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Iran – Hezbollah
A Persian Journey?A Shia Journey?
A Crusade against Colonialism?
Graeme GoldsworthyTeam Coach, Pax Ludens
October 2009
Iran as Persia
Early encounters with the ‘Barbarian’ west
Marathon 492 BC
Thermopylae 480BC
Alexander the Great
Persia has her first taste of Western Civilisation
More Recently
Seleucid successorsIndependent of Roman
EmpireOttoman resistance
British Influence from India, Oil factor
WW2 divisionsPost WW2
1953
1979Two key factors converge
Iranian Revolution Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan
Iran – Iraq War1980-1988 (1)
US proxy conflictResource basedTerritorialSecular - Theocratic
Iran – Iraq War1980-1988 (2)
War of the CitiesUse of WMDTanker WarMartyrdom of the SephahIsolation of Iran
The 1980sIran begins the return to the Mediterranean coast
Chaos of Lebanese Civil WarEffectively replace PLORally and recruit Shia in LebanonBuilds HezbollahSephah Pasadaran-e trg cadresSpectacular attacks, kidnappingsEffective resistance to US, IsraelUndermines SLA …..By 2000, forces Israel from South
Lebanon
2006 and the (Re) Capture of Tyre
Hezbollah controls Tyre
‘Our’Iranians
ExilesWesternised2nd and 3rd generationStudentsDecadent
‘Their’ Iranians
1979 – Class system invertedLaatsBasij
The Private societyOpium culture
Attitudes
Use of languageUse of rhetoricVisual displaysDemonstrations
Privacy
Negotiation
Iran does not negotiate unless negotiation is deployed as a weapon
Gholov(Superior)
Extreme rhetoric, boasting, bombastic……
…macho behaviour“I want to fuck your sister”
“Death to America”
Ta’arouf(Inferior)
Insulting an opponent using extremes of modest
language and gestures
Holocaust denial…“I do not believe such a
thing could be perpetrated by such a
civilised people”
Iranian Long term ambitions
Establish hegemony in Middle EastEstablish Shia ascendancy over that hegemonyLead the counter forces to Western ColonialismEject West from the regionControl Resources
Short – Medium term goals
Subvert LebanonShia convert southern SyriaDestabilise Saudi ArabiaRearm conventional forcesMaintain progress toward nuclear statusIncrease influence in AfghanistanCompletely control the Straights of Hormuz
The Sepah Pasadaran-e InqilabThe Revolutionary Guard Corps
Defenders of the Revolution and the State
Laats and BasijsWorking and religious classes
Quds (Jerusalem) ForceHezbollah
Hamas
Iran and Hezbollah
HezbollahIran’s military, political, social and economic proxy in the
Lebanon
Iranian supplied missile ranges
The Players
Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Manoucheher Mottaki
Ali Vahidi
Hezbollah
Hassan Nasrallah
Sheikh Naim Kassam
Individual Role Profile (IRP)
• Biography (who is this person, in depth)• Function (Political, Military role)• Mandate• External Position and Internal Position• Friends and Enemies• Supporters• Agenda (and Secret Agenda)• Active / Passive• Quotes
Team Profile and Strategies
Historical backgroundDiplomatic relationsEconomic relationsMilitary relationsState InformationPolitical organisationGeographical, Economic and
Demographic dataMilitary data (ORBATs)Flags and emblems(Agenda and Secret Agenda)
And one final tip for negotiating Iran – Hezbollah
style….- Shia Islam is above all a Political Religion
- Islam forbids lying- Politicians lie…….Thus the concept of;
‘Taghiyeh’
One may lie, sanctioned by God in order to protect the life of the believer (and conceal one’s faith)
There is only one god
Iran is Hezbollah and Hezbollah is Iran
Q and A