2nd Half of the SemesterMitigation of and Adaptation to Climate Change

Guest Lectures & Topics • Von Walden, Climate Downscaling—needed for design of

strategies, March 10• Craig Curtis, Living Building, March 28, 4 pm, ETRL 101• Mike Wolcott, built environment, building design, March 29• Mike Barber/Marshall Richmond, adaptation of hydrological

systems• Andy Ford, energy systems and Cap and Trade, April 19,21 • Bill Pan, agricultural systems/biofuels• Justin Steele, wind resources/renewable energy• Other suggestions?

Assignment

• Read Houghton, Chapts 8-10. • Review Wedges game web site– http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/game.php

Why we need to worry about mitigation and adaption?

• Earth in Balance—first principle from UN Conference, 1992: “Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature”

• Exploitation—rate of use of fossil fuels is not sustainable for the long term, (also true for rare earth elements, extensively used in technology)– Associated environmental effects are extensive and negative for water quality,

air quality, biological effects• Back-to-Nature--going back to a primitive lifestyle is not an option• Technical Fix--not a safe route, side effects of fixes are not known

(geoengineering issues)• Unity of the Earth—Gaia (Jim Lovelock) Hypothesis—the earth system is

very interdependent—tight coupling between living organisms and the environment—the earth system is a living organism which controls its environment

Gaia Defined

Gaia Development: An atmosphere out of equilibrium

One Gaia example:

O2 at 21% is an optimum setting for limited, but not uncontrollable wildfires

Why we need to worry about mitigation and adaption--continued

• Climate is changing—and is predicted to continue to change—evidence continues to mount

• There is a lag in the inertia of the earth system—things we do now will not take effect immediately—introduces the problem of long range planning, lack of immediate response

• Climate changes on a global scale, but the impacts occur regionally—effects will be different in different areas—response must match the expected impacts

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Climate is ChangingMoved outside the range of observed historical variation

Source: NOAA NCDC & USGCRP, 2009

Even recently observed temperature inflection points can be abrupt

Jeff Arnold US Army Corps of

Engineers | Institute for Water

Resources

Observed Temperature Changes Differ RegionallyNumerical Models Track Changes & Differences on Land & Water

But Only When Anthropogenic Forcings Are Included

Observed Hydrologic Changes Differ Regionally, Too

A – Spring Snowmelt Onset Anomaly

B – Annual Streamflow Volume Centroid Anomaly

Large circles at sites with significantly non-zero effects at 90% CI. Small circles at sites with effects not confidently identified.

Adapted from Dettinger, 2005.

Jeff Arnold US Army Corps of

Engineers | Institute for Water

Resources

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Model-Projected Temperature Increases Are LargeActual Current Emissions

Exceed Highest IPCC SRES Emissions

Source: NOAA NCDC & USGCRP, 2009.

Atmospheric CO2, Temperature, & Sea LevelWill All Still Rise Long After Emissions Mitigation Starts

So Adaptation & Mitigation Measures Must Begin Together

mitigation : avoid the unmanageable

adaptation : manage the unavoidable

Mitigation and Adaptation Defined

• Mitigation—do what is needed to avoid the unmanageable– Reduce GHG emissions to slow down, stabilize

climate change• Adaptation—do what is needed to manage the

unavoidable– Plan now for the consequences of climate change,

sea level rise, etc. • Other definitions?

Role of uncertaintyMajor sources of uncertainty

• Sources & sinks of GHG gases, including feedback effects

• Clouds, which strongly influence the magnitude of climate change

• Oceans, which influence timing and patterns of climate change

• Polar ice-sheets, which affect predictions of sea level rise

Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climates

Future climate projections are inherently uncertain … But this is not a show-stopper

– Already accustomed to making decisions under uncertainty

– Need to avoid reflexive reaction to reduce uncertainty before we have fully explored it

– Must consider all plausible futures

– Ensures that decisions and actions are robust and can be adapted to future changing conditions

Graphic: courtesy Stainforth, 2010 (personal communication)http://climateprediction.net/content/experiments

Some guidelines– Use of “most likely future conditions” for evaluating alternatives– Scenarios “shall only be used as sensitivity tests” – Probability or likelihood of each future condition shall be presented

However … this approach may not be consistent with application of robust decision-making processes under uncertainty with multiple possible futures

in play

Uncertainty Considerations for Future Planning and Response

Some Mitigation and Adaptation Realities

1- Climate is changing, & together with other global changes in population size & distribution, urbanization, fuel-use & fuel-switching, etc., will dramatically alter variety of natural and coupled human systems.2- Earth system lags mean that adaptation & mitigation measures must begin now & together – delay increases costs, & independence will reduce effectiveness.3- Adaptation must be scaled to the local & regional climate change effects

Key Principles for Adaptation and Mitigation

• Sustainable Development—meeting the needs of the present without comprising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs – Implies both mitigation and adaptation (given our lack of sustainable development to

this point) • Precautionary Principle --where there are threats of serious or irreversible

damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation

• Polluter-Pays Principle—promote the internationalization of environmental costs, using the approach that the polluter should bear the cost, with due regard to the public interest and wihtout distorting international trade and investment

• Equity Principle– the right to development must be fulfilled equitably to meet developmental and

environmental rights of present and future generations– Everyone shall cooperate to eradicate poverty as an indispensable requirement for

sustainable development, in order to decrease disparities in standards of living and meet the needs of all peoples of the world

Global Economics• Costs of damages due to sea level rise, increased frequency of storms, droughts, etc

– Predictions suggest that these damages will occur– 1% to 4% of GDP for developed countries– 5% to 10% of GDP in undeveloped countries

• Costs of adaptation to reduce the extent of damage due to climate change impacts– Observations and predictions suggest that climate change is occurring, some adaptation will

be required• Costs of mitigation to reduce the amount of climate change

– Effectiveness and costs depends on when and how mitigation is addressed• Social cost of current carbon emissions--$25/ton CO2 to $85/ton CO2 (damages

associated with current emissions)• Short term cost effective measures to reduce climate change

– improve energy generation efficiency and use non-fossil fuel energy sources– Improve energy use efficiency

• Long term mitigation costs– Depends on stabilization target– At 550 ppm by 2050, cost is 1% to 4% of GDP for developed countries– These costs are similar to or much less than damage costs

Adaptation and Mitigation: How to Proceed?

• What is the strategy?– Note that changes we make now, won’t take effect immediately—the time lag is a

critical part of mitigation strategies• What sectors of society need to be able to adapt?• What sectors of society are candidates for mitigation? • Which GHG should we mitigate? (why)

– CO2 vs CH4, N2O, others• Where should mitigation occur?

– developed countries vs undeveloped countries• How can mitigation be encouraged or required?• How can adaptation be encouraged of required?• Who pays? • What about new technologies for mitigation or adaptation?• Is there a win-win situation for mitigation?