EPRI Update
Bryan Hannegan, Ph.D.Vice President, Environment & Renewables
Renewable Energy Council
June 30, 2010
2© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our History
• Founded by and for the electricity industry in 1973
• Independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research
• Collaborative resource for the electricity sector
• Major offices in Palo Alto, CA; Charlotte, NC; Knoxville, TN– Laboratories in Knoxville,
Charlotte and Lenox, MA Chauncey StarrEPRI Founder
3© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our Reputation
“I insisted that we give the whole story, the pros, the cons, the black and the white. EPRI reports and EPRI results became technologically accepted in the whole community – the environmental community, public community, scientific community… as being credible work that people could have confidence in. And that credibility has to be maintained. This is a philosophic creed that goes right into the soul of EPRI and it must never get lost.”Chauncey StarrEPRI Founder
“I insisted that we give the whole story, the pros, the cons, the black and the white. EPRI reports and EPRI results became technologically accepted in the whole community – the environmental community, public community, scientific community… as being credible work that people could have confidence in. And that credibility has to be maintained. This is a philosophic creed that goes right into the soul of EPRI and it must never get lost.”Chauncey StarrEPRI Founder
4© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our Members
• 450+ participants in more than 40 countries
• EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity in the United States
• International funding of more than 18% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations
5© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
116 119 126 133 134 119 127
40 44 44 49 4741 39
6776
8993 83
72 65
6269
7985
82
57 65
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2006 Act 2007 Act 2008 Act 2009 Act 2010 Plan Q1 2009 Q1 2010
Nuclear Environment Generation PDU
$285$308
$338
$296$289
$360 $346
Our Funding
6© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2009-2010 Funding Projections & Status
2009 CPI 2010 Projection/Status
Stimulus Funding Dependent upon Prime Negotiations
$7M
2009 Actual
DemoPrepays
$190M
$124M
$21M
$21M SUPP TC Policy Change
$3M $12M
SUPP Reduced Operating Budgets
$8M
$201M $201M
$136M$121M
Stimulus
$14M
$10M
$2M
$335M
$360M$346M
STIM
DEMO
SUPP
MEM
LEGEND
+10%
+5%$203M
$103M
$14M
$320M
+2M
$372M
+$52MTo Go
© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our Management Structure
NeilWilmshurst
VPNuclear
Steve SpeckerPresident & CEO
James L. TurnerChairman,
Board of Directors
This management structure is as of April 6, 2010
Hank CourtrightSVP, Member &
External Relations
Norma FormanekSVP, Administration& General Counsel
Mike HowardSVPR&D
SteveYamamoto
VP, Treasurer& CFO
DennisMurphy
VPMarketing &
Info. Technology
RobChapman
VP Technical AdvisoryServices
ArshadMansoor
VPPower Delivery
& Utilization
BryanHannegan
VPEnvironment &
Renewable Energy
RosaYang
VPInnovation
SalCasente
VPLegal
CarolynShockley
VPGeneration
8© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Making Renewable Energy Work
• Reduce Cost of Generation Technology Options
• Integrate Variable Generation with Transmission and Distribution
• Optimize with Energy Storage and the Smart Grid
• Understand and Minimize Environmental Impacts
More affordable, reliable and sustainable
9© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
IGCC
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The Cost Challenge
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton
All costs are in December 2008 $
PC
Nuclear ($4860/kW)
Wind (35% CF)
Biomass
No investment or production tax credits are assumed for any technology.
Solar thermal LCOE ranges between $225-$290/MWh
Rev. October 2009
NGCC ($5-8/MMBtu)
Renewables “out of the money” without incentives
90% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1019539
10© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Integration Challenge
High Levels of Variable Wind and Solar PV Will Present an Operating Challenge!
11© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Understanding the interactions
– Characterizing the renewable resource
– Interactions with species and habitat
– Life cycle assessment
– Human health and safety
• Advancing improved approaches
– Siting methodologies
– Technology and operational improvements
– Mitigation strategies
• Large scale impacts and limitations
– Assess the impacts of “harvesting” renewables at large scales
The Environmental Challenge
12© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI’s Expanding Renewables Portfolio
Energy StorageEnergy Storage
SolarSolar
WindWind
GeothermalGeothermal
BiomassBiomass
Water PowerWater Power
TransmissionTransmissionIntegrationIntegration
DistributionDistributionIntegrationIntegration
TransmissionTransmissionIntegrationIntegration
DistributionDistributionIntegrationIntegration
RenewablesRenewables
Water PowerWater Power
RenewablesRenewables
Water PowerWater Power
2008 2009 2010
New for 2011: Environmental Aspects
Energy StorageEnergy StorageEnergy StorageEnergy Storage
13© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI Renewables Funding
0
2
4
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12
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16
18
20
2007 2008 2009 2010Goal
2010 YTD
$ m
illio
n
Funnel
Demos
Env
D Int
L Int
Storg
Water
Gen3.3 3.4
2.0
5.00.6
3.6
3.3 3.3
5.6
7.7
12.1
15.0
1.51.2
1.70.7
4.0
0.90.7
1.7
1.20.51.8
5.0
2.0
2.8
3.9
1.60.8
17.6
14© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Broadening Our Reach …
• NREL – EPRI “Partnership Agreement”
– Identified 29 areas for potential collaboration
– Joint projects, funding opportunities, data exchange, use of facilities
• ACORE Electric Services Committee
– Hannegan Co-Chair starting 2H 2010
– Opportunity to interact with vendors, NGOs
• Utility Wind Integration Group
– Brooks ex-officio member of UWIG Board
– Coordinating on several wind/solar projects
15© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Recent EPRI Activities
• Mid-May: EPRI/SEPA/NREL Solar Meetings held jointly in Denver
• 1st Week in June: International PDU Council Meeting in Madrid
– Planning, forecasting, and operations issues related to high-penetration wind integration in Spain
– Toured REE Control Centre for Renewable Energies
• 2nd Week in June: International Renewable Generation Conference
– Hosted by E.ON at Ratcliffe-on-Soar Training Center
– Outlined future R&D needs for all aspects
• 3rd Week in June: Renewable Energy in Alaska Conference
– “Dance Partners: Renewables and the Smart Grid”
16© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Renewable Energy Council
• Cross-cutting advisory council to help guide EPRI’s research in renewable energy
• Provide oversight to entire renewable energy portfolio
• Diverse membership (VP level or above)– Fossil Ops– T&D/Grid Ops– Environmental Compliance– Renewables Strategy
• Upcoming Schedule– TODAY: Biomass– December 2010: Wind Integration– Other topics via webcast
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What are some key results from EPRI’s recent workon renewable energy?
18© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Utility-Scale Wind Evaluation (1021319)
• Locations:
– Base Case– California– Texas– Michigan– New York– Offshore NY
• Conceptual design, performance, capitaland O&M cost, levelized COE
Key ResultEngineering/Economic Evaluations
19© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Current Wind Project Cost and Performance
Levelized COE (4th Quarter 2009 $)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
BaseCase
100 MW
California100 MW
Texas 200 MW
Michigan150 MW
New York50 MW
NYOffshore201.6 MW
$/MWhAnnual Capacity Factor
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
BaseCase
100 MW
California100 MW
Texas 200 MW
Michigan150 MW
New York50 MW
NYOffshore201.6 MW
With 30% Investment Tax Credit
20© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key ResultWind Turbine - Advanced Nondestructive Evaluation
• Cost-effective inspection ofwind turbine components duringfabrication and in-service
• Laser shearography– Tested in collaboration with
NREL and Sandia– Initial results very favorable
• Baseline testing– Detected delamination near trailing edge
root (10 x 25 cm) – Imaged trailing edge and spar web bond– Detection of internally bonded features
21© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key ResultEngineering/Economic Evaluations
Central Station PV Evaluation (1021320)
• 6 PV Technologies:
– Fixed Flat Plate a-Si
– Fixed Flat Plate CdTe
– Fixed Flat Plate c-Si
– 1-Axis Tracking c-Si
– Tilted 1-Axis Tracking c-Si
– 2-Axis Tracking CPV
• Four Locations:– Las Vegas, NV– Alamosa, CO– Jacksonville, FL– Columbus, OH
22© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Current Solar PV Cost and Performance
Levelized COE (4th Quarter 2009 $)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Fixed a-Si Fixed CdTe Fixed c-Si 1-Axis c-SI Tilted 1-Axis c-Si 2-Axis CPV
PV Technology
Las Vegas, NV Alamosa, CO Jacksonville, FL Columbus, OH
With 30% Investment Tax Credit
$/MWh
23© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Result Distributed PV Monitoring at Alabama Power
• 4 different arrays (1.1 kW each)
• Side-by-side performance comparison
• System integration, evaluation using micro-inverters on each panel
• Increased understanding of PV operations in southeast climate
Panel Type(Silicon)
Panel CostJune ‘09
($/W)
Panel Cost May ‘10
($/W)
Polycrystalline $ 3.54 $ 2.42
Monocrystalline $ 3.50 $ 2.74
Thin film (flexible) $ 4.22 $ 3.54
Heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer
$ 4.60 $ 4.46
as purchased today
24© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Groundbreaking for the TVA-EPRI Solar-Assisted EV Charging Station in Knoxville
Kim Greene, TVA Mike Howard Anda Ray, TVA
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Prism 2.0 Project Using Realistic Meteorology, Resource Supply, and Turbine Technology
•5,354 sites picked from 200m grid national survey
– Exclusion areas
– 100 MW site minimum
– Distance to grid
– Terrain/wake effects
•12 year hourly simulation based on 1997‐2008 meteorology for
– 80m hub 1.5 MW turbine
– Min/Max energy density
– Power curves
Wind Resource Data
Excluded Areas
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Example Analysis Using New Wind Data for NW-Central Region
• State hourly load data for 2007 from Energy Velocity
• Hourly loads and wind output synchronized so driven by same 2007 meteorology
• Add 50 GW new installed wind capacity within region
• Rank sites by capacity factor, build best sites first
NW‐Central
27© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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100,000
MW
NWC Time Series from 2/28/07 to 3/7/07 w 50 GW Added
Wind
NWC Load
New Wind Data Captures Variability of Resource
Max for year near the 50 GW of capacity Minimum < 5 GW
28© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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NWC Time Series from 8/9/07 to 8/16/07 w 50 GW Added
Wind
NWC Load
Anti-correlation of Wind with Load Creates Ramping Issues
The morning up-ramp
The evening down-ramp
29© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
New Model Allows Dynamic Interplay Between Wind Resources and Transmission
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New Transm
ission (G
W)
Cost of Electricity ($/M
Wh)
Wind Generation (TWh)
Delivered Wind Supply Cost w No New Transmission
Generation Cost
Delivered Cost
X trans only
New Transmission (GW)
EPRI – TruePower National Wind Energy Supply Curve
What is required at < $100/MWh?• 350 GW of new turbines
~$785 billion230,000 turbines
• 25 new EHV transmission lines~$ 50 billion17,000 line miles
30© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Frequency of Coal Ramping in NW-Central Shows Challenge for Operators
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Reference
+ 10 GW wind
+ 100 GW wind
+ 50 GW windHourly Change in Dispatch (GW)
Hours of Year
2007 Total Installed Coal Capacity = 36 GW
2007 Average CF = 73%
31© 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Who: 170+ “C” Level” Executives and key stakeholders and influencers from the global Energy Industry / Electricity Sector
• What: Leadership forum combining outside guest speakers, members and EPRI insights on:
• Prism 2.0…the next generation• The changing energy landscape• Renewables, coal, natural gas, etc.• Policy implications
• When: August 2-3, 2010
• Where: The Four Seasons Hotel, Chicago, IL
• Why: Provide our members and guests the opportunity to learn, share views and discuss critical industry issues
The “5 Ws”…
Summer Seminar 2010 … “Renewing Our Future”
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Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity