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CFIA-ACIA
Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) TrainingTraining
International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC)
CFIA-ACIA
Stages
• Stage 1: Initiation• Stage 2: Pest Risk Assessment
– Step 1: Pest Categorization– Step 2: Assessment of the Probability of
Introduction and Spread– Step 3: Impacts– Step 4: Overall Assessment of Risk– Step 5: Uncertainty
• Stage 3: Pest Risk Management
Pest risk analysis• Stage 1 (initiation) asked:
– What bad thing can happen?
• Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked:– How likely is it to happen?– How bad will it be?– Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable?
• Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks:– What can be done about it?
Overall pest risk
Response to risk
Pest identity
Stage 3: Pest Risk Management
– Identifying options
– Evaluating options
– Selecting options
CFIA-ACIA
• Conclusions of pest risk assessment
• Risk acceptable? PRA ends
• Risk unacceptable? PRA continues
Stop
Conclusion of pest risk assessment
• Level of risk can be expressed in various ways– Reference to existing phytosanitary
requirements– Indexed to estimated economic losses– Expressed on a scale of risk tolerance– Compared to the risk presented by the
same pest at a different time– Compared with the level of risk accepted by
other countries– Compared with the level of risk accepted for
other pests
Acceptability of risk
• Acceptable level of risk is established by the NPPO
• When might risk be acceptable?– Level of risk is so low that specific treatment is not
cost effective
– Level of risk is no greater than that already experienced
– Cost of mitigation is excessive compared to the benefit
• When is risk unacceptable?– Pest incursion would result in economic, environmental
or social consequences
Risk is unacceptable • Western corn rootworm in
DE– Spreading in nearby countries – High potential impact due to
crop losses over large area, increasing maize production
– Natural & man-made spread– Unacceptable risk
• Next steps:– Stage 2: Pest risk
management– Identify appropriate
mitigation measures, if any
Pest risk management
• Measures can be implemented – to the growing crop– to the harvested commodity– to associated materials
• Measures can be implemented – at origin or in the exporting country – at the point of entry – within the importing country or
invaded area
• A structured analysis of measures that can be recommended to minimize risks posed by a pest or pathway
Pest risk management• Consider all pathways
– Traded plants or plant products – Natural spread of the pest– Entry with human travellers – Vehicular transport– Associated materials
• Identify points at which mitigation measures might be applied
• Identify possible mitigation measures at each point• Assess each for effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility
….• Select appropriate measure(s)
Mitigation points
Nursery or Orchard
Packing House
Containers PlantationPort of Arrival
Country of Origin Country of
Destination
In Transit
Mitigation points
▪ Place▪ Crop
▪ Commodity▪ Pathway
Country of Origin Country of
Destination
In Transit
▪ Storage Facility▪ Container(s)
▪ Transport(ship, train, truck …)
▪ Commodity▪ Pathway
▪ Place▪ Other
Country of origin• Place/area of production
measures – General or pest-specific surveillance
– Historic data
– Official measures to maintain pest-free status
• Crop measures– Treatment of the crop, field or place of
production
– Growing plants under protected conditions to prevent infestation of the crop
– Specifying time of harvest
– Phytosanitary certification
Country of origin• Commodity Measures
– Inspection or laboratory tests– Prohibition of parts of the host– Restricting the composition of a
consignment– Pre-shipment quarantine– Specified conditions for preparing
the consignment– Treatment for removal of pest(s)
• Pathway measures– Targeted inspections, publicity and
fines or incentives– Measures for machinery, modes of
transportation, or packaging
In transit• Commodity Measures
– Storage conditions may be specified
• Temperature, packaging, separation from other specified plants etc.
– Fumigation or other chemical treatment on board ship
– Ship inspection before loading or at destination
Country of destination
• Commodity Measures– Inspection of consignments at
the point of entry
– Treat the consignment to kill living pests
– Contain imported consignments to limit spread of introduced pests
– Post-entry quarantine
– Limit use, distribution, or timing of consignments
Country of destination
• Prohibition of a specific commodity from specific source– Only if no treatments or
inspection techniques are available and effective in reducing risk to acceptable levels
– A measure of last resort
– IPPC principles of necessity, science-based, managed risk and minimal impact
Other measures• Document
– Phytosanitary Certificates– Import permits– IPPC stamp for SWP
• Phytosanitary Certificates– Official assurance that specified import
requirements are met– Confirms that risk management
measures have been taken– Only for regulated articles
• Educate– Educate & inform
travellers, importers, industry, government or public
Selecting appropriate measures
• Phytosanitary measures should be:– cost-effective & feasible– no more trade-restrictive than
necessary– not imposed if existing measures are
effective• Different measures with the same
effect should be accepted as alternatives
• For pests under official control in PRA area, import measures should be no more restrictive than measures applied within PRA area
Cost-effectiveness
FeasibilityMinimal ImpactEquivalenceNon-
discrimination
Evaluating options
• Evaluate each option for:– Effectiveness
– Efficiency
– Cost effectiveness
– Feasibility
– Reproducibility
– Potential negative social, economic or environmental consequences
CFIA-ACIA
Pest risk analysis• Stage 1 (initiation) asked:
– What bad thing can happen?
• Stage 2 (pest risk assessment) asked:– How likely is it to happen?– How bad will it be?– Does it matter? Is the risk acceptable?
• Stage 3 (pest risk management) asks:– What can be done about it?
Overall pest risk
Response to risk
Pest identity
Selecting options
Option A Option B Option C
Effective √ √
Feasible √ √ √
Efficient √ √ √
Limitations
No Yes Yes
Conclusion
Accept Do not accept
Accept
Risk management example
NurseryPacking House
Ship PlantationPort of Arrival
Country of Origin Country of
Destination
0
20
40
60
80
100
Inspection Cleaning Fumigation No measures Document verification
Risk management example
NurseryPacking House
Ship PlantationPort of Arrival
Country of Origin Country of
Destination
0
20
40
60
80
100
No measures Cleaning, Seed health test No measures No measures Document verification
Lev
el o
f ri
sk
Conclusion of Stage 3
• Risk mitigation measures have been:– Identified– Evaluated– Selected
• Mitigation measures to reduce risk to acceptable level are selected, or
• No mitigation measures are available
Conclusion of PRA
• Pest risk management conclusion:– selection of one of more options or
series of options, OR– no suitable mitigation measures
available
• PRA ends– options form the basis of phytosanitary
regulations or requirements
Costs and Benefits
• “The cost-benefit analysis for each of the minimum measures found to provide acceptable security may be estimated. Those measures with an acceptable benefit-to-cost ratio should be considered.”
• How is this done? What does cost-benefit mean?
Costs and Benefits
• Costs = costs of measure(s) applied– Industry costs: determined from
additional costs / increased labour costs
– Government costs: staff costs to apply and monitor measures
• Benefits = avoiding the losses that the pest would otherwise cause
Costs and Benefits: example
• A risk assessment of Pest x suggests that unless measures are taken it is very likely to be carried on imported host plants from the country of origin to the PRA area where it is very likely to transfer to crops and cause yield losses of $100 ha-1 year-1.
• Based on spread elsewhere it is likely that the entire crop area of 10,000 ha would be infested within 5 years.
Four options are considered1. Source plants from a pest free area
• But exporting country cannot establish a PFA2. Parts of plants (e.g. leaves) prohibited
• But will add cost ($10,000 year-1)3. Inspect crop at origin, apply appropriate
chemical treatment if needed, inspect consignments before export and certify pest free • But will add cost ($40,000 year-1)
4. Post entry quarantine• But will add cost ($300,000 year-1)
Costs and Benefits: example
Costs and Benefits: example
1. PFA 2. Prohibit plant parts
3. Inspection & treatment
4. Post entry quarantine
Effective √ √ (partly)
√ (partly)
√
Feasible x √ √ √
Efficient x √ (partly)
√ (partly)
No
Cost ($’000)
N/A 10 40 300
Conclusion
N/A Apply Apply Too costly
Costs and Benefits: example
• In the short term (5 years) the cost of applying measures will be– Option 2= $50,000 (partly effective)– Option 3 = $200,000 (partly effective)– Option 4 = $1,500,000 (fully effective) – Option 2 & 3 = $250,000 (fully effective)
• The expected cost (5 years) of not applying measures are estimated to be 10,000 infested ha at a cost of $100/ha = $1,000,000
Costs and Benefits: example
Costs Benefits Ratio
Option 2 50,000 1,000,000 1:20
Option 3 200,000 1,000,000 1:5
Option 4 1,500,000 1,000,000 1:0.7
Option 2 & 3 combined
250,000 1,000,000 1:4
Pest Risk Management
• Risk mitigation measures are:– Identified– Evaluated– Selected
• Pest risk is acceptable
• PRA ends
Pest risk assessment
Pest risk management
Pest/pathway