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The Climate-Land Interaction Project Lab

Climate Change Links to Changes in Land Use, Crops, Livestock, Natural Ecosystems and Health

Universityof Nairobi

University of Dar Es SalaamUniversity of

Dar Es Salaam

NSF BCS Awards 0308420, 0709671 & 0921952, NIH Award 5R21GM084714-02,Rockefeller Foundation Grant

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The CLIP “Loop”

INTEGRATIVESpatial and temporal scales

Uncertainty analysisFeedbacks and tipping points

Systems paradigmsBroader impacts

INTEGRATIVESpatial and temporal scales

Uncertainty analysisFeedbacks and tipping points

Systems paradigmsBroader impacts

CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Regional Local

LAND COVERNPP SIMULATIONS

LAND USE CHANGE

Case Studies

ModelsRole Playing

Games

Crops RangelandRemote Sensing

CaseStudies

Human Systems

Global Climate

CLIMATE DYNAMICS

Regional Local

LAND COVERNPP SIMULATIONS

LAND USE CHANGE

Case Studies

ModelsRole Playing

Games

Crops RangelandRemote Sensing

CaseStudies

Human Systems

Global Climate

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CLIP & Eaclipse Teamsince ~1995

MSU people:• Jennifer Olson • Gopal Alagarswamy • Jeff Andresen• David Campbell • Robert Glew• Dave Lusch • Joe Messina• John Metzler • Nathan Moore • Jiaguo Qi• Sarah Hession• Almaz Naizghi• Chuan Qin

Institutional Partners:• Virginia Tech• Ohio University• University of Dar es Salaam,

Tanzania• Dar es Salaam University

College of Education, Tanzania

• International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya

• KARI, Kenya• Makerere University, Uganda• University of Edinburgh, UK• Univ of Hamburg, Germany• Purdue University• NOAA

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Domain and LUC analyses:Kenya, Tanzania,Uganda.

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The CLIP & EACLIPSE Current Activities

1. Statistical analysis of historical trends in climate and RS data

2. Climate, crop-climate, vegetation-climate and water-climate modeling

3. Ecological & socioeconomic fieldwork4. Developing educational products in Mich

& Tanz5. Policy workshops, presentations & papers6. Students (Purdue, VPI, OU, Univ of Dar,

MSU)

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Fieldwork in Kenya and TanzaniaSurveys, Meetings, Veg. Plots

Socio-economic Ecological

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Educational ActivitiesNew TZ college course,

HS & MS CurriculumMichigan Teachers

in TanzaniaTanzanian College of Ed

Lecturers

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Climate & Coupled Modeling

Regional East Africa domain (18 km), and nested boxes (6 km)

• Climate: RAMS / CCSM (Hadley, ECHam) with MSU’s HPC, CLIP’s Kili cluster

• Crop: CERES Maize• Grass: CENTURY• Surface Water: SWAT• Remote sensing: GIMMS, MODIS, Landsat

for LUC, phenological analyses (improvement of RAMS, productivity changes, seasonality changes, etc.)

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Differences in Temperature (RCM)

Climate Change LCLUC Combined EffectsEffects Effects

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Differences in Precipitation (RCM)

Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic EffectsEffects Change (LCLUC) Effects

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Green=increase in yieldsBrown=decline in yields

Difference in maize yields due to GHG and LUC 2000 to 2050

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Maize & bean production changes2000, 2030 to 2050

by country, farming system(mean of combination of 4 scenarios of HadCM3 & ECHam4)

Source: Thornton, Jones, Alagarswamy, Andresen & Herrero, 2010, Agricultural Systems.

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Vegetation and Carbon / Climate Modeling in Century

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Linked Projects in Africa1. Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural

Systems in East Africa. PI Jennifer Olson. Rockefeller Foundation.2. Linking Local Knowledge and Local Institutions for the Study of

Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Participatory GIS in Northern Tanzania. PI Smucker (Ohio Univ), Olson (MSU). NSF Award BSC 0921952.

3. Impacts of climate and land use change on Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) distribution: A Dynamic Ecological Simulation Model of Tsetse transmitted Trypanosomiasis in Kenya. PI Joe Messina. NIH Award 5R21GM084714-02.

4. Tanzania Partnership Project. PI Jeff Riedinger. Funded by a private donor.

5. (pending) Impacts of climate, land use and management change on Bovine TP: Modeling the Ecological and Socioeconomic Determinants of Tuberculosis Transmission in Humans, Livestock and Wildlife. PI John Kaneene. Submitted to NSF, NIH.

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Websites

http://clip.msu.eduhttp://eaclipse.msu.edu

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Regional climate modeling (Nathan Moore)

• I used HPC for 100 Amazon simulations (each of which took 8 months to run)

• 24 China simulations that each took about 6 months.

• I ran Kili for YEARS to do several multi-decadal runs, each decade taking about a month for a variety of cases. I also used Kili for a huge swath of sensitivity studies to calibrate RAMS for East Africa, and that took something like 8 months to complete, way back in 2004-2005.

• I couldn't run RAMS on NCAR (it compiled, but it always crashed). They know about it; it's a well-known mystery.