prior to tuning the schedule in an attempt
to bring obligations in line with funding, moved completion date two months to June 2014.• Delayed Conventional Facilities (CF) given the large demand on funding in early years.• Delays in CF considered unacceptable given the cost and schedule risk; elected to pull
CF forward and delay other activities, e.g., the accelerator injection system, to reduce risk.
Assessment• The resource-loaded schedule is of high quality with adequate activities and interdependencies
to allow the management team to proactively manage schedule within the available resources.• The project will ensure that the CF schedule has priority and will manage activities in the
shadow of the CF schedule to ensure they do not become critical to the overall schedule.
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Summary Schedule
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Schedule Float & Critical Path
CD-4, Start of Operations, June 2015• 12 months after the early project completion date
Early Project Completion, June 2014• Conventional facilities design and construction is recognized as the most
critical activity until the BOD of the storage ring tunnel in February 2012.• There is six months of float on the CF schedule.• Some accelerator subsystems will become critical if there are delays in CF.
Critical Path(s) Analysis• Conventional facilities CF/Booster Ring Storage Ring Commissioning
– Conventional facilities design and procurement until April 2009– Booster ring and CF until February 2012 and Booster installation and commissioning
until September 2013– Storage ring commissioning is the critical path from October 2013 until project
completion
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Funding vs. Obligations
Prior FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 TOTALCarryover From Prior Year 683 9,474 16,950 -755 3,862 6,977 137 9,250
Total Planned Funding 30,800 65,000 88,000 164,500 254,400 173,800 81,800 48,700 5,000 912,000
Total Funding Available 30,800 65,683 97,474 181,450 253,645 177,662 88,777 48,837 14,250
Obligation Plan (excluding Contingency) 30,117 56,209 76,386 148,051 192,273 125,901 63,828 25,074 717,839
Estimate of Additional Funding Required 0 4,138 34,154 57,510 44,784 24,812 14,512 14,250 194,161
Yearly Balance (carryover) 683 9,474 16,950 -755 3,862 6,977 137 9,250 0
Risk Registry Estimates 7,606 13,138 34,154 57,510 38,784 18,812 2,823 172,827
• Funding Profile is less than optimum in FY2009 and FY2010• Plan to carry-over funding from FY2008 and FY2009 into FY2010• Construction contracts placed in mid FY2009• Contingency profile adjusted based on management evaluation
• Labor during ramp-up unlikely to exceed cost plan, cost risk at later stages• Manage to baseline budget in FY2008• Funding must enable award of construction contracts on schedule, 20% contingency
Funding vs. Obligation Plan ($K)
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NSLS-II FTEs by YearNSLS-II Project FTEs
-
50
100
150
200
250
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Fiscal Year
FT
Es
Project Management Accelerator Systems Conventional Facilities Experimental Facilities
Today
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Conclusion
Technical Baseline• NSLS-II preliminary design provides a sound basis for the start of final design.• Technical risk factors are manageable and are being addressed by a modest R&D
program and mitigation plans.• The approach to conventional facilities is realistic and responsive to recent experience.
Cost Baseline• The cost baseline is sound and contingency is adequate.
Schedule Baseline• The resource-loaded schedule is very well developed and the the critical path(s)
are clearly understood.• The schedule baseline is reconciled with the anticipated funding plans.
Project Management Systems• The management tools are commensurate with the size and complexity of NSLS-II.
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Discussion Issues• Preparation for Construction Management
– Are we going to be ready for the issues and challenges? – What can we do to be better prepared?
• Funding Management– Are the funding management plans realistic?– Are there other ways to more fully exploit the funding profile?
• Staffing Ramp-up– Are the staffing plans realistic and what more can be done to increase our
chances of adhering to the plan?– What options can we pursue to hold schedule if we fall short of hiring plans?
• Requirements Documentation– Is the current plan workable?