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By: Dr. Nader SaidBy: Dr. Nader Said
Development Studies Programme
Polling Palestinian Voters
(Legislative Elections 2006)
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• Legislative Elections in West Bank and Gaza-January 2006; 132 seats.
• Mixed elections system: - Proportional:11 national lists competing to win 66 seats (with 314 candidates). - Simple majority voting for individual candidates – 16 different size – districts with 412 candidates competing to win 66 seats.
• 2% of the vote minimum threshold to enter the competition for seats.
About the Elections
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Structure of the Exit Poll
• 232 Polling Stations (9%).
• Special Security Forces survey.
• More than 600 Research Interviewers.
• 100 Data Processing & Programming Personnel.
• Total workforce of over than 900 personnel including interviewing, data processing, and supervisory staff.
• 8000 completed questionnaires in districts, 2800 for national lists, and 956 for background Questionnaires.
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58%
42%
20%
42%38%
42%
58%54%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
WestBank
Gaza Camp Village City Refugee Non-refugee
Male Female
Profile of Palestinian Voters
5
44% 46%
10%
47%50%
4%
7% 9%
16%
38%
12%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
18-29 30-50 More than50
Religious SomewhatReligious
NotReligious
Illiterate Preparatory Elementary Secondary Diploma B.A. or more
Profile of Palestinian Voters … Continue
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Perceived Fairness of Elections Process
70.9%
66%
82%
25.7%
30%
16%
3.5%
4%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Total
West Bank
Gaza
Fair Somewhat Fair Unfair
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Evaluation of CEC Performance
71.5%
25.0%
3.5%
Satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not satisfied
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Why did you participate?
26%
22%
16%
14%
12%
6%
2.4%
1%
0.4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
My duty as a citizen
It's a democratic right and practice
Improving internal condition--chaos/violence
To improve the economic situation
To improve PNA institutions
Convinced by candidate
Hope for change in political parties
Confirm to the wishes of a political Party
Conform to the wishes of my family
9
81%
80%
78%
77%
68%
62%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Reform PNA Institutions
Improve internal security
Improve economicconditions
Promote Democracy
Resumption ofNegotiations with Israel
Ease of Closure
Israeli Withdrawal
Expectations from elections.
10
Distribution of % vote and seats
44
75
42 45
4.2 3 2.7 2 2.4 2 2.4 20
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Hamas Fateh PFLP Badil IndependentPalestine
Third Way Others
%
Seats
11
Votes Compared with seats
Hamas Others
44%
56%
Popular Vote
35%
65%
Districts Vote
At District Level
Proportional System
56%
56%
% of Seats
37
29
% of Seats
32%
68%
45
21
12
The Popularity of Hamas (Change and Reform List)
44%
56% 67%
33%
22%
78%
Hamas Others
Valid Vote for National lists Registered Voters
Voting Age Population
21
13
14%
8%
78%
Voted for Hamas / commited Voted for Hamas / Not Supportive Others
The Popularity of Hamas
14
Why a vote for Hamas (and not Fateh)
19%
12%
43%
Ending Corruption
Religious Reasons
Political agenda
15
Voting for Hamas and Fateh
1. Age Group
47%43%
47%
39%
45%40%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
18-29 30-50 More than 50
Hamas
Fateh
16
Voting for Hamas and Fateh
2. Gender
39%
49%
56%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Men Women
HamasFateh
17
Voting for Hamas and Fateh
3. Education
44% 43%
48%43%
46%
38%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
> 9 years 9 12 12
HamasFateh
+-
18
Voting for Hamas and Fateh
4. Work / Sector
52%
32%
23%
68%
52%
30%
60%
25%
56%
33%
56%
30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Private Public NGOs Students Housewives Don't work
Hamas
Fateh
19
Voting for Hamas and Fateh
5. Religiosity
54%
38%41%
45%
20%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious
Hamas
Fateh
20
Voting for Hamas and Fateh
6. Type of Residence
53%
38%42% 41%
44%50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
City Village / town Refugee Camp
Hamas
Fateh
21
Support for President Abbas’s Program by Political support
79%
30%
50%
10%
41%
50%
13%
29%
00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Supportive Not Supportive Don't know / Undecided
FatehHamasPFLP
22
• 74 % didn’t expect a Hamas overwhelming majority in PLC.
• 67% expect that a Hamas led government commit to political negotiations with Israel.
Positions Regarding the Results of the Elections