1

ERF Infrastructure Safety ForumWorkshop: Tuesday 11 October 2005Preventive Hazard Identification

Michael Höppner, FGS Berlin

Risk assessment in urban areas

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner2

Risk assessment in urban areas

• What are the safety problems in urban areas?

• Can we identify special areas?

• Do we know the backgrounds?

• Can we get active preventatively?

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner3

One remark before ....

•Driving and walking is very simple, everybody can do it, even without a special education

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner4

Three rules for safe travelling:

1. Use the predefined road way

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner5

Three rules for safe travelling:

2. Avoid touching obstacles or stop before (including moving obstacles!)

Area of safe travel and stopping line (Gibson&Crooks 1938)

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner6

Three rules for safe travelling:

3. Have confidence, but not to much

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner7

Accidents by kind of road, federal country Brandenburg, Germany 2004

8.847 8.797

7.8157.433

6.3515.850

5.315

11.820 11.997

11.364

10.743

9.668

9.0958.748

9.176

11.982

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

rural

urban

urban roads: 62%

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner8

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner9

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner10

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner11

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner12

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner13

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner14

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner15

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner16

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner17

kind of accident, rural

680

348

486

739

72

1.388

270

1.019

149

164

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000

k . A./other

with stationary car

with in front of starting car

with parallel itinerant car

with obliging car

bending in/crossing

with pedestrian

with road obstacle

leave road to the right

leave road to the left

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner18

kind of accident, urban804

937

815

286

714

3.474

648

53

603

414

0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000

k . A./other

with stationary car

with in front of starting car

with parallel itinerant car

with obliging car

bending in/crossing

with pedestrian

with road obstacle

leave road to the right

leave road to the left

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner19

Accident location in road net with BASta

Using an accident data management system

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner20

Accidents in Brandenburg 2004

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner21

Accidents 2004 in urban situations

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner22

Ranking „suspicious“ urban road sections

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner23

Rank #1 in 2004

B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930

B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940

B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450

B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460

L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70

L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5

L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner24

Accidents of the years 2000-2004

B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930B 1-930

B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940B 1-940

B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450B 102-450

B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460B 102-460

L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70L 91-70

L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5L 98-5

L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10L 98-10

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner25

6 examples: urban sections with problems

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner26

Example #1: Divide road in subsections

Brandenburger Stra

ße

B 1-820

Auf dem Stre

ngfeld

Potsdam

er Straße

Grüner Weg

UB 1: km 0,386 - 0,534km 0,000 - 0,250

L 90-40

UB 3: km 0,950 - 1,050

An der Chauss

ee

UB 2: km 0,700 - 0,900Richterberg

B 1-830

Mo

osfennstraß

e

Pusch

kinstr

aße

Kugelweg

LietzesWeg

Brandenburger Straße

Glindow

UB 4: km 2,050 - 2,200

L 90-30

2,2

0,4

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,82

3,2

3,4

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820

B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840B 1-840

L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30L 90-30

L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner27

Example #1: Accidents with cyclists

drinks cash-and-carry restaurant

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner28

Example #1: accidents with cyclists and cars

2,2

12/00

10/01

31/02

L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40

06/98

02/9810/99

02/99

15/00

11/00

09/00

05/00

11/01

12/02

36/02

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner29

Example #1: where is the problem?

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner30

Example #1: a proposal for redevelopment

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner31

Example #2: single accidents, no clusters

Altstadt

UB 2: km 1,450 - 1,550

B 1-820

UB 1: km 0,050 - 1,450L 90-40

Am Gutshof

Plantagenplatz

Richterberg

B 1-830

B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820B 1-820

L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40L 90-40

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner32

Example #2: looks normal

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner33

Example #2: again problems of sight

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner34

Example #2: a proposal of road redevelopment

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner35

Example #3: a real black spot

UB 1: km 1,770 - 1,870

Berlin-Zehlendorf

UB 2: km 1,870 - 2,920

K 6901-10

Teltow

Puschkinplatz

Kleinmachnow

Förster-Funke-Allee

Friedensbrücke

Machnower See

Bäketal

Stahnsdorf

L 77-110

L 76-60

L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50L 76-50

L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70L 76-70

L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100L 77-100

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner36

Example #3: accidents with cyclists

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner37

Example #3: road construction plan

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner38

Example #3: looks normal

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner39

Example #3: but no view again

hedge

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner40

Example #3: no view ...

hedgecars

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner41

Example #3: redevelopment

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner42

Example #3: cheaper redevelopment

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner43

Example #4: cycling in wrong direction

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner44

Example #4: every thing is ok....

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner45

Example #4: but outside the town....

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner46

Example #4:

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner47

Example #4:

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner48

Example #4:

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner49

Example #4:

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner50

Example #4: wrong direction and no view

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner51

What did we see?

• Statistical results don‘t lead directly to solutions- Only reviewing the locations will help

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner52

What did we see?

• Problems of sight are risky ....- should be checked preventively, - best in an plan audit, - looking at more than the pure road side

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner53

What did we see:

• Problems of sight may develop with time: - road inspections are needed as a standard maintenance

- Building permission act and plan safety audit should join more

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner54

What did we see?

• Road users develop there own „safety strategies“- Road planners have to do their job... and remember that the road offers behavior setting to the user

- If you can not avoid wrong behavior allow it and support it

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner55

What did we see?

• Road functions might change with new neighbors- Road inspections have to realize the new situations and react

- Redevelopment of roads is a permanent process, as part of normal maintenance

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner56

Risk assessment in urban areas

• What are the safety problems in urban areas?- Car drivers at intersections- Cyclists at intersections- Pedestrians crossing the road- Driving to fast without sight- Behavior setting road design disregarding

users sight and possibilities- traffic planning missing actual changes

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner57

Risk assessment in urban areas

• Can we identify special areas?- Not really- Always need local approach- Traffic load determines number of conflicts

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner58

Risk assessment in urban areas

• Do we know the backgrounds?- We can only look at obviously wrong or misleading road design

- If we find some of these places we have done a lot

- Good idea to consider personal “safety strategies”

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner59

Risk assessment in urban areas

• Can we get active preventatively?- Yes, we can with standarised regular road inspections

- Yes, we can with review of suspicous road sections

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner60

Improvement in near future

• With support of EC an Expert Assistence System will be developed

• Name of Project:RANKERS

• name of the tool: EXPERTAS.eBook

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner61

EXPERTAS.eBook Starting research by accident data

Neuenhagen

1

48

57

K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15K 6425-15

K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20K 6425-20

L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40L 338-40

L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50L 338-50

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

0,6

Place to study

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner62

EXPERTAS.eBook: tool determines problem issues

Accident data

User input

rural urban

intersectionsection

traffic light No Traffic light

pedestrian

cyclists

cars

lorrys

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner63

Urban road – intersection without traffic light

Accident types

EXPERTAS.eBook: tool determines problem issues

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner64

EXPERTAS.eBook: tool makes proposals

Source:

GDV, Berlin

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner65

EXPERTAS.eBook: tool makes proposals

Source:

GDV, Berlin

© FGS Research- and Planning Group for town and traffic • www.FGSBerlin.de Date: 10-09-2005Michael Höppner66

Final paradoxon

• All that we are doing with road safety is based on repetition of accidents

• All that what we want is

to stop repetition of accidents• Preventive road inspections may help ...