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Ms Gwen Andrews Chief Executive

Some practical approaches to implementing the Kyoto Protocol

ISO Sydney - September 2001

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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature last 1000 years

200

250

300

350

02004006008001000years before 2000 AD

CO

2 (

pp

m)

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

tem

pe

ratu

re (o

C)

Cape Grim and South PoleLaw Dome ice corestemperature change

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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature last 420,000 years

100

150

200

250

300

350

0100,000200,000300,000400,000years before present

CO

2 (

pp

m)

-10

0

10

20

tem

pe

ratu

re (o

C)

5

6

Observed Climate Change IPCC TAR 2001 Findings

There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warmingobserved over the last 50 years is attributable to humaninfluences.

Global average temperatures have increased by 0.4oC - 0.8oCsince 1861 – most in the last 50 years.

snow cover has decreased by 10% since the 1960s arctic sea ice cover has decreased by 40% in recent

decades. global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 metres projections are for 1.4oC – 5.8oC temperature rise and sea

level rise of 0.09 – 0.88m by 2100 depending on level ofworld action

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Impacts and Vulnerabilities IPCC TAR 2001 Findings

• Average rainfall in Australia will decrease and water resources will be stressed

• Some agricultural production may initially benefit , but this benefit will disappear over time

• Tropical vector borne diseases will spread south

• Tourism will be affected by sea rises, ocean warming and snow cover reduction

• Insurance industry will factor in weather related risk

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Total National Emissions 1990 - 1999*

390 393 394 396 399413

424434

453 458

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Mt

CO 2

-e

*Excludes Land Clearing

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Emissions by Sector1990 & 1999

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300S

tatio

nary

ener

gy

Tra

nspo

rt

Fug

itive

Indu

stria

l P

roce

sses

Agr

icul

ture

For

estr

y an

d O

ther

Was

te

Land

Cle

arin

g

1990

1999

Mt C

O2 -

e

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UNFCCC & Kyoto ProtocolUNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol

How targets can be met:

1. Reductions in emissions in own country

2. Sequestration from sinks

3. International emissions trading (IET)

4. Joint Implementation projects with another country which has a target (JI)

5. Projects within a developing country (CDM)

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Australia’s Kyoto ProtocolTarget and Status

Principle of differentiation/equal effort

Limiting greenhouse gas emissions to 8% above 1990 by 2008/2012

Reduction of about 30% from BAU projection(EU windfall - UK/Germany & USSR sitution)

1999 situation 17.4% above 1990 not including land clearing or 7.3% accounting for land clearing / sinks under KP accounting basis

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Australia’s circumstances

heavy reliance on fossil fuels

production of energy and greenhouse intensive exports

significant transport needs

changing land use patterns

higher projected population growth than other developed countries

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Government Response Overview

$ 1 Billion over Five Years

Safeguarding the Future: Prime Minister’s $ 180 million 5 year package of November 1997 (25 programs, including establishment of the AGO, the world’s first dedicated greenhouse agency)

Measures for a Better Environment: $796 million additional funding over 4 years announced in May 1999 in conjunction with the New Tax System, including the $400 million GGAP

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The Policy Framework

To meet Australia’s greenhouse commitment in the most cost-effective manner possible without compromising economic competitiveness

Basically a three pronged, but overlapping approach: Voluntary Action (eg GHC, CCP, GES, GF) Regulated Mechanisms (eg MEPS, VFL, ABC) Market Measures (eg MRET, GGAP, EC, ET)

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Standards and GreenhouseStandards and Greenhouse

• Sinks

• Renewable Energy systems

• Building and Construction standards

• Sulphur Hexaflouride

• Emissions abatement projects

• Others?

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Outcomes from COP 6 Outcomes from COP 6 BonnBonn

Agreement on implementation issues under the Protocol and the Convention, including:

• assistance to developing countries in adaptation and technology transfer

• a compliance package

• the operation of the market mechanisms

• inclusion of sinks

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International agenda International agenda - - what next?what next?

• Finish “translating” Bonn agreement into the detailed rules needed for implementing the Protocol (COP 7 in Marrakech)

• Resolution of outstanding ratification issues for Australia, e.g. pathway towards participation by all major emitters

• Response to any alternative proposals by the United States

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The Australian Greenhouse Officeis the lead

Commonwealth agency on greenhouse matters

www.greenhouse.gov.au