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Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Integrated Options for Human Exploration Discussion

August 12, 2009

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Topics for Discussion

1. Review and summarize potential decisions on human exploration

2. Review options that have been analyzed

3. Groundwork for Cost/Schedule

4. Evaluation Analysis to follow

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

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Decisions (1 of 3)

1. What is the phase out plan of the Shuttle?– Fly out remainder of flights safely (Currently part of policy, but FY 11

funding not part of President’s budget)– Extend Shuttle at 1-2 flights per year through 2015 (Only in conjunction

with extended ISS, SDV derived heavy lifter and commercial crew)

2. What is the future of the ISS?– End US participation in ISS at the end of 2015 – Continue US participation, through at least 2020 (Possible to use at

minimal capability, or at enhanced level of US utilization)

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

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Shuttle to Manifest Flyout (est. 2011)

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

• Advantages:– Prudent fly-out schedule – Allows realistic budget planning

• Disadvantages:– Additional cost to current plan (but is likely

closer to reality)• Notes:

– No operational impact to Constellation program

– Little change in workforce reduction

• Rationale: – Little margin remains in the shuttle schedule; experience indicates that it will

take longer than currently projected to safely fly out the manifest. This scenario is more realistic, and would avoid undue pressure to complete flights within a particular budget year.

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Shuttle to 2015

• Advantages:– Reduces the gap in US human launch capability– Supports robust US and International utilization

of the ISS– Smooth workforce transition– Takes maximum advantage of existing

infrastructure and production capabilities (cost savings, which should be investigated)

• Disadvantages:– Cost not currently carried in the budget

• Mitigated when coupled with Shuttle-Derived HLV

– Extends life of shuttle; independent risk assessment recommended

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

• Extend shuttle at 1-2 flights/year through 2015 (partially close gap)

• Analyzed in conjunction with Shuttle-derived HLV

• Rationale: The most realistic way to significantly reduce the gap (and to robustly use ISS’ full capability)

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ISS to 2015

• Resupply and logistics with IP and COTS

• Would require International Partner decision to transfer to other form of organization with lower US burden after 2015, or retire

• Continue with Program of Record plan (FY10 budget) to de-orbit ISS in 2016. Continue present utilization focus within existing utilization budget. Resupply and logistics by IP and COTS vehicles Crew transport via Soyuz

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

• Continue with historical plan of ending primary US support for ISS in 2015

• Focus work there on science and preparation for exploration to the extent possible

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ISS to 2020

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

• Opportunity to expand international partnership

• Development of technology and understanding of human research issues in preparation for exploration

• Opportunity for full realization of national lab concept

• Inclusion of new partners to be aligned with US national interests

• Enhance US participation through 2020• Demonstrate commitment to full utilization of ISS

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Decisions (2 of 3)

3. Should the government developed launch system be based on NASA/Shuttle heritage or an EELV based systems?

– Ares I plus Ares V (no refueling)– Ares V lite dual launch, enhanced with (potentially commercial)

refueling)– Directly Shuttle derived vehicle, enhanced with (potentially commercial)

refueling)– EELV H plus SH, enhanced with (potentially commercial) refueling

4. How should crew be carried to LEO (ISS in particular)?– US government provided systems – Commercial/international (implies eventual operational backup by US

government system)

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Ares I plus Ares V

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Ares ICharacteristics:

5 Segment RSRB first stageJ-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 26 mT Crew

Ares VCharacteristics:

(2) 5.5 Segment RSRB’s(6) RS-68B LOX/LH2 first stageJ-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 159 mT Cargo

• NASA heritage components• Ares 1 for US crew transport to ISS and Earth Orbit

Rendezvous with Ares 5 for crewed flights• Ares V alone for cargo

+

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Ares V Lite

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Ares V lite x 2Characteristics:

(2) 5 Segment RSRB’s(6) RS-68A LOX/LH2 first stageJ-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 143 mT

• Ares V Lite is a human rated simplified version of baseline Ares V

• Uses as cargo vehicle, crew delivery beyond LEO, the human rated as US backup for commercial launch

• When use in lunar missions, two Ares V are used in “dual mode”

• Rendezvous can occur either in Earth Orbit or Lunar Orbit

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Shuttle Derived Vehicle

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

SidemountCharacteristics:

(2) 4 Segment RSRB’s(3) RS-25E LOX/LH2 first stageJ-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 92 - 105 mT

Commercial Crew TransportCharacteristics:

LOX/RP-1 first stageLOX/RP-1 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 8 - 10 mT

• Commercial transport to ISS and to LEO for EOR with SDV

• Multiple Shuttle derived vehicles possible

• For Moon, crewed mission is crew taxi + 3 launches, cargo is one launch

Jupiter 241Characteristics:

(2) 4 Segment RSRB’s(4) RS-25E LOX/LH2 first stageJ-2X LOX/LH2 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 106 mT

+ or

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ELV Super Heavy Launch

Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

ELV Super HeavyCharacteristics:

LOX/RP-1 first stageLOX/LH2 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 75 mT

• Commercial crew transport to ISS and earth orbit rendezvous with EELV Super Heavy

• Several options for SH with LOX/RP-1 based first stage • For Moon, crewed mission is crew taxi + 3 launches, cargo is

one (or potentially two) launches

Commercial Crew TransportCharacteristics:

LOX/RP-1 first stageLOX/RP-1 upper stage

Performance:LEO: 8 - 10 mT

+

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Tanker Description:•Single tanker launched to orbit, or•Depot deployed in orbit and refueled•Autonomous on-orbit rendezvous and fuel transfer• May be used to top off or completely fill upper stages before

leaving Earth Orbit

Advantages:• Increased deliver mass to target for give size booster and

upper stage• May result in smaller booster requirements due dry payloads•Enable commercial market

Disadvantages:• Additional launches required compared to single large

booster• Advanced cryogenic fluid management technology needed• Fluid coupling and transfer technology needed

Propellant Storage & Transfer

Depot

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Decisions (3 of 3)

5. What is the first destination for exploration beyond LEO?– Moon with surface exploration focused on base– Moon with surface exploration focused on global exploration– Deep space with no surface exploration immediately– Mars first , with surface exploration

128 total possible options for consideration

• Plus: Is the budget constrained to the budget guidance?

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Destination Description: Lunar Base (~Program of Record)

• Key Capabilities– Sortie, Extended Stay, and Outpost capability– Pervasive Mobility; ability to explore an extended

range (25–100 km) around landing sites– Solar power with sufficient energy storage to keep

assets alive between human visits– Habitation– Emphasis on understanding the lunar environment

and its applicability to human exploration objectives• Developing & testing science protocols• Testing planetary protection approaches• Improving reliability and functionality of EVA & life support

systems• Testing systematic approaches for resolving complex

problems such as dust mitigation and radiation protection

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Lunar Base Representative Architecture

Separate crew and cargo missions are used to build the Lunar Base over timeReview of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

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Lunar Crew

Stay Cap.

Year

7 Days

28Days

Human Lunar Return

Initial Power,

Habitation, Mobility

Advanced ECLSS, Full Habitation,

Continuous Presence,1 ton O2 per year produced

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 118

14 Days

14-day roves

Full Communications

45Days

180 Days

180Days

180 Days

28 Days

Lunar Base Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities

Max Power Generation,

Nighttime Ops

Non-Polar Sortie (PoR)

180 Days

180 Days

180 Days

Mars Mission Analogs,Expanded Resource Extraction

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Destination Description: Lunar Global

• Uses self-contained or potentially mobile outposts to provide surface habitation (14 to180 day stay capability)

• Lays the technology groundwork for Mars by developing subsystems and technologies that are forward extensible to Mars, but does not explicitly continue to Mars exploration

• Independent outpost configurations are flexible and adaptable to landing site

• Surface elements can be relocated from one site to another between crewed missions

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Lunar Global Representative Architecture

• 56 Days Max Duration

• 210 Cumulative Surface Days• 1 Cargo Flights• 5 Crewed Flights• Unpres Mobility

• 4 Sortie Missions• 4 Locations

• 7 Surface Days Each

Sortie Phase Extended Duration - Site A Extended Duration - Site B Extended Duration - Site C

Sites 1-4

Site 5Site 6

Site 7

• 84 Days Max Duration

• 280 Cumulative Surface Days• 2 Cargo Flights• 6 Crewed Flights• Pres Mobility

• 182 Days Max Duration• 308 Cumulative Surface Days

• 4 Cargo Flights

• 6 Crewed Flights• Pres Mobility + Relocatable Hab

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Lunar Global Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 118

Sortie Flights

Extended Duration

Location A

Extended Duration

Location B

Extended Duration

Location CTest

Flights

56 Day Stays

84 Day Stays /

Extended Mobility

182 Day Stays

Site1

Site2

Site3

Site4

Site5

Site6

Site7

Habitat

Habitat

HLR

1st Cargo Flight

Year

Small Pressurized Rover (SPR)

Habitat #1

Small Pressurized Rover (SPR)

Small Pressurized Rover (SPR)

Habitat #2

Small Pressurized Rover (SPR)

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Destination Description: Mars First

• Primary objective is Mars exploration• All systems are designed for Mars • Development and test plan is created to reduce risk and

gain confidence and experience with the Mars exploration system

• The Moon is not a conceptual test bed for Mars, but an actual test bed for Mars

• Systems would be used for surface exploration on the Moon as well

• Commercial participation would be enhancing, probably be limited to activities such as launch to LEO

• The human exploration of the Moon and Mars would be complementary to the ongoing robotic exploration, and synergies would be exploited, but not fundamentally drive the program

• Assume technology investments can be made to increase TRL 2 and above technologies to appropriate TRL

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Crewed MTV

Crew: Jettison droptank after TMI; ~180 days out to Mars

MAV ascent to orbit

Crew: ~180 days back to Earth

Cargo:~350 days to Mars

6 Ares-V Cargo Launches

Ares-I Crew Launch

~26months

~30months

1

2

4

6

7

8

9

11

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Crew: Use Orion/SM to transfer to Hab Lander;

then EDL on Mars

Orion direct Earth return

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3Habitat Lander AC

into Mars Orbit

5ISRU / propellant

production for MAV

10 ~540 days on Mars

CargoMTVs

AC / EDL of MDAV / Cargo Lander

Crew: Jettison DM & contingencyconsumables

prior to TEI

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3 Ares-V Cargo Launches

Source: MSFC

Mars First Representative Architecture

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Mars First Representative ArchitectureLunar Dress Rehearsal

Crew:3 Days to TLI

Surface Ops Ascent to Orbit

Crew:3 Days to Earth

Cargo:3 Days To Surface

Cargo to Surface & Orbit

Cargo Launches Crew Launch

~10 months approximately 2 years

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10

9Crew:

Less than 2 years at Moon

Earth Return

CargoLaunches

1. Assy of DAV and Hab/Lander to two 2 stg TMI Stages2. 2 TMI’s; coast to Moon3. DAV lands, TLI/descent-stage puts Hab/lander into orbit4. Assy of transit Hab and 3 TMI modules5. Crew in CM docks with stack6. 2 modules perform first TMI burn, 1 performs second;

coast to moon7. TransitHab docks with Hab/Lander; crew transfers and

descends8. Surface ops; crew ascends then docks with transitHab9. TEI; coast to earth10. CM separation; entry; landing

6 Launches30 days apart

4 Launches30 days apartapart

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Mars First Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Year

FirstCargo

ToMars

Mars Transit Habitat

Demonstration

180Days 180Days

Ascent Stage

Demonstration

Subscale EDLISRUMSR

RoboticLandings

FirstHumans

OnMars

In Space TransportationCargo Landers

Crew Vehicle

ISS NEO MarsMars Mars Mars Mars

SecondMission

ToMars

Mars

ThirdMission

ToMars

Mars

Crew and

Cargo to the Moon

Crew and Cargo

Delivered to Lunar

Surface – 2 year

Operations

Repeat

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Destination Description: Flexible Path

A Flexible Path of Human and Robotic Exploration:• Crewed exploration missions to many places in the inner solar system• Orbit planets with deep gravity wells, but do not land on the surface • Rendezvous with small planetary bodies such as NEOs and Mars moon Phobos• Tele-robotically explore and sample planetary surfaces

L4

L2

L1

L3

L5

Phobos & Deimos

Earth

Moon

Venus

Mars

NEOs

Sun - EarthL1

Sun - EarthL2

Value of flexible destinations:• Scientific knowledge and science operations support• Demonstrate capability of exploring in free space under conditions that we will meet on

the way to Mars

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Flexible Path Representative Architecture

Near Earth21+ day duration

Sun-Earth Vicinity

30-90 day duration

Limited Inner Solar System~200 day duration

Inner Solar System>365 day duration

Minimum Capability

7-14 day duration

Zero boil off & Refueling

L1

L2

Sun – Earth L2

Sun – Earth L1

NEOs

MarsPhobos

Lunar Flyby

Earth’s Lagrange

Points

MarsFlyby

NEOs

Flexible Path is a sequence of missions with increasing capability into the inner solar system

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Flexible Path Off Ramp to Lunar: Milestones, Destinations & Capabilities

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 118

Lunar Sortie Flights

Lunar Extended Duration

Location A

Lunar Surface

Test Flights

Site1

Site2

Site3

Site4

Site5

Lander with Habitat

Human Lunar Return

1st Habitat Flight

Year

7 Days

32Days

UnpilotedLunar Test

LunarFlyby

NEO (2007 UN12)

10 Days

EarthMoon

L1

Sun Earth

L2

Sun Earth

L1

90Days

190 Days

First Humans to

NEOs

Humans in Interplanetary

Space

21 Days

Humans in Cislunar Space

Sun Earth Vicinity

Near Earth

Precursor Landers / Rovers

Human to Mars Vicinity

MarsFlyby

440 Days

Extended Robotic Presence

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Main option Budget 2010-2020 Shuttle Life ISS Life Government

Launch Crew to LEO Beyond LEO Destination

1 -Program of Record (as it

would be consistently costed and scheduled)

not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2015 Ares I, Ares V Ares I + Orion Lunar

sortie/outpost

   2 - Baseline Derived fom Program of

Record

constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2015 Ares I, Ares V Ares I + Orion Lunar

sortie/outpost

   3A - ISS focused

(Ares I)constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020 Ares I, Ares V Ares I + Orion Lunar

sortie/outpost   

3B - ISS focused (commercial

crew)constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020 Ares V Lite Commercial Lunar

sortie/outpost   

5 - Use Shuttle Systems

not constrained to FY10 Budget 2015 2020 Directly Shuttle

Derived Commercial Lunar sortie/outpost

Integrated Options (1 of 3)

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Main option Budget 2010-2020 Shuttle Life ISS Life Government

Launch Crew to LEO Beyond LEO Destination

4 - Dash out of LEO

constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2015 Ares V Lite Commercial

Lunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby,

Moon   

6 - Deep Space not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020 Ares V Lite +

refueling CommercialLunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby,

Moon   

7 - Deep Space (EELV)

not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020

Commercial HC 75mt +

refluelingCommercial

Lunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby,

Moon   

7b - Deep Space (Shuttle)

not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020 Directly Shuttle

Derived CommercialLunar orbit, L's, NEO, Mars flyby,

Moon

Integrated Options (2 of 3)

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  Budget 2010-2020 Shuttle Life ISS Life Government

Launch Crew to LEO Beyond LEO Destination

8 - Lunar Global not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020 Ares V Lite Commercial

Lunar sortie/extended

stay   

9 - Lunar Global (EELV)

not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020

Commercial HC 75mt +

refuelingCommercial

Lunar sortie/extended

stay   

10 - Mars First not constrained to FY10 Budget 2011 2020 Ares V

+refueling Commercial Mars with lunar test flight

Integrated Options (3 of 3)

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Next discussion topic: Cost and schedule analysis – Dr. Ride