20 Years of Reforms

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20 Years of Reforms (1991 to 2011)

A: Index

1. Bharat India Divide

2. Economic Indices Overview

3. Agriculture Overview

4. Social Indices Overview

5. Manmohan: CEO cum politician (Overview)

6. Manmohan Speak: Relevant quotes from his speeches/addresses/press

conferences

7. World on Manmohan

8. Indian opposition on Manmohan

9. Manmohans: Unfinished agenda

10. Reform Chronology

11. Annexure: Year-wise key social indicators

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1. Bharat India Divide:

The basic challenge of our time is to ensure that wealth creation is not only

tempered by equity and justice but is harnessed to the goal of removal of

poverty and development for all.

Dr Manmohan Singh, FM Budget Speech, July 24 1991

Have & Have Nots: Debate Rages 20 Years down the Line

Poverty Index of India Wealth Index of India

37% of people in India live below

the poverty line.

Source: Tendulkar Committee

report (Accepted By Planning

commission of India)

Submitted in 2009.

55 Indian dollar billionaires contributing

to about 4.5% of total 1210 billionaires

across six continents.

Forbes revised( March 2011 rat ings)

77% of Indians live on less than

20 a day

India has 25 dollar billionaires and 35

near billionaires (with wealth in the $500

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Source: Arjun Sengupta Report

(from National Commission for

Enterprises in the Unorganized

Sector)

Submitted April 2009

million-$1 billion range)

Source: Credit Sussies Global Wealth

Report 2010

50% of Indians l ive below the

poverty line.

Source: N.C. Saxena Committee

report

Submitted to govt. during 2010

India has got

1,080 Ultra High Networth Individuals

(HNIs)

(Wealth Strata $50 million- $500 million)

7,800 Loaded HNIs

(Wealth Strata $10 million-$50 million)

12,700 richer HNIs.


147,400 Just HNIs.


Source: Credit Sussies Global Wealth

Report 2010

645 million poor living under the

Multi- dimensional Poverty Index

(MPI) in India.

421 mill ion of whom are

concentrated in eight North Indian

and East Indian states of Bihar ,

Chattisgarh, Jharkhand , Madhya

The poorest 10 per cent in India spent

32.3 per cent less in rural parts than their

counterparts in urban areas.

This inequality rose to Rs 3,347 when

comparison is made between the top 10

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Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar

Pradesh and Bengal, higher than

the 410 million poor living in the

26 poorest African nations

Source: Oxford Poverty and

Human Development Initiative

Submitted 2010

per cent in the urban and rural areas.

The wealthiest 10 per cent of the urbanpopulation spent 133 per cent more on

consumption per capita in a month than

its equivalent class in rural areas.

Average per capita expenditure by

households was Rs 1,053.6 in a month in

rura l areas and Rs 1,984.5 in urban parts.

(2009-10)

State-wise, Bihar has the lowest average

per capita monthly household

consumption expenditure, both rural and

urban. It was Rs 780 in rural Bihar and

Rs 1,238 in urban parts. Kerala

households had the highest expenditure

on consumption (Rs 1,835). Maharashtra

topped the list in urban areas (Rs 2,437).

(2009-10)

Source: National sample

survey(NSSO)2009-10

80% of India's population lives on

less than $2 a day which means a

higher proportion of its population

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lives on less than $2 per day as

compared with sub-Saharan

Africa.

Source: World Bank 2009

Note: Poverty definition in India varies

because of varying determinants. From

calorie in take to per day earning to overall

consumption patterns, definitions vary

About 49 per cent of the world's

underweight children, 34 per cent

of the world's stunted children and

46 per cent of the world's wasted

children, live in India.

Source: World Health Organization

2009

390 million Indians now belong to the

middle class; one-third of them have

emerged from poverty in the last ten

years. At the current rate of growth, a

majority of Indians will be middle-class

by 2025.

Source: Marvin J. Cetron 200;(Founder of

"Forecasting International")

Note: Consumer class size estimate varies from 300

million to 500 million

2 Economic Indices Overview

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The UNDP Human Development Index (HDI) is a comparative measure of life expectancy,

literacy, education and standards of living for countries worldwide. The position 20 years down

the line has worsened.

Human Development Index of India

Sl No Year Rank(India)

1 2010 119

2 2005 120

3 2000 102

4 1995 102

5 1990 95

Performance of poor countries that have performed better than India with respect to

Human Development Index (HDI )

S No. Countries Rank

1 India 119

2 Sri Lanka 91

3 Namibia 105

4 Uzbekistan 91

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GDP Rate

1991 2011

2.50% 8.60%

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Source:http://planningcommission.nic.in

India Current Account to GDP

1991 2011

-1.50% -3.20%

Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/current-account-to-gdp

Exchange rate

1991 (in Rupees) 2011 (in Rupees)

26.5 45.2

Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/current-account-to-gdp

FDI

1991-92(in US$ Mill ions) 2010-11(in US$ Mill ions)

133 1,274

Source: Indiaonestop and ibef

India Inflation Rate

1991 2011

13.25 % 8.72%

Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/inflation-cpi

Fiscal deficit

1990-91 2010-11

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8.4 % 5.10%

Source:http://www.rediff.com/money

India Exports(Millions USD)

1994 2011

1980 25941

Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/exports

India imports (Millions USD)

1994 2011

1995 40906

Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/impo

Foreign Exchange Reserves

1991 ( in billion U.S

dollar )

2011( in billion U.S dollar )

Total

Reserve

s

1.2

(India had just enough to meet

three weeks imports and had to

mortgage gold)

315.72

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India Government Debt to GDP

1990-91 2010-11

73.00% 69.20%

Source:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/government-debt-to-gdp

Tax Slab (Rupees)

Year Minimum Tax (In Rupees) Tax Rate Exemption Limit (In Rupees)

1991 22000 20 100000

2011 18000 10 180000

Source: caclubindia.com

India Stock Market Index (Sensex)

1991 2011

1000-1200 range 18678

India Industrial Production

1994 2011

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16.50% 5.60%

91 data not immediately available

Source:www.tradingeconomics.com/india

India Unemployment Rate

1991 2011

5.90% 9.40%

Source:www.tradingeconomics.com/india

3. Agriculture Overview

AGRICULTURE

GDP Rate Employment rate from

Agriculture

Other Rate

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In 2009-10, the GDP for

agriculture and allied

sectors accounted for 14.6

per cent of the GDP

compared to 15.7 per cent

in 2008-09.

The agriculture sector accounts

for about 58 per cent of

employment in the country (as

per 2001 census). This sector is

a supplier of food, fodder, and

raw materials for a vast

segment of industry.

In terms of composition, out of

a total share of 14.6 per cent of

the GDP in 2009-10 for

agriculture and allied sectors,

agricultu re alone accounted for

12.3 per cent followed by

forestry and logging at 1.5 per

cent and fisheries at 0.8 per

cent.

Agriculture; value added (annual % growth) in India

1991-92 2010-11

0 1.6

Agriculture Credit Announcement by Pranab

Mukherjee in Budget 2011

Number of farmer suicide

To boost agricultural

credit flow, the finance

minister announced a

higher target, aiming to

take agricultura l credit

to R4.75 lakh crore for

the next fiscal from

R3.75 lakh crore in the

current fiscal.

"In the last Budget, I had

provided an additional 2%

interest subvention to those

farmers who repay their

crop loan on time. In order

to provide further incentive

to these farmers, I propose

to enhance the additional

subvention to 3% in 2011-

12," Mukherjee said.

As per the

National Crime

Records Bureau

(NCRB) there

are at least

16,196 farmers

suicides in India

in 2008, bringing

the total since

1997 to 199,132.

At least 17,368 Indian

farmers killed

themselves in 2009,

the worst figure for

farmer suicides in six

years, according to the

data of NCRB.

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Source: NCRB: Singh as PM so far has not met intended agriculture growth

Domestic Production

Wheat in million tons Rice in million tons1997-98 2010-11 1997-98 2010-11

66.35 84.27 82.54 94.11

Source: IBEF

4. Social Indices

Literacy rate

YEAR OVERALL

LITERACY

RATE(%)

MALE (%) FEMALE (%) GAP IN

LITERACY

RATE (%)

1991 52.21 64.13 39.29 24.84

2011 74.04 82.14 65.46 16.68

Source: Census 2011 report

Number of school dropouts in India:

Year Percentage (91 data not readily available)

2000 67

2006 61.62

Source: Ministry of HRD 05-06 report

Sex Ratio:

YEAR RATIO(OVERALL) 0-6 YEARS

1991 927 945

2011 940 914

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Source: Census 2011 report

Basic Health Indicators

Bed Strength in Government Institutions: NRHM

Year Number (early data not readily available)

2005 4,69,559

2009 5,40,328

Source:NRHM :

Maternal Mortality Rates

YEAR RATIO

1997-98 398

2007-09 212

Source: SRS

Infant Mortality Rate

YEAR RATIO

1990 80

2009 50

Source: SRS

Under 5 Mortality Rate:

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YEAR RATIO

1990 118

2009 64

Source: SRS

Total Fertility rate

YEAR RATIO

1990 3.8

2009 2.6

Source: SRS

Consumer:

Food inflation Rate

1991 2011

14.10% 9.44%

Source: IBEF

Teledensity

1991 2011

0.60% 67.67%

Share of rural households in total consumer expenditure in food products

Serial

Number

Food

Items

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10

1. Food total 63.2(%) 59.4(%) 55.0(%) 53.6(%)

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Source:NSSO

Share of urban households in total consumer expenditure in food products

Serial

Number

Food

Items

1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10

1. Food total 54.7(%) 48.1(%) 42.5(%) 40.7(%)

Source: NSSO

Share of rural households in total consumer expenditure in non-food products

Serial No Items group 1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10

1. Non food

total

36.8% 40.6% 45.0% 46.4%

Source:NSSO

Share of urban households in total consumer expenditure in non- food products

Serial No Items group 1993-94 1999-2000 2004-05 2009-10

1. Non food

total

45.3% 51.9% 57.5% 59.3%

Source: NSSO

5. Manmohan: CEO cum politician (Overview)

Dr. Manmohan Singh to retire from Rajya Sabha on 14 June 2013: Almost two year from now).

Highs

MPLAD Performance of Dr. Manmohan Singh (Amount in Crores)

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Entitleme

nt Released

Amount

Recommende

d

Amount

Sanctione

d

Expenditu

re

Incurred

% of

Utilisation

Unspent

Balance

32.05 31.05 29.6 29.5 28.93 93.17 2.88

Alliances which joined to form the coalition

Party Term of Joining UPA

National Conference UPA 1

Jharkhand Vikas Morcha UPA 2

Bills Passed With Singh as PM:

Year Contents

1 The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Bill, 2005

2 The Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2005

3 The Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers

(Recognition of Forest Rights) Bi ll, 2005

4 The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board Bill, 2005

5 The Cable Television Networks (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2006

6 The Information Technology (Amendment) Bill, 2006

7 The Indian Telegraph (Amendment) Bill, 2006

8 The Sports Broadcasting Signals (Mandatory Sharing with Prasar

Bharati) Bill, 2007

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9 The Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum Technology Bill, 2007

10 The Science and Engineering Research Board Bill, 2008

11 The Prasar Bharti (Broadcasting Corporation of India) Amendment

Bill, 2008

12 The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation

Amendement Bill in 2008

13 The National Green Tribunal Bill, 2009

14 The Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill, 2010

15 The Energy Conservation (Amendment Bill, 2010

Hurdles Passed by Dr. Manmohan Singh

1. Civil Nuclear Liability Bill Passed

After months of wrangling between treasury benches and the opposition the Civil

Nuclear Liability Bill passed through in August 2010.

2. Cut Motion

After the t rust vote on nuclear issue UPA government faced the cut motion. However after

gaining support from Mayawat i led BSP UPA easily passed through it on 27 Apri l 2010.

Lows

Dr. Manmohan Singh lost the only election he fought in 1999

S.N

o Candidate Name

Part

y Vote Secured % of Votes Secured

1 Vijay Kumar Malhotra BJP 261230 52.25

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2 Dr. Manmohan Singh INC 231231 46.25

Source: PRS Legislat ion Research

Alliances which left UPA under Singh

Party Term of breaking the Alliance

Telangana Rashtra Samithi UPA 1

Marumalarchi Dravida Munnet ra

Kazhagam UPA 1

Left Front UPA 1

People's Democratic Party UPA 1

Pattali Makkal Katchi UPA 1

Bahujan Samaj Party UPA 1

Rashtriya Janata Dal UPA 2

Samajwadi Party UPA 2

Bills pending:

Serial

Number

Bills

1 The Coal Mines (National isat ion) Amendment Bil l, 2000

2 The Telecom Regulatory Author ity of India (Amendment) B il l, 2008

3

The Protection and Util isation of Public Funded Intellectual Property Bil l,

2008

4

The Prasar Bharati (Broadcasting Corporation of India) Amendment Bill,

2010

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5 The Academy of Scienti fic and Innovative Research Bi ll , 2010

6 The Chemical Weapons Convent ion (Amendment) Bi ll , 2010

7

The Petroleum and Minerals Pipelines (Acquisition of Right of User in

Land) Amendment Bil l, 2010


Bills Lapsed

Serial Number Bill

1 The Damodar Valley Corporation (Amendment) Bill, 2007

2 The Compensatory Afforestation Fund Bill, 2008


Manmohan Speaks

The politician setting the agenda

PM-UPA 1: Main agenda is to accomplish seven sutras (agriculture, education,

health, employment, urban renewal, infrastructure facilities and enhancement of

irrigation facilit ies.) empowerment of women ,growth of small and medium

industries, to set up Krishi Vigyan Kendra, insisted on building of Golden

Quadrilateral for connecting the roads, to work rapidly to boost up the flagships

programme like NREGA , NRHM, Bharat Nirman , bringing out legislation for

SC/STs, reservation of women in parliament.

PM-UPA 2: The growth rate came down to 6.7 % because of global economic crisis,

goal is to get a 4% annual growth in agriculture by five years, new scheme will be

started to help students from economically weaker sections of society by way of

reduced interest rate on their education loans, work to prevent terrorist attacks and

naxalism, Unique Identification Authority has been set.

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On Rajiv Gandhi: I miss a handsome, smiling, face listening intently to the Budget

Speech. Shri Rajiv Gandhi is no more. But his dream l ives on; his dream of ushering

India into the twenty-firscentury; his dream of a strong, united, technologically

sophisticated but humane India. I dedicate this budget to his inspiring memory .

.Budget speech 1991-92 as Finance Minister

On Jawaharlal Nehru: "All of us talk of India and all of us demand many things

from India. What do we give her in return?" Panditji asked, and he said, "India will

ultimately give us what we give her of love and service and productive and creative

work. India will be what we are: our thoughts and actions will shape her 2004

15 August speech.

On Mahatama Gandhi: a)"I want the winds from every corner to blow through my

house" Gandhij i said, "but I refuse to be swept off my feet by any of them.. 2004

speech of Manmohan Singh as PM 15 August.

b) I will work for an India where the poorest of the

poor feel that this country and this nation belongs to them and that they have a

major role in its construction. An India where there is no higher class or lower class

among all people, 2005 speech on 15 August.

c) Nature has given us enough for everyones need, but not

for everyones greed.. 2007 speech of Manmohan Singh as PM 15 August

Note: These quotes are highlighted to il lustrate Dr Singhs polit ical journey and can be

used as per story/programme focus

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6. World on Manmohan Singh

Barrack Obama: 9/05/10

Your Prime Minister is our Guru; He called Manmohan Singh during Copenhagen Climate

Summit on 9 May 2010.

Yousuf Raza Gilani: PM Pakistan: 12/04/11Indian Prime Minister ManmohanSingh is a 'sensible and saner' person who wants to resolve all issues between the

two countries.

Former IAEA chief: Mohamad El Bardei: He is the model of what a political

leader should be. August 18, 2010 (Newsweek)

2010: Newsweek ranked him the top political leader among 10 best heads of

states

Forbes on Singh: usually praised as Indias best PM since Nehru

AsiaMoney Best FM award: 93 and 94; Euromoney Best FM Award 94

7. Indian Opposition view on Manmohan (select quotes)

LK Advani:

"When I had said during the 2009 Lok Sabha election campaign that I have seen all the

prime ministers since Jawaharlal Nehru but I feel pity for Prime Minister Manmohan

Singh because I have never seen such a weak pr ime minister, many people said that I

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should not say this because many people feel bad about it," said Advani while

addressing a mammoth ral ly in Kolkata.

Nitin Gadkari : 30 /06/11

"The PM had said from the Red Fort that prices would be controlled within 100 days. In

March again, he said price rise would be brought under control. Today he is saying that he does

not have a magic wand to control prices.... Why do you make the promise if you can't act on

them?" he asked.

Arun Jaitley: 08/06/11

The Bharatiya Janata Party has said that the Uni ted Progressive Alliance government was

like a private company, where Prime Min ister Manmohan Singh was the CEO while i ts owner

was "somebody else."

Narender Modi: 14/04/11 Ambedkarji gave us the Constitution, and the

Constitution gave us the right to vote. To know that the Prime Minister did not

vote in the assembly polls is a very saddening act, for the people of the country,"

he said.

8. Dr. Manmohan Singhs unfinished agenda

Unfinished Agenda's for Dr. Manmohan Singh

Sector Status

Inflation

Manmohan Singh now says that inflat ion will come down

to 6.5 per cent by March 2012. In July last year the

finance minister asserted: I do believe that annual rate of

inflation will be 5-6 per cent by end of 2010. The Prime

Minister told the NDC that inflation would dip to 6 percent by December 2010.

Fuel Inflation Acceleration in fuel inflation has affected the UPA cause.

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GST

UPA government still looking for consensus of state

governments on GST.

FDI in Retail Secretaries committee preparing cabinet note

Banking/Financial Sector No consensus yet with in the government.

9. Reform Chronology

Year Contents

1991-92 Manmohan Singh as Finance Minister , rupee devalued 18% about 80 %

industries delicensed, disinvestment starts , mops up Rs 3,000 crore ,

fertilizer price hikes to reduce sops, 51 % of FDI allowed in important

sectors.

1992-93 FM Manmohan Singh; I-T rates , slab cut , wealth tax on productive assets

off, excise shifted from specific duty to ad valorem .Many import curbs

lif ted : customers duties cut , peak tar iffs down to 110%, ONGC corporatized ,

govt cuts stake in Maruti to 50% , private sector enters value added telecom ,

private equity in roads , oil refining.

1993-94 FM Manmohan Singh

Excise slabs merged, dual exchange rates merged, capital gains tax on FIIs

cut, SBI enters IPO market , cars white goods deli censed, power projects

get tax breaks , disinvestment flops


Bulk drugs deli censed, 51% of FDI allowed, divestment increases toRs 5, 000

crore , pvt players in telecom , first cell services in metro , telecom bids

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attract Rs 100,000 crore run into trouble , Enron enters Mahrashtra , first

private airlines : Jet , East West , Damania.


First foreign car maker, Daewoo, makes Cielo , Trail set up : disinvestment

flops : SBI l ists overseas . Kelkar draws up 7-year oil deregulation plan.

1996-97 FM P.Chidambaram

Corporate surcharge cut to 7.5% ; import duties cut 48 industr ies can get 51%

automatic FDI. Consumer electronics delicensed . Disinvestment

Commission set up.

1997-98 FM P.Chidambaram

IT slashed from 40% to 30% , corporate tax rate cut , tax breaks go , MAT in,

dividened tax on individuals off, tax breaks for telecom , power , oil

exploration . more industr ies got automatic FDI, NRIs can invest 100% in

private sector, fixed interest rate regime relaxed, telecom licenses tradable,

RBI gets power to regulate NBFCs after CRB scam

1998-99 FM : Yashwant Sinha Saral , IT import duties cut , tax holiday for tech

sector , free import for 340 things : QRs on Saarc impor ts go .

1999-

2000

FM : Yashwant Sinha

Excise slabs cut from 11 to 3, customs cut from 7 to 5 , customs duty cut ,

housing taxes liberal ized, QRs liberal ized on 13,000 things, IRDA legislated,

FEMA replaces FERA, disinvestment flops, Modern foods privat ized.

2000-01 FM : Yashwant Sinha

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Cenvat hikes effective taxes, customs duty up, export tax breaks to be

phased out, QR regimes ends, IRDA sets norms for pvt insurers, 11 players

enter , disinvestment flops: Marut i to be privatized, Orissa begins power

reforms


Cell players challenge decision to let WLL go mobile, Ministry of

disinvestment formed, Balco, VSNL, IPCL , hotels go on the black . Highway

project renamed golden quadrila teral.


Incentives to private highway project developers, row over decision to sell

BPCL , HPCL, selloffs staffed, Delhi power distribut ion privatized , 20 year

plan to link rivers.

2003-04 FM:Jaswant Singh

I-T rates cut marginally , excise cuts drop prices on cars , ACs , customs

rate cut : small savings rate cut , Unified telecom license , Reliance , ONGC ,

Caim make oil and gas discoveries , PSU equity sales net Rs 15, 000 cr,

privatization off.

REFORM CHRONOLOGY CONTINUED

Sector (2004-11) Status

MGNREGA

Flagship job guarantee scheme: During financial year2010-11, the scheme has provided employment to more

than 5.3 crore households through about 50lakh works.

But charges of mismanagement abound

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NRHM

The National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) has made

remarkable progress in strengthening healthcare delivery

systems in the country. Leakages and loot under the

scheme charges occur in states.

Corporate Governance

Reforms

MCA21 e-Governance project was implemented as a

mission mode project under the National e-Governance

Plan (NeGP) for operation from 20-registry locations for

facilitating business, and reducing documentation to the

minimum.

Micro, Small and Medium

Enterprises

PM chairs a committee to make micro small and medium

enterprises the cornerstone of Indian economy; task force

recommendations under consideration

Peoples ownership of

public sector enterprises

CMP and Congress manifesto wants retail investor to be

the key beneficiary of the PSU divestment through IPO;

facts on ground suggest retail investors got only 24 per

cent share, even lesser than what they got from private

sector IPO listings during UPA regime

New telecom services

Auction of 3G and broadband wireless access (BWA)

spectrum was done successfully. 2G scam continues to

haunt the govt. for licenses it gave in 2006 and 08

Mines

A Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Bill,

2011 has been drafted to replace the existing Mines and

Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957

ZRG GLASS HALF

FULL OR HALF EMPTY?


27/30


LITERACY RATE:

YEAR OVERALL

LITERACY

RATE(%)

MALE (%) FEMALE (%) GAP IN

LITERACY

RATE (%)

1991 52.21 64.13 39.29 24.84

2001 64.83 75.26 53.67 21.59

2011 74.04 82.14 65.46 16.68

Number of school dropouts in India:

Year percentage

2000 67

2001 68.60

2002 66

2003 62.58

2004 62.69

2005 61.92

2006 61.62

Minist ry of HRD 05-06 report

SEX RATIO:

YEAR RATIO(OVERALL) 0-6 YEARS

1991 927 945

2001 933 927

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2011 940 914

BASIC HEALTH INDICATORS

Bed Strength in Government Institutions: NRHM

Year Number

2005 4,69,559

2009 5,40,328

MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO:

YEAR RATIO

1997-98 398

1999-2000 327

2001-03 301

2004-06 254

2007-09 212

INFANT MORTALITY RATE

YEAR RATIO

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1990 80

1995 74

2000 68

2005 58

2009 50

UNDER 5 MORTALITY RATE

YEAR RATIO

1990 118

1995 97

2000 85

2005 77

2009 64

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

YEAR RATIO

1990 3.8

1995 3.5

2000 3.2

2005 2.9

ZRG GLASS HALF

FULL OR HALF EMPTY?


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2009 2.6

ZRG GLASS HALF

FULL OR HALF EMPTY?

Date post:	14-Apr-2018
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20 Years of Reforms

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