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World BankLand Market Assessment Training – February 28th
Part 1 – spatial tools to analyze the impact of land markets on
affordability and urban spatial structures
By Alain Bertaud
[email protected] papers and reports available at:
http://alain-bertaud.com/
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The following statements indicate an urgent need for serious analysis:
• “We have a severe land shortage”• “land is too expensive because of speculation”• “the city is expanding in the wrong direction”• “densities are too low”• “densities are too high”• “sprawl”• “private sector is only interested in building for
the rich”
When do we know we have to look at land markets?
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Some quantitative indicators may be available and point to a land market problem:
• land use indicators� increase in share of informal sector land
development� decreasing numbers of housing built every year� large areas of vacant land inside the built-up
area� increase in densities without increase in floor
area ratio• price indicators
� rapid increase in real estate prices� increase in price/income ratio� low % of rental housing
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First things we need to know about land markets
• How is the market segmented? Preparation of a housing typology
• identify and quantify the various housing product on the market (price, floor area, land area, location), relate it to income
• Assess variations in flows and stock per housing type• Price of developed land as % of housing price?• Price of vacant developed land compared to
undeveloped land
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Sequence of tasks and tools available:After informal discussions with key players: government officials, households,
public and private sector, informal sector
Step 1: overall physical view of market segmentation and identification of housing typology; � acquisition of satellite imagery Ikonos, Quickbird, Spot ($10, to $50 /km2, from
a week to one year delay)� Google Earth (free, immediate, images usually 1 to 3 years old)
Step 2: field survey to complete data base� Formal surveys; � visual inspection during site visits;
Step 3: land use measurements� Using a CAD -GIS program (Autodesk Map, ArcView, ArcGIS) measure areas,
lot size, land use types.Step 4: final analysis and diagnostic
� Graphs, tables and maps supporting evidence showing that market distortion are causing inefficiencies
� Identification of causes- example: poor regulations, insufficient primary infrastructure, land tenure fuzziness, etc.
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Kabul – Residential typology
The main outcome of the typology/market study was and evaluation of:• The total population of Kabul,• The built-up area, as opposed to the administrative area• The proportion that was informal• The total “replacement” value of the informal housing stock
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Addis Ababa housing affordability derived from a land market study (2002).
The analysis of land markets shows that the large number of households living in informal settlements is not due to a “lack of enforcement” of planning standards but to unaffordable standards.
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Interviewing real estate brokers is another way to add price data to a housing typologyBelow, real estate prices related to location, floor area and floor number as displayed by a real estate broker in Suining (Sichuan Province, China)
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Zhengzhou- Google Earth 2006 (image 2002), Ikonos 2004, Google Earth 2008 (image 2007) . In the long run, it will be possible to create land use time series with Google earth images (providing the images are downloaded on a regular basis)
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Cairo: Failure of government policy : informal sector growing within 7km from city center (top image), while government invest massively in infrastructure at 30 km from city center (bottom image).
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Conclusions
An understanding of the working of urban land markets can give specific insights to solve a number of very different problems:� Spatial structure� Housing affordability� Assets inflation� Rate of return of primary infrastructure, etc.
The recent availability of high resolution Google Earth images allows to conduct land use and land market studies in a few days