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1 Shareholder Information Meeting Radisson Penn Harris Hotel & Convention Center, Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, Tuesday, December 1 st , 2009
Transcript

1

Shareholder Information Meeting

Radisson Penn Harris Hotel & Convention Center,

Camp Hill, Pennsylvania,

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

2

This document contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the US Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, regarding the belief or current expectations of the Group, AIB’s Directors and other members of its senior management about the Group’s financial condition, results of operations and business of the Group and certain of the plans and objectives of the Group, including statements relating to possible future write-downs or impairments. In particular, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, risk management, competition and the impact of changes in Financial Reporting Standards are forward-looking in nature. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to historical or current facts. Forward looking statements sometimes use words such as ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘would, ‘will, ‘aim’, ‘anticipate’, ‘target’, ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘goal’, ‘believe’, or other words of similar meaning. Examples of forward-looking statements include, among others, statements regarding the Group’s future financial position, income growth, business strategy, projected costs, capital position, estimates of capital expenditures, and plans and objectives for future operations. Because such statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information.

These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of AIB and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results of developments expressed or implied from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied include, but are not limited to, changes in economic conditions globally and in the regions in which the Group conducts its business, changes in fiscal or other policies adopted by various governments and regulatory authorities, the effects of competition in the geographic and business areas in which the Group conducts its operations, the ability to increase market share and control expenses, the effects of changes in taxation or accounting standards and practices, acquisitions, future exchange and interest rates, the risk that the Group may not participate in NAMA or that the NAMA Scheme may turn out to be unsuccessful in achieving its goals, the lack of control over the nature, number and valuation of the assets to be transferred to NAMA and the success of the Group in managing these events.

The Group cautions that the foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Investors and others should carefully consider the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events when making an investment decision based on any forward-looking statement. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events discussed in this Report may not occur. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this document. Except as required by the Irish Financial Regulator, the Irish Stock Exchange, the UK Financial Services Authority, the London Stock Exchange or applicable law, AIB does not have any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, further events or otherwise. AIB expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to publicly release any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained in this document or incorporated by reference to reflect any change in AIB’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.

visit www.aibgroup.com/investorrelations

Forward looking statements

The following commentary is on a continuing operations basis. The growth percentages (excl. EPS) are shown on an underlying basis, adjusted for the impact of exchange rate movements on the translation of foreign locations’ profit and excluding interest rate hedge volatility.

Alan KellyGeneral Manager Group Finance

4

Agenda

Introduction and welcome

Key developments and performance review

Shareholders’ questions

5

Major events for AIB; September 2008 – December 20092008

September Introduction of Irish Government Guarantee

December Irish Government initial announcement on recapitalisation of Irish banks

2009

January Nationalisation of Anglo Irish Bank; Market concerns re Irish sovereign

February AIB & Irish Government announce a €3.5bn recapitalisation by way of Core Tier 1 preference shares

March Nil final dividend for 2008 recommended

April Irish Government announces National Asset Management Agency (NAMA)

AIB announces retirement of CEO, CFO and appointment of new Chairman

June Successful capital exchange offer, boosting equity capital by c. €1.1bn

September Minister for Finance outlines NAMA terms AIB announces intention to raise additional capital over 12-18 months timeframe

November Restructuring plan submitted to European Commission Enactment of NAMA legislation Senior management changes at AIB

6

Tough economic conditions

Ireland Good initial progress in improving competitiveness, exports outperforming Difficult budget decisions must continue to be made Overdependence on construction rapidly diminishing Unemployment continues to increase; expected to average c.13.6% in 2010

Ireland -7.7 -2.5

UK -4.4 1.0

Poland 0.5 1.5

Eurozone -4.0 1.0

US -2.6 1.9

World -1.1 3.1Source: AIB ERU Forecasts

% volume 2009 f 2010 f

GDP

7

Major changes have materially affected AIB Lower demand for loans

Increased cost of deposits / funding

Liquidity severely curtailed

Significant increase in forecast 2009 bad debts charge

Mar 09 €2.9bn

May 09 €4.3bn

Aug 09 €4.3bn+

Nov 09 €5.3bn

NAMA transfer - €24bn identified by Minister for Finance; discount yet to be finalised

Potential impact of European Commission restructuring plan, not yet known

Adjusted basic EPS H1 2009 (164.4c)

ADR US$5.20 (on Nov 26th 2009)

8

Operating performance €1.1bn* underlying pre-provision profit in H1 2009; €2bn* forecast for full year 2009 Performance driven by

Diverse multi-national sources of income underlining importance of international diversification Continued downward trend in costs

Loan and deposit volumes Weak loan demand, 2009 gross customer loans to be broadly in line with 2008 Deposit stability continues; full year balance expected to increase over half year level in 2009 Credit current account volumes stabilised since Q1

Net interest margin NIM attrition of c. 25bps expected in 2009 from 221bps in 2008 Driven by cost of customer deposits, partly offset by improving returns on loans and higher

treasury margins Other income

Non- interest income expected to reduce by over 10% in 2009, mainly attributed to lower fees from banking activity, investment banking, asset management and cost of the government guarantee partly offset by some bond disposals

Costs Cost reductions to continue, targeting further decrease of 5% for 2009 Staff numbers reduced by 1,500 in 9 months to September

* excludes capital exchange offer

9

Criticised loans - definitions

Watch

Credit exhibiting weakness but with the expectation that existing debt can be fully

repaid from normal cashflow

Vulnerable

Credit where repayment is in jeopardy from normal cash flow and may be

dependent on other sources

Impaired

A loan is impaired if there is objective evidence of impairment as a result of one or

more events that occurred after the initial recognition of the assets (a “loss event”)

and that loss event (or events) has an impact such that the present value of future

cash flows is less than the current carrying value of the financial asset or group of

assets i.e. requires a provision to be raised through the profit and loss

10

Credit deterioration

Criticised loans increased by €17.9bn to June 09. AIB Bank RoI accounts for c. 75% of this increase, with AIB Bank UK 15%, Capital Markets 5% and CEE 5%. H2 increase to be significantly less

Weakening trends evident across portfolios / sectors

Property & construction sector 72% of H1 increase

6531 7394 817211190 12269 14023 140872250 2816

4302

887310565

10233 8503

1720

2991

4203

47567128 10804

1440

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Jun Sep Dec Mar Apr May Jun

Watch Vulnerable Impaired2008 2009

Total criticised by value €m

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Specific % of IBNR % of Total % ofProvision Avg Provision Avg Provision Avg

P&L Advs P&L Advs (P&L) Advs€m % €m % €m %

AIB Bank RoI 1,794 4.65 117 0.30 1,911 4.95

Capital Markets 171 1.31 30 0.23 201 1.54

AIB Bank UK 188 1.79 0 0.00 188 1.79

CEE 58 1.38 15 0.36 73 1.74

Group Total 2,211 3.33 162 0.25 2,373 3.58

Credit charges – H1 2009

12

Specific IBNR % of Total % ofImpaired % of Provision Provision Earning Provision Impaired

Loans Advs (B/S) Cover (B/S) Advs (B/S) Loans€m % €m % €m % €m %

AIB Bank RoI 8,516 10.9 2,439 29 1,018 1.46 3,457 41

Capital Markets 667 2.6 282 42 50 0.20 332 50

AIB Bank UK 1,220 5.6 342 28 166 0.81 508 42

CEE 401 4.7 167 42 84 1.05 251 63

Group Total 10,804 8.1 3,230 30 1,318 1.07 4,548 42

Balance sheet provisions – June 2009

13

€m ROI UK CM Poland Group

Commercial Investment 10,889 3,562 5,199 1,245 20,895

Residential Investment 2,407 1,317 483 36 4,243

Commercial Development 6,182 685 375 704 7,946

Residential Development 10,877 3,154 413 599 15,043

Contractors 674 334 41 140 1,189

Balances 31,029 9,052 6,511 2,724 49,316

Property & construction – sub sector profile June 2009 *

* an element of management estimation has been applied in this sub-categorisation** excludes €0.6bn in Housing Associations

**

14

Asset quality update*

Deterioration continues; pace slowing

Bad debt charge heavily weighted to loans identified for potential transfer to NAMA and predominantly in the Republic of Ireland

Some stabilisation in RoI “non-NAMA” loans; no material increase in provision requirement since H1 2009

International portfolios - impaired loans & bad debt charges higher than previous years reflecting more difficult conditions in all markets

Prudent balance sheet provisions

Provision charges expected to be lower in Capital Markets & CEE and

broadly similar in UK in H2 2009 relative to H1 2009

* per Interim Management Statement

15

National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) – an overview

Asset exchange programme, primarily RoI and UK property portfolios

Quantum of loans to be transferred and asset values not yet finalised

c. €17bn land & development and c. €7bn “associated” loans may transfer

Transfers to be phased over 2010

Valuation on a bottom up, case by case basis

Capital position and pre-provision operating profit will both be significantly

influenced by NAMA outcome

To be considered by shareholders at EGM on 23rd December

16

Loans that may transfer to NAMA

Landbank & Development Associated Total€bn €bn €bn

Republic of Ireland 14.2 6.4 20.6

United Kingdom 2.6 0.7 3.3

Rest of world 0.2 - 0.2

17.0 17.1 24.1

Performing at 30th June 2009 c. 17.4

Impaired at 30th June 2009 c. 6.7

Forecast performing at 31st December 2009 c.13.6

Forecast impaired at 31st December 2009 c.10.5

Balance sheet provisions at 30th June 2009 c. 2.3

Forecast balance sheet provisions at 31st December 2009 c. 4.2

17

Capital position H1 2009

8.5%

4.25%

10.7%

7.8%

Total capital ratio

Tier 1 ratio AIB

AIB

Regulatory min.

Regulatory min.

Capital ratios strengthened by €3.5bn Government investment and €1.1bn gain from the capital exchange offer

Capital ratios above regulatory requirements

NAMA effect to emerge over coming months

Continuing to actively consider a range of potential sources of additional capital; firm resolve to strengthen capital position

18

Potential sources of capital

Equity markets

Strategic investment

Asset sales / business disposals

Government commitment to assist and support

19

AIB’s funding diversity - September 2009

Stable customer deposits – 50%

Wholesale funding – 40%

Capital – 10%

Wholesale market liquidity has significantly improved

Some pricing improvement; conditions remain more challenging than historic norms

NAMA bonds will be a further significant boost to liquidity

Recent raising of €1.75bn unsecured unguaranteed term funding

20

Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM)

EGM to be held on December 23rd at 11:00 GMT in Dublin

Proposals:

To approve AIB’s participation in the NAMA Programme

To permit AIB to convene certain shareholder meetings on 14 days notice

Timetable:

Dec 9th Mailing of proxy material to ADR holders begins

Dec 18th Voting cut off date

21

AIB Bank Republic of Ireland

Loss before tax (€1,522m) in H1 2009 driven by steep increase in bad debts

Income pressure, particularly cost of deposits are key drivers of reduced

operating profits

Developing our franchise by supporting customers and the economy

c. 42,000 credit facilities, €1.85bn extended to SMEs Jan – Oct 2009

8 out of 10 SME credit enquiries are approved (independent customer research)

Opening 15 dedicated SME business centres nationwide

Providing 1 in 3 of all mortgages, up from 1 in 6 a year ago

Zero forced repossessions of owner occupied homes

22

Profit before tax 13% to €252m in H1 2009 due to increased bad debts (lower bad

debt charge expected in H2 2009 vs H1 2009)

High income growth combined with aggressive cost management

Global Treasury; delivering strong profit growth Well chosen market positions, delivering continuing profits

Improving margins in customer business; well placed to benefit in higher demand

environment

Corporate Banking; strong risk management Focus on de-leveraging balance sheet, margins improving

Impaired loans spread across geographies / sectors

Franchises well placed for recovery in corporate demand

Investment Banking; lower customer activity Lower income from asset management and investment banking activities

Costs reduced in low revenue environment

Capital Markets

23

Loss before tax (£28m) in H1 2009 due to increased bad debts charge driven

by property market downturn

Strong management action in low income environment Intense focus on cost control Better loan prices; improving margins Higher deposit and funding costs

Great Britain Profitable business banking franchise despite severe economic conditions Weak demand for credit; deposits stabilised (Q1 deposit outflow now stemmed) Increased provisions due to deterioration in property & construction with some

contagion to other business sectors

First Trust Bank (Northern Ireland) Increased provisions largely driven by property & construction sector and

landbank lending in particular

AIB Bank United Kingdom

24

Poland

Franchise investment coincided with significant economic downturn; 514 branches include 145 added since H2 2007

Targeting small increase in loans in 2009 Higher margins in personal market

Deposits stabilised

Improving trends in asset management & brokerage

Increased provisions across all sectors, particularly property and cash loans

Strong liquidity, loan / deposit ratio 85%,

Larger, well developed franchise set to outperform in next Polish growth phase

Remainder of CEE Division

BACB: value impairment of €45m in H1 2009

AmCredit: continued deterioration in Baltic mortgage market

Central & Eastern European (CEE) Division

25

M&T

Strong outperformance continuing – M&T is one of only 3 peer banks to

report a profit in every quarter of 2007, 2008 and 2009

Underlying EPS $.98c in Q3, 24% on Q2

Q3 core deposits 18% annualised (ex 2009 acquisitions)

Net interest margin to 3.61% in Q3

Improved fee income and strong residential mortgage banking revenues

Provident Bankshares Corporation acquisition completed – accretive in Q2

Careful and conservative risk management

Second highest coverage ratio among peers, while maintaining the lowest ratio of net charge-offs to average loans

€200m impairment charge to AIB investment in H1 2009

* diluted net operating earnings per share

26

Summary

Material deterioration in AIB’s condition over past 18 months

Our decisions accentuated a very challenging banking environment

Irish State an important source of support

NAMA and European Commission restructuring plan will alter the shape

of AIB

Further cost reductions required in low income environment

Firm resolve to rebuild AIB’s business and shareholder value

Questions

28

Contacts

+353-1-660 0311

+353-1-641 2075

Alan Kelly [email protected] +353-1-6412162

Rose O’Donovan rose.m.o’[email protected] +353-1-6414191

Pat Clarke [email protected] +353-1-6412381

Maura Hodnett [email protected] +353-1-6413469

Our Group Investor Relations Department will be happy to

facilitate your requests for any further information

Visit our website www.aibgroup.com/investorrelations


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