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Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute

Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

R. K. Pachauri

26 June 2013Dehradun, India

Climate Change and Sustainable Development

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Climate change is unequivocal

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125,000 years ago…

The polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period

… which led to reductions in polar ice volume and sea level rise of 4 to 6 .

Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.

Warming Of The Climate System Is Now Unequivocal

Source : IPCC

Observed Changes

Global average temperature

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Source : IPCC

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Understanding climate change

Causes of change

Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004

CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80% between 1970 and 2004

Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations

Source : IPCC

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Global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 1970 to 2004

Source : IPCC

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Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts

Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply meters of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas

20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C

Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation

Source: IPCC

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Forests: properties, goods and services

Forests provide:

commercial timber goods non-timber forest products, important for

subsistence livelihoods habitat provision for biodiversity >75% of globally usable freshwater

supplies come from forested catchments recreational, cultural and spiritual

benefits.

High deforestation and degradation is leading to about ¼ of anthropogenic CO2 emissions

But forests sequester the largest fraction of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks (about 220% of atmospheric carbon)

 Forests are among the most productive terrestrial ecosystems which makes

them attractive for climate change mitigation and agricultural uses.

Source: IPCC

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Projected impacts of climate change on forests

Many forests may be impacted detrimentally from strong warming and its effects on water availability.

Drought conditions in forests can cause mortality and reduced resilience

Likelihood of increased wildfire sizes and frequencies can be altered

Stress on trees that indirectly exacerbate disturbances (such as insects or fire).

These effects may lead to losses of accumulated carbon from the soil and biosphere to the atmosphere, thereby amplifying global warming

Source: IPCC

Role and limits of adaptation Societies have a long

record of adapting to the impacts of weather and climate

Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions

Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals

Source : IPCC 10

But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effectsof climate change

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Adaptation and Mitigation

“Neither adaptation nor mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts;

however, they can complement each other and

together can significantly reduce the risks of climate

change”

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Source : IPCC

Characteristics of Stabilization Scenarios

Stabilizationlevel

(ppm CO2-eq)

Global mean temp. increase

(ºC)

Year CO2 needs to peak

Global sea level rise above pre- industrial

from thermal expansion(m)

445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000-2015 0.4 – 1.4

490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000-2020 0.5 – 1.7

535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010-2030 0.6 – 1.9

590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020-2060 0.6 – 2.4

Source : IPCC

Post-TAR stabilization scenarios

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Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth (for stabilization scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)

2030 TimeCurrent

GDP

GDP without mitigation

GDP with stringent mitigation

Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term

Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP

Source : IPCC

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Opportunities – Mitigation targets

Economic mitigation potential by sector in 2030

Source : IPCC

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Forestry mitigation options

Forestry mitigation options include:

extending carbon retention in harvested wood products

product substitution producing biomass for bio-energy

Long-term sustainable forest management strategies include:

increasing forest carbon stocks, producing sustained yields of timber,

fiber or energy from the forest

Most mitigation activities have benefits and co-benefits accruing for many years to decades.

Forestry can make a very significant contribution to a low-cost global mitigation portfolio that provides synergies with adaptation and sustainable

development. Source : IPCC

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Realization of mitigation potential

Realization of the mitigation potential

requires:

institutional capacity

investment capital

technology RD and transfer

appropriate policies and incentives

international cooperation

In many regions, the institutional context and lack of political will to implement has resulted in the opportunity for potential forestry mitigation

activities to be lost.Source : IPCC

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What is REDD Plus?

REDD + is a financial instrument to incentivize conservation and sustainable management of forests and thereby reducing GHG emissions from deforestation and forest degradationUnderlying objectives: Compensating the forest owners in developing countries for

conserving forests by putting a value on the forest carbon stocks The countries conserving forests forgo the economic gain of harvesting

them as well as the benefits from alternative land use and hence need to be compensated for the same

Costs involved in conservation and SMF needs to be shared by other countries as the forests provide a range of offsite ecosystem services that benefit all

Given the livelihood linkage of forests in many developing countries, forest conservation imposes several direct and indirect costs

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Forestry mitigation activities under the Kyoto Protocol

Forestry mitigation activities implemented under the Kyoto Protocol, (including CDM), have been limited.

Opportunities to increase activities include: simplifying procedures developing certainty over future

commitments reducing transaction costs building confidence and capacity

among potential buyers, investors and project participants

Source : IPCC

“We may utilize the gifts of Nature just as we choose but in her books, the debits are always equal to the credits”

- Mahatma Gandhi