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Methodologies of Carbon Methodologies of Carbon EstimationEstimation

ByBy

Zahabu, E & Malimbwi, R.EZahabu, E & Malimbwi, R.EDepartment of Forest Mensuration and Department of Forest Mensuration and

ManagementManagement

(SUA)(SUA)

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IntroductionIntroduction

Carbon trade involves the sale of carbon credits. Carbon trade involves the sale of carbon credits.

There are two main types of Carbon Trading There are two main types of Carbon Trading Schemes that are operating globally to-date: Schemes that are operating globally to-date:

Voluntary Carbon Trading (VCT), and Voluntary Carbon Trading (VCT), and

The official Kyoto Protocol Carbon Trading Mechanisms. The official Kyoto Protocol Carbon Trading Mechanisms.

Carbon benefit of any forest carbon project = Carbon benefit of any forest carbon project = carbon changes to known levels of precision.carbon changes to known levels of precision.

Determination of carbon changes requires Determination of carbon changes requires baselines baselines

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BaselinesBaselines Baseline: historical trends against which Baseline: historical trends against which

additional carbon benefits as a result of additional carbon benefits as a result of carbon project can be determined. carbon project can be determined.

Baseline and monitoring schemesBaseline and monitoring schemes individual project,individual project, regional e.g Eastern Arc, and regional e.g Eastern Arc, and national levelsnational levels

Requires reliable data on Requires reliable data on forest extentforest extent and and stockingstocking. .

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What Should be Measured?What Should be Measured? Forest Extent Forest Extent Forest Stocks in Five IPCC pools: Forest Stocks in Five IPCC pools:

aboveground, aboveground, belowground, belowground, litter, litter, dead wood and dead wood and soil organic carbon soil organic carbon

Widely accepted forest inventory procedures Widely accepted forest inventory procedures recommended by IPCC Good Practice Guide recommended by IPCC Good Practice Guide (IPCC, 2003)(IPCC, 2003)

CDM Approved LULUCF methodologies.CDM Approved LULUCF methodologies.

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Measurable Carbon changesMeasurable Carbon changes

Sequestration/EnhancementSequestration/Enhancement increases of forest biomass within areas of existing forestincreases of forest biomass within areas of existing forest

Conservation Conservation maintenance of a steady level of forest area and biomass density, maintenance of a steady level of forest area and biomass density, relate to forests that are already properly managed, e.g relate to forests that are already properly managed, e.g

protective forest reserves and protective forest reserves and national parks national parks could be rewarded through a special “conservation” under REDD. could be rewarded through a special “conservation” under REDD.

Reduction in emissions from deforestationReduction in emissions from deforestation i.e. based on comparisons of rates of change of forest area over i.e. based on comparisons of rates of change of forest area over

time, time,

Reductions in emissions from degradationReductions in emissions from degradation reductions in biomass/carbon stock in the forest without loss of reductions in biomass/carbon stock in the forest without loss of

forest area, forest area,

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Principles of Baseline ConstructionPrinciples of Baseline Construction

Net-net accounting:Net-net accounting: compares emissions or removal in the commitment compares emissions or removal in the commitment

period to those of a reference scenario i.e historical period to those of a reference scenario i.e historical base year (e.g. 1990) or base period (e.g. 1990-base year (e.g. 1990) or base period (e.g. 1990-2000), 2000),

Gross-net accounting:Gross-net accounting: Measurements of change of carbon stock are Measurements of change of carbon stock are

compared only over the commitment period itself. compared only over the commitment period itself.

Measure stock at the beginning of the project and Measure stock at the beginning of the project and compares this to the futurecompares this to the future

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Baseline for DeforestationBaseline for Deforestation Principle: Principle:

a reference scenario from a historical period and net-net accounting.a reference scenario from a historical period and net-net accounting. Based on remotely sensed data over a historical period which Based on remotely sensed data over a historical period which

shows change in area covered by forest.shows change in area covered by forest.

Then data on carbon stock in different types of forest are used to Then data on carbon stock in different types of forest are used to calculate the change in terms of tons of carbon. calculate the change in terms of tons of carbon.

May be projected into the future and used to credit the additional May be projected into the future and used to credit the additional mitigation benefit of the project mitigation benefit of the project

Challenges:Challenges: Setting reference base yearSetting reference base year Carbon stock data highly variable: national forest inventory not undertakenCarbon stock data highly variable: national forest inventory not undertaken Assumes carbon stock per unit area is constantAssumes carbon stock per unit area is constant

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FAO: FRA 2005FAO: FRA 2005 Tanzania used satellite imagery interpreted data of:Tanzania used satellite imagery interpreted data of:

1984 (Millington and Towsend, 1989) and compared these with 1984 (Millington and Towsend, 1989) and compared these with 1995 Hunting Technical Services (1997) for the determination of land cover 1995 Hunting Technical Services (1997) for the determination of land cover

changes in the country.changes in the country.

Annual deforestation = 412,000 ha Annual deforestation = 412,000 ha

Average stocking 36 m3/ha from CEEST, (1999) Average stocking 36 m3/ha from CEEST, (1999)

Carbon data are reported with their statistical confidence intervals Carbon data are reported with their statistical confidence intervals (expressed as (expressed as values) at known precision level. values) at known precision level.

Most previous studies had low precision levels due to low sampling Most previous studies had low precision levels due to low sampling intensity adopted. intensity adopted.

Moreover, they cover only a few forests.Moreover, they cover only a few forests.

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Baseline for DegradationBaseline for Degradation Look at rates of biomass loss within the forestLook at rates of biomass loss within the forest

This is not visible in remote sensingThis is not visible in remote sensing

Need ground measurements: No previous quality dataNeed ground measurements: No previous quality data

Possible to use one of the following techniques:Possible to use one of the following techniques: advanced remote sensing techniques (LiDAR), advanced remote sensing techniques (LiDAR), harvesting estimates from the local people, harvesting estimates from the local people, harvesting estimates from stumps counts, harvesting estimates from stumps counts, default values (rule of thumb)/modelling, or default values (rule of thumb)/modelling, or harvesting estimates from control sites. harvesting estimates from control sites.

Will be captured together with enhancement under gross-net Will be captured together with enhancement under gross-net accountingaccounting

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Degradation

Recover toward the threshold

Normal growth pattern

Time (years)

Gro

wth

Start of mgt

Forest Degradation & Enhancement BaselinesForest Degradation & Enhancement Baselines

Baseline Degrd.

Present stock Productive For

Present stock Protective for.

Start Measurements

No previous data on forest degradation & enhancementNo previous data on forest degradation & enhancement

Protective forest: to determine the rate of recovery Protective forest: to determine the rate of recovery

Productive forests: to determine the rate of degradationProductive forests: to determine the rate of degradation

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Establishment of Baseline at Establishment of Baseline at National LevelNational Level

Carryout national forest inventory to establish deforestation rates Carryout national forest inventory to establish deforestation rates and stocking levelsand stocking levels Determine land use cover changes for the period of 1975 to 1990 to 2000 to Determine land use cover changes for the period of 1975 to 1990 to 2000 to

2007 using Landsat TM (FAO, 2007)2007 using Landsat TM (FAO, 2007) Conduct case studies to quantify emission factors for different forest typesConduct case studies to quantify emission factors for different forest types

Identify drivers of deforestation Identify drivers of deforestation

Training on national forest inventories and remote sensing Training on national forest inventories and remote sensing

Development of tools for assessment and monitoring of Development of tools for assessment and monitoring of deforestationdeforestation

Monitoring in PSP/LiDAR technology to capture forest Monitoring in PSP/LiDAR technology to capture forest enhancement and/or degradation levels. enhancement and/or degradation levels.

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Establishment of Baselines at Establishment of Baselines at Projects LevelProjects Level

Review and synthesize existing studies on degradation/ Review and synthesize existing studies on degradation/ growth rates growth rates

Development and testing of methodologies to measure and Development and testing of methodologies to measure and monitor enhancement and/or forest degradation monitor enhancement and/or forest degradation

Development of tools, guidelines and manual for Development of tools, guidelines and manual for degradation assessment and monitoring degradation assessment and monitoring

Carryout assessment and monitoring of forest degradation Carryout assessment and monitoring of forest degradation in demonstration projects for establishing historic in demonstration projects for establishing historic degradation emission factors including cost implications, degradation emission factors including cost implications, and accuracy leveland accuracy level

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Carbon Assessment & Monitoring by Carbon Assessment & Monitoring by Local CommunitiesLocal Communities

This is a strategy to involve local This is a strategy to involve local communities in order tcommunities in order to reduce the o reduce the transaction costs of measuring carbontransaction costs of measuring carbon

Local communities were trained and Local communities were trained and

tasked to conduct the measurementstasked to conduct the measurements

Techniques were developed to measure Techniques were developed to measure and monitor carbon stock.and monitor carbon stock.

They are:They are:• User friendly to the users - i.e.to the User friendly to the users - i.e.to the

communitiescommunities• reliable and reliable and • presented in a format acceptable to presented in a format acceptable to

the scientific communitythe scientific community

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The equipmentThe equipment

Consists of:Consists of: A handheld computer with ArcPadA handheld computer with ArcPadTMTM 6.0 software and 6.0 software and

connected to GPS connected to GPS It is easy to useIt is easy to use Is used to locate: Is used to locate:

forestry boundaries forestry boundaries sample plots and sample plots and

recording measurement datarecording measurement data WithWith a step-by-step guide to the procedures, a step-by-step guide to the procedures, local local

communities were trained in a short time and were able to communities were trained in a short time and were able to use the system effectivelyuse the system effectively

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Steps in Carbon AssessmentSteps in Carbon Assessment

i.i. Forest mapping/stratificationForest mapping/stratification

ii.ii. Pilot survey to estimate variance and number of Pilot survey to estimate variance and number of sample plotssample plots

iii.iii.Locate the sample plots on the ground Locate the sample plots on the ground

iv.iv.Measure the dbh of all trees Measure the dbh of all trees

v.v.Set out the sub-plots for the grasses, herb and Set out the sub-plots for the grasses, herb and litter datalitter data

vi.vi.Take soil samples randomly within the plotTake soil samples randomly within the plot

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Locating sample plots on groundLocating sample plots on ground

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Measurements taken from the plotMeasurements taken from the plot

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Other forest typesOther forest types

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Data analysisData analysis The following trees stand parameters were computed:

• Density i.e. the number of stems per ha (N)• Basal area per hectare (Dominance)(G) • Volume per ha (V) and• Dry biomass / carbon (tones per ha)

Trees volume and biomass were computed using tested local existing allometric functions for the areas.

Computation were fitted on Ms Access database

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ResultsResultsWith Project CaseWith Project Case

Vegetation Vegetation typetype

LocationLocation Average Average annual annual increment increment (t/ha/yr) (t/ha/yr) 

CO2 CO2 sequestration sequestration (tCO(tCO22/ha/yr)/ha/yr)

Forest Area (ha)Forest Area (ha) Total Total sequestration sequestration (tCO(tCO22/ha/yr)/ha/yr)

WoodlandsWoodlands KitulangaloKitulangalo 2.82.8 5.35.3 600600 3,1803,180

AyasandaAyasanda 1.71.7 3.23.2 550550 1,7601,760

LowlandLowland LudewaLudewa 4.44.4 8.38.3 28.528.5 237237

MontaneMontane MgamboMgambo 5.25.2 9.89.8 156156 1,7601,760

Without Project caseWithout Project case

Vegetation Vegetation typetype

LocationLocation Average Average biomass loss biomass loss

(t/ha/yr) (t/ha/yr) 

Average COAverage CO22

Emissions Emissions (t/ha/yr) (t/ha/yr) 

Forest Area (ha)Forest Area (ha) Total COTotal CO22

Emissions Emissions (tCO2/ha/yr)(tCO2/ha/yr)

WoodlandWoodland KitulangaloKitulangalo 11 1.81.8 600600 10141014

MontaneMontane MgamboMgambo 3.53.5 6.56.5 156156 10801080

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Conclusions & RecommendationsConclusions & Recommendations

Methods exists to assess and measure Methods exists to assess and measure forest carbon, however these are forest carbon, however these are complex to the userscomplex to the users

More studies are required for the More studies are required for the Development of user friendly tools for the Development of user friendly tools for the assessment and monitoring forest carbonassessment and monitoring forest carbon

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The End!The End!

Thank You!!!Thank You!!!

Ahsanteni Sana!!!Ahsanteni Sana!!!