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Into a warming worldWMO UNEP

R K PachauriChairman, IPCC

Director-General, TERI

State of the World SymposiumWashington

15th January 2009

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The Intergovernmental panel on climate change:

Science at the service of policy-making

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1. Experts review the first draft of the report

2. Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers

3. Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers

Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports

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+2500 scientific expert reviewers

800 contributing authors

450 lead authors

+130 countries

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

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References to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)

“Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that delay in reducing emissions significantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts”

“[…] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially the least developed countries and small island developing States, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods”

“[…] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

1. “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

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Observed changes

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Global average temperature

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Global temperature change

1900 1950 2000

Year

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y

1

0.5

0

Models using only natural forcing

Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcing

Observations

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The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas

- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

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Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

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Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since about 1970 - Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

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More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics

Ph

oto

cre

dit:

Go

od

Pla

ne

t

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

2. “Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed

during the 20th century”

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Carbon dioxide emissions

Rad

iati

ve F

orc

ing

(W

m )

Car

bo

n D

ioxi

de

(pp

m)

10000 5000 0

Time (before 2005)

-2

Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) increased markedly as a result of human activities, with an increase of 70% in 1970-2004

U.S. emissions have risen by 14.7% in 1990-2006*

*Source: EPA, 2008

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Projected surface temperature changes (2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 (oC)

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0 1 2 3 4 5 oC

WATER

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress

ECO-SYSTEMS

Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality

Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as: 15% 40% of ecosystems affected

Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk

Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional overturning circulation

FOOD

Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers

Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cereals to decrease in low latitudes decreases in low latitudes

Tendencies for some cereal productivity Cereal productivity to decrease in to increase at mid- to high latitudes some regions

COASTS

Increased damage from floods and storms

About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost

Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year

HEALTH

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, infectious diseases

Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts

Changed distribution of some disease vectors

Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999

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Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution

Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources

Increased number, intensity and duration of heatwaves will have potential for adverse health impacts

Impacts on North America

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People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:

120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia 12 to 81 million in Latin America 75 to 250 million in Africa

Expected impacts on poor regions

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia30% by 2080 in Latin America50% by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

3. “Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts;

however, they can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the

risks of climate change”

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Stabilisation scenarios

3.2 – 4.0

2.8 – 3.2

2.4 – 2.8

2.0 – 2.4

Global mean temp. increase

(ºC)

2020 – 2060590 – 710

2010 – 2030535 – 590

2000 – 2020490 – 535

2000 – 2015445 – 490

Year CO2 needs to peak

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

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Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

Stabilisation levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

Range of GDP reduction

(%)

Reduction of average annual

GDP growth rates

(percentage pts)

445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12

535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1

590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

Costs of mitigation in 2030

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GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

2030

GDP

TimeCurrent

Mitigation would postpone GDP growth by one year at most over the medium term

Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP

Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)

Schematic graph

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Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution

Increased energy security

Increased agricultural production and reduced pressure on natural ecosystems

More rural employment

Co-benefits of mitigation

Co-benefits provide the opportunity for no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs

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Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

4. “There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions

over the coming decades that could […] reduce emissions below current

levels”

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All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or

expected to be commercialised in coming decades

This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for

their development, acquisition, deployment and diffusion

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Regulations and standards

Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

Research, development and demonstration

Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices

Effective carbon-price signal

Taxes and charges

Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns

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Barack Obama’s New Energy for America plan (2008)

Create 5 million new green jobs by investing$150 billion over the next 10 years

Ensure 10% of electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025

Get 1 million hybrid cars on the road by 2015

Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050

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enable the achievement of global stabilisation targets

US action on mitigation would:

ensure US competitiveness in a world market dominated by low-carbon products

re-establish confidence in US leadership on critical global issues

The need for US involvement

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Man did not weave the web of life,

he is merely a strand in it.

Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.

Chief Seattle, 1854